Prediction of the Reference Evapotranspiration Using a Chaotic Approach
Evapotranspiration is one of the most important hydrological variables in the context of water resources management. An attempt was made to understand and predict the dynamics of reference evapotranspiration from a nonlinear dynamical perspective in this study. The reference evapotranspiration data...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | The Scientific World Journal |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/347625 |
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| author | Wei-guang Wang Shan Zou Zhao-hui Luo Wei Zhang Dan Chen Jun Kong |
| author_facet | Wei-guang Wang Shan Zou Zhao-hui Luo Wei Zhang Dan Chen Jun Kong |
| author_sort | Wei-guang Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Evapotranspiration is one of the most important hydrological variables in the context of water resources management. An attempt was made to understand and predict the dynamics of reference evapotranspiration from a nonlinear dynamical perspective in this study. The reference evapotranspiration data was calculated using the FAO Penman-Monteith equation with the observed daily meteorological data for the period 1966–2005 at four meteorological stations (i.e., Baotou, Zhangbei, Kaifeng, and Shaoguan) representing a wide range of climatic conditions of China. The correlation dimension method was employed to investigate the chaotic behavior of the reference evapotranspiration series. The existence of chaos in the reference evapotranspiration series at the four different locations was proved by the finite and low correlation dimension. A local approximation approach was employed to forecast the daily reference evapotranspiration series. Low root mean square error (RSME) and mean absolute error (MAE) (for all locations lower than 0.31 and 0.24, resp.), high correlation coefficient (CC), and modified coefficient of efficiency (for all locations larger than 0.97 and 0.8, resp.) indicate that the predicted reference evapotranspiration agrees well with the observed one. The encouraging results indicate the suitableness of chaotic approach for understanding and predicting the dynamics of the reference evapotranspiration. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3a802a84dfd6403784ec1d0cd9c085de |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2356-6140 1537-744X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Scientific World Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-3a802a84dfd6403784ec1d0cd9c085de2025-08-20T03:55:40ZengWileyThe Scientific World Journal2356-61401537-744X2014-01-01201410.1155/2014/347625347625Prediction of the Reference Evapotranspiration Using a Chaotic ApproachWei-guang Wang0Shan Zou1Zhao-hui Luo2Wei Zhang3Dan Chen4Jun Kong5State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaCollege of Resources & Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaKey Laboratory of Efficient Irrigation-Drainage and Agricultural Soil-Water Environment in Southern China of Ministry of Education, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaCollege of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaEvapotranspiration is one of the most important hydrological variables in the context of water resources management. An attempt was made to understand and predict the dynamics of reference evapotranspiration from a nonlinear dynamical perspective in this study. The reference evapotranspiration data was calculated using the FAO Penman-Monteith equation with the observed daily meteorological data for the period 1966–2005 at four meteorological stations (i.e., Baotou, Zhangbei, Kaifeng, and Shaoguan) representing a wide range of climatic conditions of China. The correlation dimension method was employed to investigate the chaotic behavior of the reference evapotranspiration series. The existence of chaos in the reference evapotranspiration series at the four different locations was proved by the finite and low correlation dimension. A local approximation approach was employed to forecast the daily reference evapotranspiration series. Low root mean square error (RSME) and mean absolute error (MAE) (for all locations lower than 0.31 and 0.24, resp.), high correlation coefficient (CC), and modified coefficient of efficiency (for all locations larger than 0.97 and 0.8, resp.) indicate that the predicted reference evapotranspiration agrees well with the observed one. The encouraging results indicate the suitableness of chaotic approach for understanding and predicting the dynamics of the reference evapotranspiration.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/347625 |
| spellingShingle | Wei-guang Wang Shan Zou Zhao-hui Luo Wei Zhang Dan Chen Jun Kong Prediction of the Reference Evapotranspiration Using a Chaotic Approach The Scientific World Journal |
| title | Prediction of the Reference Evapotranspiration Using a Chaotic Approach |
| title_full | Prediction of the Reference Evapotranspiration Using a Chaotic Approach |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of the Reference Evapotranspiration Using a Chaotic Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of the Reference Evapotranspiration Using a Chaotic Approach |
| title_short | Prediction of the Reference Evapotranspiration Using a Chaotic Approach |
| title_sort | prediction of the reference evapotranspiration using a chaotic approach |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/347625 |
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