Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread
Abstract Climate and infectious diseases each present critical challenges on a warming planet, as does the influence of climate on disease. Both are governed by nonlinear feedbacks, which drive multi‐annual cycles in disease outbreaks and weather patterns. Although climate and weather can influence...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2025-02-01
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| Series: | GeoHealth |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GH001193 |
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| author | Maya V. Chung Gabriel A. Vecchi Wenchang Yang Bryan Grenfell C. Jessica Metcalf |
| author_facet | Maya V. Chung Gabriel A. Vecchi Wenchang Yang Bryan Grenfell C. Jessica Metcalf |
| author_sort | Maya V. Chung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate and infectious diseases each present critical challenges on a warming planet, as does the influence of climate on disease. Both are governed by nonlinear feedbacks, which drive multi‐annual cycles in disease outbreaks and weather patterns. Although climate and weather can influence infectious disease transmission and have spawned rich literature, the interaction between the independent feedbacks of these two systems remains less explored. Here, we demonstrate the potential for long‐lasting impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on disease dynamics using two approaches: interannual perturbations of a generic SIRS model to represent ENSO forcing, and detailed analysis of realistic specific humidity data in an SIRS model with endemic coronavirus (HCoV‐HKU1) parameters. Our findings reveal the importance of considering nonlinear feedbacks in susceptible population dynamics for predicting and managing disease risks associated with ENSO‐related weather variations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3ba28e5c1f414c489410ddba49da73cf |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2471-1403 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | GeoHealth |
| spelling | doaj-art-3ba28e5c1f414c489410ddba49da73cf2025-08-20T02:25:45ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)GeoHealth2471-14032025-02-0192n/an/a10.1029/2024GH001193Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease SpreadMaya V. Chung0Gabriel A. Vecchi1Wenchang Yang2Bryan Grenfell3C. Jessica Metcalf4Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Princeton University Princeton NJ USAProgram in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Princeton University Princeton NJ USADepartment of Geosciences Princeton University Princeton NJ USAHigh Meadows Environmental Institute Princeton University Princeton NJ USAHigh Meadows Environmental Institute Princeton University Princeton NJ USAAbstract Climate and infectious diseases each present critical challenges on a warming planet, as does the influence of climate on disease. Both are governed by nonlinear feedbacks, which drive multi‐annual cycles in disease outbreaks and weather patterns. Although climate and weather can influence infectious disease transmission and have spawned rich literature, the interaction between the independent feedbacks of these two systems remains less explored. Here, we demonstrate the potential for long‐lasting impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on disease dynamics using two approaches: interannual perturbations of a generic SIRS model to represent ENSO forcing, and detailed analysis of realistic specific humidity data in an SIRS model with endemic coronavirus (HCoV‐HKU1) parameters. Our findings reveal the importance of considering nonlinear feedbacks in susceptible population dynamics for predicting and managing disease risks associated with ENSO‐related weather variations.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GH001193infectious diseaseENSOclimate variabilitydisease forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Maya V. Chung Gabriel A. Vecchi Wenchang Yang Bryan Grenfell C. Jessica Metcalf Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread GeoHealth infectious disease ENSO climate variability disease forecasting |
| title | Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread |
| title_full | Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread |
| title_fullStr | Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread |
| title_full_unstemmed | Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread |
| title_short | Intersecting Memories of Immunity and Climate: Potential Multiyear Impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Infectious Disease Spread |
| title_sort | intersecting memories of immunity and climate potential multiyear impacts of the el nino southern oscillation on infectious disease spread |
| topic | infectious disease ENSO climate variability disease forecasting |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GH001193 |
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