An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain
This study presents an innovative, dynamic model for predicting typhoon track deflections over complex terrain. Based on potential vorticity conservation, the model incorporates a topographic adjusting parameter (α) and a meridional adjusting velocity (MAV) to capture the vortex’s response to terrai...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1372 |
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| _version_ | 1850267610442104832 |
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| author | Hung-Cheng Chen |
| author_facet | Hung-Cheng Chen |
| author_sort | Hung-Cheng Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study presents an innovative, dynamic model for predicting typhoon track deflections over complex terrain. Based on potential vorticity conservation, the model incorporates a topographic adjusting parameter (α) and a meridional adjusting velocity (MAV) to capture the vortex’s response to terrain variations. Simulations using an idealized bell-shaped mountain and Taiwan’s realistic topography reveal that steeper terrain gradients consistently deflect typhoon tracks southward. This steering effect intensifies with increasing vortex strength due to a larger α, leading to enhanced MAV. Shallower approach angles also amplify deflections due to prolonged terrain interaction. Results highlight the significant role of Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range in shaping typhoon trajectories. This model offers a refined approach for predicting typhoon behavior near complex terrain, advancing forecasting capabilities, and enhancing disaster preparedness strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3b3bca1bcc0b4c1da8681cc1ed0f86b8 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-3b3bca1bcc0b4c1da8681cc1ed0f86b82025-08-20T01:53:44ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-11-011511137210.3390/atmos15111372An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex TerrainHung-Cheng Chen0School of Education, Huanggang Normal University, Huanggang 438000, ChinaThis study presents an innovative, dynamic model for predicting typhoon track deflections over complex terrain. Based on potential vorticity conservation, the model incorporates a topographic adjusting parameter (α) and a meridional adjusting velocity (MAV) to capture the vortex’s response to terrain variations. Simulations using an idealized bell-shaped mountain and Taiwan’s realistic topography reveal that steeper terrain gradients consistently deflect typhoon tracks southward. This steering effect intensifies with increasing vortex strength due to a larger α, leading to enhanced MAV. Shallower approach angles also amplify deflections due to prolonged terrain interaction. Results highlight the significant role of Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range in shaping typhoon trajectories. This model offers a refined approach for predicting typhoon behavior near complex terrain, advancing forecasting capabilities, and enhancing disaster preparedness strategies.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1372topographic steeringtyphoon track predictiondynamic modelpotential vorticitycomplex terraindisaster preparedness |
| spellingShingle | Hung-Cheng Chen An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain Atmosphere topographic steering typhoon track prediction dynamic model potential vorticity complex terrain disaster preparedness |
| title | An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain |
| title_full | An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain |
| title_fullStr | An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain |
| title_short | An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain |
| title_sort | innovative dynamic model for predicting typhoon track deflections over complex terrain |
| topic | topographic steering typhoon track prediction dynamic model potential vorticity complex terrain disaster preparedness |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1372 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hungchengchen aninnovativedynamicmodelforpredictingtyphoontrackdeflectionsovercomplexterrain AT hungchengchen innovativedynamicmodelforpredictingtyphoontrackdeflectionsovercomplexterrain |