Predictive Processing in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Atypical Iterative Prior Updating Account

Background: The nature of predictive-processing differences between individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and typically developing (TD) individuals remains contested. Some studies have reported impaired predictive processing in ASD, while others have suggested intact but atypical learning...

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Main Authors: Zhuanghua Shi, Fredrik Allenmark, Laura A. Theisinger, Rasmus L. Pistorius, Stefan Glasauer, Hermann J. Müller, Christine M. Falter-Wagner
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-05-01
Series:Biological Psychiatry Global Open Science
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667174325000229
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author Zhuanghua Shi
Fredrik Allenmark
Laura A. Theisinger
Rasmus L. Pistorius
Stefan Glasauer
Hermann J. Müller
Christine M. Falter-Wagner
author_facet Zhuanghua Shi
Fredrik Allenmark
Laura A. Theisinger
Rasmus L. Pistorius
Stefan Glasauer
Hermann J. Müller
Christine M. Falter-Wagner
author_sort Zhuanghua Shi
collection DOAJ
description Background: The nature of predictive-processing differences between individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and typically developing (TD) individuals remains contested. Some studies have reported impaired predictive processing in ASD, while others have suggested intact but atypical learning dynamics. Methods: We investigated duration reproduction tasks under high- and low-volatility settings to examine the updating dynamics of prior beliefs and sensory estimate updating in individuals with ASD (n = 32) and TD counterparts (n = 32). Using a two-state Bayesian model, we analyzed how the participants updated their prior beliefs and perceptual estimates and how these updates affected their behavior over time. Results: Individuals with ASD integrated prior knowledge similarly to TD control participants for perceptual estimates. However, they relied more heavily on sensory input for iteratively updating their prior beliefs, perceiving events as less interconnected. This heightened reliance on sensory inputs led to the initial underweighting of priors in perceptual estimates, resulting in a weaker central tendency early in sessions. Over time, ASD participants adapted, reaching integration weights comparable to those of TD control participants by the end of the session. These findings suggest that predictive processing in ASD is characterized by distinct updating dynamics, not an inability to form or use prior effectively. Conclusions: Our study highlights a unique interplay between sensory inputs and prior beliefs in ASD, where greater reliance on sensory inputs during prior updating influences adaptation speed and intertrial dynamics. This process clarifies inconsistencies in the literature and underscores the role of interactive updating in predictive processing differences between individuals with ASD and TD individuals.
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spelling doaj-art-39acde0016a94d169a8ea62e3d3dc28d2025-08-20T02:49:22ZengElsevierBiological Psychiatry Global Open Science2667-17432025-05-015310046810.1016/j.bpsgos.2025.100468Predictive Processing in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Atypical Iterative Prior Updating AccountZhuanghua Shi0Fredrik Allenmark1Laura A. Theisinger2Rasmus L. Pistorius3Stefan Glasauer4Hermann J. Müller5Christine M. Falter-Wagner6Department of Psychology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Address correspondence to Zhuanghua Shi, Ph.D.Department of Psychology, LMU Munich, Munich, GermanyDepartment of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich, GermanyDepartment of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich, GermanyComputational Neuroscience, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Cottbus, Germany; Faculty of Health Sciences Brandenburg, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Cottbus, GermanyDepartment of Psychology, LMU Munich, Munich, GermanyDepartment of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Christine M. Falter-Wagner, Ph.D.Background: The nature of predictive-processing differences between individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and typically developing (TD) individuals remains contested. Some studies have reported impaired predictive processing in ASD, while others have suggested intact but atypical learning dynamics. Methods: We investigated duration reproduction tasks under high- and low-volatility settings to examine the updating dynamics of prior beliefs and sensory estimate updating in individuals with ASD (n = 32) and TD counterparts (n = 32). Using a two-state Bayesian model, we analyzed how the participants updated their prior beliefs and perceptual estimates and how these updates affected their behavior over time. Results: Individuals with ASD integrated prior knowledge similarly to TD control participants for perceptual estimates. However, they relied more heavily on sensory input for iteratively updating their prior beliefs, perceiving events as less interconnected. This heightened reliance on sensory inputs led to the initial underweighting of priors in perceptual estimates, resulting in a weaker central tendency early in sessions. Over time, ASD participants adapted, reaching integration weights comparable to those of TD control participants by the end of the session. These findings suggest that predictive processing in ASD is characterized by distinct updating dynamics, not an inability to form or use prior effectively. Conclusions: Our study highlights a unique interplay between sensory inputs and prior beliefs in ASD, where greater reliance on sensory inputs during prior updating influences adaptation speed and intertrial dynamics. This process clarifies inconsistencies in the literature and underscores the role of interactive updating in predictive processing differences between individuals with ASD and TD individuals.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667174325000229AutismBayesian modelingIterative updatingPerceptionPrior belief
spellingShingle Zhuanghua Shi
Fredrik Allenmark
Laura A. Theisinger
Rasmus L. Pistorius
Stefan Glasauer
Hermann J. Müller
Christine M. Falter-Wagner
Predictive Processing in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Atypical Iterative Prior Updating Account
Biological Psychiatry Global Open Science
Autism
Bayesian modeling
Iterative updating
Perception
Prior belief
title Predictive Processing in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Atypical Iterative Prior Updating Account
title_full Predictive Processing in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Atypical Iterative Prior Updating Account
title_fullStr Predictive Processing in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Atypical Iterative Prior Updating Account
title_full_unstemmed Predictive Processing in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Atypical Iterative Prior Updating Account
title_short Predictive Processing in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Atypical Iterative Prior Updating Account
title_sort predictive processing in autism spectrum disorder the atypical iterative prior updating account
topic Autism
Bayesian modeling
Iterative updating
Perception
Prior belief
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667174325000229
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