Interpretable machine learning analysis of environmental characteristics on bacillary dysentery in Sichuan Province
BackgroundBacterial dysentery (BD) is a leading cause of diarrhea-related mortality globally, with its incidence heavily influenced by environmental factors. However, a climate zone-specific predictive model for BD was currently lacking in Sichuan Province.ObjectiveThis study aims to employ interpre...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1598247/full |
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| author | Yao Zhang Qiao-Lin Wang Wei Peng Meng-Yuan Zhang Yao Qin Lun Zhang Rong-Jie Wei Dian-Ju Kang |
| author_facet | Yao Zhang Qiao-Lin Wang Wei Peng Meng-Yuan Zhang Yao Qin Lun Zhang Rong-Jie Wei Dian-Ju Kang |
| author_sort | Yao Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundBacterial dysentery (BD) is a leading cause of diarrhea-related mortality globally, with its incidence heavily influenced by environmental factors. However, a climate zone-specific predictive model for BD was currently lacking in Sichuan Province.ObjectiveThis study aims to employ interpretable machine learning to explore the influence of environmental factors on BD incidence across different climate zones and to elucidate their interaction mechanisms.MethodsMonthly data on meteorological and ecological factors, along with BD case reports, were collected from 183 counties in Sichuan Province (2005–2023). The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was employed to assess the influence of key environmental features, including precipitation, temperature, PM10, potential evaporation, vegetation cover, and NDVI, on BD incidence. To enhance interpretability, the model’s outputs were visualized and explained using SHapley Additive Explanations (SHAP).ResultsA machine learning model was developed to assess the impact of environmental factors on BD incidence across different climate zones. The findings revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in key drivers of BD. In the Central Subtropical Humid Climate Zone, BD incidence was predominantly influenced by average temperature, PM10, and minimum temperature. In the Subtropical Semi-Humid Climate Zone, potential evaporation, PM10, and precipitation emerged as the primary determinants. In the Plateau Cold Climate Zone, PM10, minimum temperature, and precipitation were the most significant factors. Notably, PM10 consistently showed a positive correlation with BD across all climate zones. Furthermore, average temperature showed a positive association with BD in the Central Subtropical Humid Climate Zone, while potential evaporation and minimum temperature demonstrated similar positive relationships in the Subtropical Semi-Humid and Plateau Cold Climate Zones, respectively. Additionally, precipitation displayed a U-shaped relationship with BD risk in both the Subtropical Semi-Humid and Plateau Cold Climate Zones.ConclusionThis study developed a climate zone-specific predictive model for BD, systematically evaluating the interactions between environmental factors and BD dynamics. The findings provide a scientific basis for refining targeted public health intervention strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-38f9eb82ea6e411ba324cd5d70177e28 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-38f9eb82ea6e411ba324cd5d70177e282025-08-20T03:50:53ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652025-07-011310.3389/fpubh.2025.15982471598247Interpretable machine learning analysis of environmental characteristics on bacillary dysentery in Sichuan ProvinceYao Zhang0Qiao-Lin Wang1Wei Peng2Meng-Yuan Zhang3Yao Qin4Lun Zhang5Rong-Jie Wei6Dian-Ju Kang7Department of Emergency Management, Sichuan Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Chengdu, ChinaWest China School of Public Health/West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Health Education Institute, Sichuan Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Emergency Management, Sichuan Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Emergency Management, Sichuan Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Emergency Management, Sichuan Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Emergency Management, Sichuan Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Chengdu, ChinaDepartment of Emergency Management, Sichuan Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Chengdu, ChinaBackgroundBacterial dysentery (BD) is a leading cause of diarrhea-related mortality globally, with its incidence heavily influenced by environmental factors. However, a climate zone-specific predictive model for BD was currently lacking in Sichuan Province.ObjectiveThis study aims to employ interpretable machine learning to explore the influence of environmental factors on BD incidence across different climate zones and to elucidate their interaction mechanisms.MethodsMonthly data on meteorological and ecological factors, along with BD case reports, were collected from 183 counties in Sichuan Province (2005–2023). The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was employed to assess the influence of key environmental features, including precipitation, temperature, PM10, potential evaporation, vegetation cover, and NDVI, on BD incidence. To enhance interpretability, the model’s outputs were visualized and explained using SHapley Additive Explanations (SHAP).ResultsA machine learning model was developed to assess the impact of environmental factors on BD incidence across different climate zones. The findings revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in key drivers of BD. In the Central Subtropical Humid Climate Zone, BD incidence was predominantly influenced by average temperature, PM10, and minimum temperature. In the Subtropical Semi-Humid Climate Zone, potential evaporation, PM10, and precipitation emerged as the primary determinants. In the Plateau Cold Climate Zone, PM10, minimum temperature, and precipitation were the most significant factors. Notably, PM10 consistently showed a positive correlation with BD across all climate zones. Furthermore, average temperature showed a positive association with BD in the Central Subtropical Humid Climate Zone, while potential evaporation and minimum temperature demonstrated similar positive relationships in the Subtropical Semi-Humid and Plateau Cold Climate Zones, respectively. Additionally, precipitation displayed a U-shaped relationship with BD risk in both the Subtropical Semi-Humid and Plateau Cold Climate Zones.ConclusionThis study developed a climate zone-specific predictive model for BD, systematically evaluating the interactions between environmental factors and BD dynamics. The findings provide a scientific basis for refining targeted public health intervention strategies.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1598247/fullbacterial dysenteryclimate zonesenvironmental characteristicsXGBoostSHAP |
| spellingShingle | Yao Zhang Qiao-Lin Wang Wei Peng Meng-Yuan Zhang Yao Qin Lun Zhang Rong-Jie Wei Dian-Ju Kang Interpretable machine learning analysis of environmental characteristics on bacillary dysentery in Sichuan Province Frontiers in Public Health bacterial dysentery climate zones environmental characteristics XGBoost SHAP |
| title | Interpretable machine learning analysis of environmental characteristics on bacillary dysentery in Sichuan Province |
| title_full | Interpretable machine learning analysis of environmental characteristics on bacillary dysentery in Sichuan Province |
| title_fullStr | Interpretable machine learning analysis of environmental characteristics on bacillary dysentery in Sichuan Province |
| title_full_unstemmed | Interpretable machine learning analysis of environmental characteristics on bacillary dysentery in Sichuan Province |
| title_short | Interpretable machine learning analysis of environmental characteristics on bacillary dysentery in Sichuan Province |
| title_sort | interpretable machine learning analysis of environmental characteristics on bacillary dysentery in sichuan province |
| topic | bacterial dysentery climate zones environmental characteristics XGBoost SHAP |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1598247/full |
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