Characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the Haihe River Basin of China: Time, probability, and threshold
Study region: The Haihe River Basin (HHRB), China. Study focus: Understanding the propagation characteristics of droughts from meteorological to hydrological stages is crucial for effective early warning systems. However, these characteristics (time, probability, and threshold) remain unexplored und...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-06-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825001843 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850154212583800832 |
|---|---|
| author | Anzhou Zhao Wei Zhang Lidong Zou Sen Cao Yunfeng Yue Qirilatu Sa |
| author_facet | Anzhou Zhao Wei Zhang Lidong Zou Sen Cao Yunfeng Yue Qirilatu Sa |
| author_sort | Anzhou Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: The Haihe River Basin (HHRB), China. Study focus: Understanding the propagation characteristics of droughts from meteorological to hydrological stages is crucial for effective early warning systems. However, these characteristics (time, probability, and threshold) remain unexplored under natural conditions. This study aims to fill this gap by studying the propagation characteristics of drought from the meteorological phase to the hydrological phase under natural conditions. Utilizes the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) to analyze meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Haihe River Basin (HHRB), China, using data from 1981 to 2018. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, copula probability models, and Bayesian causal frameworks are employed to investigate drought propagation characteristics. New hydrological insights for the region: The study shows significant regional differences in the propagation time from meteorological to hydrological droughts, with shorter times in the northwest and longer times in the southeast. Additionally, the duration of droughts in spring and winter is generally longer. The drought propagation time has shown a significant increasing trend from 1981 to 2018, especially in the central and western regions. The probability of meteorological drought triggering hydrological drought increases with the severity level, and the thresholds for meteorological drought differ across various levels of hydrological drought. These findings highlight the importance of considering regional differences, seasonal variations, and the impact of climate change on drought trends in drought warning systems and water resource management. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3924d1bfdb3741df9b0a1128be77324f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-3924d1bfdb3741df9b0a1128be77324f2025-08-20T02:25:26ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-06-015910235910.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102359Characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the Haihe River Basin of China: Time, probability, and thresholdAnzhou Zhao0Wei Zhang1Lidong Zou2Sen Cao3Yunfeng Yue4Qirilatu Sa5School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China; Corresponding author.School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, ChinaSchool of Artificial Intelligence, Shenzhen Polytechnic University, Shenzhen 518055, ChinaCollege of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, ChinaInner Mongolia Autonomous Region Geographic Information Center for Surveying and Mapping, Hohhot 010051, ChinaInner Mongolia Autonomous Region Geographic Information Center for Surveying and Mapping, Hohhot 010051, ChinaStudy region: The Haihe River Basin (HHRB), China. Study focus: Understanding the propagation characteristics of droughts from meteorological to hydrological stages is crucial for effective early warning systems. However, these characteristics (time, probability, and threshold) remain unexplored under natural conditions. This study aims to fill this gap by studying the propagation characteristics of drought from the meteorological phase to the hydrological phase under natural conditions. Utilizes the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) to analyze meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Haihe River Basin (HHRB), China, using data from 1981 to 2018. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, copula probability models, and Bayesian causal frameworks are employed to investigate drought propagation characteristics. New hydrological insights for the region: The study shows significant regional differences in the propagation time from meteorological to hydrological droughts, with shorter times in the northwest and longer times in the southeast. Additionally, the duration of droughts in spring and winter is generally longer. The drought propagation time has shown a significant increasing trend from 1981 to 2018, especially in the central and western regions. The probability of meteorological drought triggering hydrological drought increases with the severity level, and the thresholds for meteorological drought differ across various levels of hydrological drought. These findings highlight the importance of considering regional differences, seasonal variations, and the impact of climate change on drought trends in drought warning systems and water resource management.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825001843Drought propagation characteristicsMeteorological droughtHydrological droughtNatural runoffHaihe River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Anzhou Zhao Wei Zhang Lidong Zou Sen Cao Yunfeng Yue Qirilatu Sa Characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the Haihe River Basin of China: Time, probability, and threshold Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Drought propagation characteristics Meteorological drought Hydrological drought Natural runoff Haihe River Basin |
| title | Characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the Haihe River Basin of China: Time, probability, and threshold |
| title_full | Characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the Haihe River Basin of China: Time, probability, and threshold |
| title_fullStr | Characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the Haihe River Basin of China: Time, probability, and threshold |
| title_full_unstemmed | Characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the Haihe River Basin of China: Time, probability, and threshold |
| title_short | Characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the Haihe River Basin of China: Time, probability, and threshold |
| title_sort | characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the haihe river basin of china time probability and threshold |
| topic | Drought propagation characteristics Meteorological drought Hydrological drought Natural runoff Haihe River Basin |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825001843 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT anzhouzhao characteristicsofpropagationfrommeteorologicaltohydrologicaldroughtundernaturalconditionsinthehaiheriverbasinofchinatimeprobabilityandthreshold AT weizhang characteristicsofpropagationfrommeteorologicaltohydrologicaldroughtundernaturalconditionsinthehaiheriverbasinofchinatimeprobabilityandthreshold AT lidongzou characteristicsofpropagationfrommeteorologicaltohydrologicaldroughtundernaturalconditionsinthehaiheriverbasinofchinatimeprobabilityandthreshold AT sencao characteristicsofpropagationfrommeteorologicaltohydrologicaldroughtundernaturalconditionsinthehaiheriverbasinofchinatimeprobabilityandthreshold AT yunfengyue characteristicsofpropagationfrommeteorologicaltohydrologicaldroughtundernaturalconditionsinthehaiheriverbasinofchinatimeprobabilityandthreshold AT qirilatusa characteristicsofpropagationfrommeteorologicaltohydrologicaldroughtundernaturalconditionsinthehaiheriverbasinofchinatimeprobabilityandthreshold |