Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China
The potential demand of battery electric vehicle (BEV) is the base of the decision-making to the government policy formulation, enterprise manufacture capacity expansion, and charging infrastructure construction. How to predict the future amount of BEV accurately is very important to the development...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/7801837 |
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| author | Shunxi Li Hang Chen Guofang Zhang |
| author_facet | Shunxi Li Hang Chen Guofang Zhang |
| author_sort | Shunxi Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The potential demand of battery electric vehicle (BEV) is the base of the decision-making to the government policy formulation, enterprise manufacture capacity expansion, and charging infrastructure construction. How to predict the future amount of BEV accurately is very important to the development of BEV both in practice and in theory. The present paper tries to compare the short-term accuracy of a proposed modified Bass model and Lotka-Volterra (LV) model, by taking China’s BEV development as the case study. Using the statistics data of China’s BEV amount of 21 months from Jan 2015 to Sep 2016, we compare the simulation accuracy based on the value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and discuss the forecasting capacity of the two models according to China’s government expectation. According to the MAPE value, the two models have good prediction accuracy, but the Bass model is more accurate than LV model. Bass model has only one dimension and focuses on the diffusion trend, while LV model has two dimensions and mainly describes the relationship and competing process between the two populations. In future research, the forecasting advantages of Bass model and LV model should be combined to get more accurate predicting effect. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3bbbc6e8f7864857a4453b306a0e4c30 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0197-6729 2042-3195 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-3bbbc6e8f7864857a4453b306a0e4c302025-08-20T02:08:00ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952017-01-01201710.1155/2017/78018377801837Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of ChinaShunxi Li0Hang Chen1Guofang Zhang2School of Automotive Engineering, Hubei Key Laboratory of Advanced Technology for Automotive Components and Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Automotive Components Technology, Wuhan University of Technology, Hubei 430070, ChinaSchool of Automotive Engineering, Hubei Key Laboratory of Advanced Technology for Automotive Components and Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Automotive Components Technology, Wuhan University of Technology, Hubei 430070, ChinaSchool of Automotive Engineering, Hubei Key Laboratory of Advanced Technology for Automotive Components and Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Automotive Components Technology, Wuhan University of Technology, Hubei 430070, ChinaThe potential demand of battery electric vehicle (BEV) is the base of the decision-making to the government policy formulation, enterprise manufacture capacity expansion, and charging infrastructure construction. How to predict the future amount of BEV accurately is very important to the development of BEV both in practice and in theory. The present paper tries to compare the short-term accuracy of a proposed modified Bass model and Lotka-Volterra (LV) model, by taking China’s BEV development as the case study. Using the statistics data of China’s BEV amount of 21 months from Jan 2015 to Sep 2016, we compare the simulation accuracy based on the value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and discuss the forecasting capacity of the two models according to China’s government expectation. According to the MAPE value, the two models have good prediction accuracy, but the Bass model is more accurate than LV model. Bass model has only one dimension and focuses on the diffusion trend, while LV model has two dimensions and mainly describes the relationship and competing process between the two populations. In future research, the forecasting advantages of Bass model and LV model should be combined to get more accurate predicting effect.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/7801837 |
| spellingShingle | Shunxi Li Hang Chen Guofang Zhang Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| title | Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China |
| title_full | Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China |
| title_fullStr | Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China |
| title_short | Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China |
| title_sort | comparison of the short term forecasting accuracy on battery electric vehicle between modified bass and lotka volterra model a case study of china |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/7801837 |
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