Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
<p>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of climate variability influencing temperature and precipitation in distant parts of the world. Traditionally, the ENSO influence is assessed considering its amplitude. Focusing on its quasi-oscillatory dynamics comprising multiple...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2024-11-01
|
| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1509/2024/esd-15-1509-2024.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850265859258318848 |
|---|---|
| author | Y. Latif K. Fan K. Fan G. Wang M. Paluš |
| author_facet | Y. Latif K. Fan K. Fan G. Wang M. Paluš |
| author_sort | Y. Latif |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of climate variability influencing temperature and precipitation in distant parts of the world. Traditionally, the ENSO influence is assessed considering its amplitude. Focusing on its quasi-oscillatory dynamics comprising multiple timescales, we analyze the causal influence of phases of ENSO oscillatory components on scales of precipitation variability in eastern China, using information-theoretic generalization of Granger causality. We uncover the causal influence of the ENSO quasi-biennial component on the precipitation variability on and around the annual scale, while the amplitude of the precipitation quasi-biennial component is influenced by the low-frequency ENSO components with periods of around 6 years. This cross-scale causal information flow is important mainly in the Yellow River basin (YWRB), while in the Yangtze River basin (YZRB) the causal effect of the ENSO amplitude is dominant. The presented results suggest that, in different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics should be employed for prediction of precipitation.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-38dc87d9788447e1a1ffdddd781f6ace |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj-art-38dc87d9788447e1a1ffdddd781f6ace2025-08-20T01:54:19ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872024-11-01151509152610.5194/esd-15-1509-2024Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern ChinaY. Latif0K. Fan1K. Fan2G. Wang3M. Paluš4Department of Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 182 00 Prague 8, Czech RepublicKey Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation (LAGEO), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaMeteorological Service Center, Dalian Meteorological Bureau, Dalian 116001, ChinaKey Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation (LAGEO), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaDepartment of Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 182 00 Prague 8, Czech Republic<p>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of climate variability influencing temperature and precipitation in distant parts of the world. Traditionally, the ENSO influence is assessed considering its amplitude. Focusing on its quasi-oscillatory dynamics comprising multiple timescales, we analyze the causal influence of phases of ENSO oscillatory components on scales of precipitation variability in eastern China, using information-theoretic generalization of Granger causality. We uncover the causal influence of the ENSO quasi-biennial component on the precipitation variability on and around the annual scale, while the amplitude of the precipitation quasi-biennial component is influenced by the low-frequency ENSO components with periods of around 6 years. This cross-scale causal information flow is important mainly in the Yellow River basin (YWRB), while in the Yangtze River basin (YZRB) the causal effect of the ENSO amplitude is dominant. The presented results suggest that, in different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics should be employed for prediction of precipitation.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1509/2024/esd-15-1509-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Y. Latif K. Fan K. Fan G. Wang M. Paluš Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China |
| title_full | Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China |
| title_fullStr | Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China |
| title_short | Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China |
| title_sort | cross scale causal information flow from the el nino southern oscillation to precipitation in eastern china |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1509/2024/esd-15-1509-2024.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ylatif crossscalecausalinformationflowfromtheelninosouthernoscillationtoprecipitationineasternchina AT kfan crossscalecausalinformationflowfromtheelninosouthernoscillationtoprecipitationineasternchina AT kfan crossscalecausalinformationflowfromtheelninosouthernoscillationtoprecipitationineasternchina AT gwang crossscalecausalinformationflowfromtheelninosouthernoscillationtoprecipitationineasternchina AT mpalus crossscalecausalinformationflowfromtheelninosouthernoscillationtoprecipitationineasternchina |