A Bayesian framework for inferring regional and global change from stratigraphic proxy records (StratMC v1.0)
<p>The chemistry of ancient sedimentary rocks encodes information about past climate, element cycling, and biological innovations. Records of large-scale Earth system change are constructed by piecing together geochemical proxy data from many different stratigraphic sections, each of which may...
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Copernicus Publications
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/4759/2025/gmd-18-4759-2025.pdf |
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| author | S. Edmonsond B. Dyer |
| author_facet | S. Edmonsond B. Dyer |
| author_sort | S. Edmonsond |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The chemistry of ancient sedimentary rocks encodes information about past climate, element cycling, and biological innovations. Records of large-scale Earth system change are constructed by piecing together geochemical proxy data from many different stratigraphic sections, each of which may be incomplete, time-uncertain, biased by local processes, and diagenetically altered. Accurately reconstructing past Earth system change thus requires correctly correlating sections from different locations, distinguishing between global and local changes in proxy values, and converting stratigraphic height to absolute time. Incomplete consideration of the uncertainties associated with each of these challenging tasks can lead to biased and inaccurate estimates of the magnitude, duration, and rate of past Earth system change. Here, we address this shortcoming by developing a Bayesian statistical framework for inferring the common proxy signal recorded by multiple stratigraphic sections. Using the principle of stratigraphic superposition and both absolute and relative age constraints, the model simultaneously correlates all stratigraphic sections, builds an age model for each section, and untangles global and local signals for one or more proxies. Synthetic experiments confirm that the model can correctly recover proxy signals from incomplete, noisy, and biased stratigraphic observations. Future applications of the model to the geologic record will enable geoscientists to more accurately pose and test hypotheses for the drivers of past proxy perturbations, generating new insights into Earth's history. The model is available as an open-source Python package (StratMC), which provides a flexible and user-friendly framework for studying different times and proxies recorded in sediments.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3a4c342913324e30bd9cf96ea1b2b053 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscientific Model Development |
| spelling | doaj-art-3a4c342913324e30bd9cf96ea1b2b0532025-08-20T02:54:53ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032025-08-01184759478810.5194/gmd-18-4759-2025A Bayesian framework for inferring regional and global change from stratigraphic proxy records (StratMC v1.0)S. Edmonsond0B. Dyer1School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, CanadaSchool of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada<p>The chemistry of ancient sedimentary rocks encodes information about past climate, element cycling, and biological innovations. Records of large-scale Earth system change are constructed by piecing together geochemical proxy data from many different stratigraphic sections, each of which may be incomplete, time-uncertain, biased by local processes, and diagenetically altered. Accurately reconstructing past Earth system change thus requires correctly correlating sections from different locations, distinguishing between global and local changes in proxy values, and converting stratigraphic height to absolute time. Incomplete consideration of the uncertainties associated with each of these challenging tasks can lead to biased and inaccurate estimates of the magnitude, duration, and rate of past Earth system change. Here, we address this shortcoming by developing a Bayesian statistical framework for inferring the common proxy signal recorded by multiple stratigraphic sections. Using the principle of stratigraphic superposition and both absolute and relative age constraints, the model simultaneously correlates all stratigraphic sections, builds an age model for each section, and untangles global and local signals for one or more proxies. Synthetic experiments confirm that the model can correctly recover proxy signals from incomplete, noisy, and biased stratigraphic observations. Future applications of the model to the geologic record will enable geoscientists to more accurately pose and test hypotheses for the drivers of past proxy perturbations, generating new insights into Earth's history. The model is available as an open-source Python package (StratMC), which provides a flexible and user-friendly framework for studying different times and proxies recorded in sediments.</p>https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/4759/2025/gmd-18-4759-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Edmonsond B. Dyer A Bayesian framework for inferring regional and global change from stratigraphic proxy records (StratMC v1.0) Geoscientific Model Development |
| title | A Bayesian framework for inferring regional and global change from stratigraphic proxy records (StratMC v1.0) |
| title_full | A Bayesian framework for inferring regional and global change from stratigraphic proxy records (StratMC v1.0) |
| title_fullStr | A Bayesian framework for inferring regional and global change from stratigraphic proxy records (StratMC v1.0) |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Bayesian framework for inferring regional and global change from stratigraphic proxy records (StratMC v1.0) |
| title_short | A Bayesian framework for inferring regional and global change from stratigraphic proxy records (StratMC v1.0) |
| title_sort | bayesian framework for inferring regional and global change from stratigraphic proxy records stratmc v1 0 |
| url | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/4759/2025/gmd-18-4759-2025.pdf |
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