An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain

This study presents an innovative, dynamic model for predicting typhoon track deflections over complex terrain. Based on potential vorticity conservation, the model incorporates a topographic adjusting parameter (α) and a meridional adjusting velocity (MAV) to capture the vortex’s response to terrai...

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Main Author: Hung-Cheng Chen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-11-01
Series:Atmosphere
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1372
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author Hung-Cheng Chen
author_facet Hung-Cheng Chen
author_sort Hung-Cheng Chen
collection DOAJ
description This study presents an innovative, dynamic model for predicting typhoon track deflections over complex terrain. Based on potential vorticity conservation, the model incorporates a topographic adjusting parameter (α) and a meridional adjusting velocity (MAV) to capture the vortex’s response to terrain variations. Simulations using an idealized bell-shaped mountain and Taiwan’s realistic topography reveal that steeper terrain gradients consistently deflect typhoon tracks southward. This steering effect intensifies with increasing vortex strength due to a larger α, leading to enhanced MAV. Shallower approach angles also amplify deflections due to prolonged terrain interaction. Results highlight the significant role of Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range in shaping typhoon trajectories. This model offers a refined approach for predicting typhoon behavior near complex terrain, advancing forecasting capabilities, and enhancing disaster preparedness strategies.
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spelling doaj-art-3b3bca1bcc0b4c1da8681cc1ed0f86b82025-08-20T01:53:44ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-11-011511137210.3390/atmos15111372An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex TerrainHung-Cheng Chen0School of Education, Huanggang Normal University, Huanggang 438000, ChinaThis study presents an innovative, dynamic model for predicting typhoon track deflections over complex terrain. Based on potential vorticity conservation, the model incorporates a topographic adjusting parameter (α) and a meridional adjusting velocity (MAV) to capture the vortex’s response to terrain variations. Simulations using an idealized bell-shaped mountain and Taiwan’s realistic topography reveal that steeper terrain gradients consistently deflect typhoon tracks southward. This steering effect intensifies with increasing vortex strength due to a larger α, leading to enhanced MAV. Shallower approach angles also amplify deflections due to prolonged terrain interaction. Results highlight the significant role of Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range in shaping typhoon trajectories. This model offers a refined approach for predicting typhoon behavior near complex terrain, advancing forecasting capabilities, and enhancing disaster preparedness strategies.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1372topographic steeringtyphoon track predictiondynamic modelpotential vorticitycomplex terraindisaster preparedness
spellingShingle Hung-Cheng Chen
An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain
Atmosphere
topographic steering
typhoon track prediction
dynamic model
potential vorticity
complex terrain
disaster preparedness
title An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain
title_full An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain
title_fullStr An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain
title_full_unstemmed An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain
title_short An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain
title_sort innovative dynamic model for predicting typhoon track deflections over complex terrain
topic topographic steering
typhoon track prediction
dynamic model
potential vorticity
complex terrain
disaster preparedness
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1372
work_keys_str_mv AT hungchengchen aninnovativedynamicmodelforpredictingtyphoontrackdeflectionsovercomplexterrain
AT hungchengchen innovativedynamicmodelforpredictingtyphoontrackdeflectionsovercomplexterrain