Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the <i>Camellia</i> Subgenus <i>Camellia</i> in China and Providing Insights into <i>Camellia</i> Resources Management Under Future Climate Change
Rapid climate change has significantly impacted species distribution patterns, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of dominant tree dynamics for effective forest resource management and utilization. The <i>Camellia</i> subgenus <i>Camellia</i>, a widely distributed ta...
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2025-04-01
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| author | Yue Xu Bing-Qian Guan Ran Chen Rong Yi Xiao-Long Jiang Kai-Qing Xie |
| author_facet | Yue Xu Bing-Qian Guan Ran Chen Rong Yi Xiao-Long Jiang Kai-Qing Xie |
| author_sort | Yue Xu |
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| description | Rapid climate change has significantly impacted species distribution patterns, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of dominant tree dynamics for effective forest resource management and utilization. The <i>Camellia</i> subgenus <i>Camellia</i>, a widely distributed taxon in subtropical China, represents an ecologically and economically important group of woody plants valued for both oil production and ornamental purposes. In this study, we employed the BIOMOD2 ensemble modeling framework to investigate the spatial distribution patterns and range dynamics of the subgenus <i>Camellia</i> under projected climate change scenarios. Our analysis incorporated 1455 georeferenced occurrence records from 15 species, following the filtering of duplicate points, along with seven bioclimatic variables selected after highly correlated factors were eliminated. The ensemble model, which integrates six single species distribution models, demonstrated robust predictive performance, with mean true skil l statistic (TSS) and area under curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.8. Our results identified precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) and temperature seasonality (Bio4) as the primary determinants influencing species distribution patterns. The center of species richness for the subgenus <i>Camellia</i> was located in the Nanling Mountains and eastern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The projections indicate an overall expansion of suitable habitats for the subgenus under future climate conditions, with notable scenario-dependent variations: distribution hotspots are predicted to increase by 8.86% under the SSP126 scenario but experience a 2.53% reduction under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, a westward shift in the distribution centroid is anticipated. To ensure long-term conservation of <i>Camellia</i> genetic resources, we recommend establishing a germplasm conservation center in the Nanling Mountains region, which represents a critical biodiversity hotspot for this taxon. |
| format | Article |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
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| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj-art-3a1028597afc4e4db936a20615b4fefc2025-08-20T03:03:27ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472025-04-01147113710.3390/plants14071137Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the <i>Camellia</i> Subgenus <i>Camellia</i> in China and Providing Insights into <i>Camellia</i> Resources Management Under Future Climate ChangeYue Xu0Bing-Qian Guan1Ran Chen2Rong Yi3Xiao-Long Jiang4Kai-Qing Xie5College of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, ChinaCollege of Agriculture and Biological Sciences, Dali University, Dali 671003, ChinaRapid climate change has significantly impacted species distribution patterns, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of dominant tree dynamics for effective forest resource management and utilization. The <i>Camellia</i> subgenus <i>Camellia</i>, a widely distributed taxon in subtropical China, represents an ecologically and economically important group of woody plants valued for both oil production and ornamental purposes. In this study, we employed the BIOMOD2 ensemble modeling framework to investigate the spatial distribution patterns and range dynamics of the subgenus <i>Camellia</i> under projected climate change scenarios. Our analysis incorporated 1455 georeferenced occurrence records from 15 species, following the filtering of duplicate points, along with seven bioclimatic variables selected after highly correlated factors were eliminated. The ensemble model, which integrates six single species distribution models, demonstrated robust predictive performance, with mean true skil l statistic (TSS) and area under curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.8. Our results identified precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) and temperature seasonality (Bio4) as the primary determinants influencing species distribution patterns. The center of species richness for the subgenus <i>Camellia</i> was located in the Nanling Mountains and eastern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The projections indicate an overall expansion of suitable habitats for the subgenus under future climate conditions, with notable scenario-dependent variations: distribution hotspots are predicted to increase by 8.86% under the SSP126 scenario but experience a 2.53% reduction under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, a westward shift in the distribution centroid is anticipated. To ensure long-term conservation of <i>Camellia</i> genetic resources, we recommend establishing a germplasm conservation center in the Nanling Mountains region, which represents a critical biodiversity hotspot for this taxon.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/7/1137<i>Camellia</i>ensemble modelclimate changeornamental species |
| spellingShingle | Yue Xu Bing-Qian Guan Ran Chen Rong Yi Xiao-Long Jiang Kai-Qing Xie Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the <i>Camellia</i> Subgenus <i>Camellia</i> in China and Providing Insights into <i>Camellia</i> Resources Management Under Future Climate Change Plants <i>Camellia</i> ensemble model climate change ornamental species |
| title | Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the <i>Camellia</i> Subgenus <i>Camellia</i> in China and Providing Insights into <i>Camellia</i> Resources Management Under Future Climate Change |
| title_full | Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the <i>Camellia</i> Subgenus <i>Camellia</i> in China and Providing Insights into <i>Camellia</i> Resources Management Under Future Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the <i>Camellia</i> Subgenus <i>Camellia</i> in China and Providing Insights into <i>Camellia</i> Resources Management Under Future Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the <i>Camellia</i> Subgenus <i>Camellia</i> in China and Providing Insights into <i>Camellia</i> Resources Management Under Future Climate Change |
| title_short | Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the <i>Camellia</i> Subgenus <i>Camellia</i> in China and Providing Insights into <i>Camellia</i> Resources Management Under Future Climate Change |
| title_sort | investigating the distribution dynamics of the i camellia i subgenus i camellia i in china and providing insights into i camellia i resources management under future climate change |
| topic | <i>Camellia</i> ensemble model climate change ornamental species |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/7/1137 |
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