Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016
Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and internationa...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Integrative Agriculture |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095311920632440 |
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| author | Jian-zhai WU Jing ZHANG Zhang-ming GE Li-wei XING Shu-qing HAN Chen SHEN Fan-tao KONG |
| author_facet | Jian-zhai WU Jing ZHANG Zhang-ming GE Li-wei XING Shu-qing HAN Chen SHEN Fan-tao KONG |
| author_sort | Jian-zhai WU |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square (FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results: (1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2 (1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2 (0.014%). (2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China. (3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3ba9db4fefa74fc3b50ec6fcb348a789 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2095-3119 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Integrative Agriculture |
| spelling | doaj-art-3ba9db4fefa74fc3b50ec6fcb348a7892025-08-20T03:58:22ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Journal of Integrative Agriculture2095-31192021-01-0120128929910.1016/S2095-3119(20)63244-0Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016Jian-zhai WU0Jing ZHANG1Zhang-ming GE2Li-wei XING3Shu-qing HAN4Chen SHEN5Fan-tao KONG6Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Big Data, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, P.R.ChinaAgricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Big Data, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, P.R.ChinaAgricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Big Data, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, P.R.ChinaAgricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Big Data, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, P.R.ChinaAgricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Big Data, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, P.R.ChinaAgricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Big Data, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, P.R.ChinaInstitute of Special Animal and Plant Sciences, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Jilin 130112, P.R.China; Correspondence KONG Fan-tao, Tel: +86-10-82108082Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square (FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results: (1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2 (1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2 (0.014%). (2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China. (3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095311920632440climate changemaize yieldFGLS modelChina |
| spellingShingle | Jian-zhai WU Jing ZHANG Zhang-ming GE Li-wei XING Shu-qing HAN Chen SHEN Fan-tao KONG Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016 Journal of Integrative Agriculture climate change maize yield FGLS model China |
| title | Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016 |
| title_full | Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016 |
| title_fullStr | Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016 |
| title_short | Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016 |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on maize yield in china from 1979 to 2016 |
| topic | climate change maize yield FGLS model China |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095311920632440 |
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