Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China

<p>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of climate variability influencing temperature and precipitation in distant parts of the world. Traditionally, the ENSO influence is assessed considering its amplitude. Focusing on its quasi-oscillatory dynamics comprising multiple...

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Main Authors: Y. Latif, K. Fan, G. Wang, M. Paluš
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2024-11-01
Series:Earth System Dynamics
Online Access:https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1509/2024/esd-15-1509-2024.pdf
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author Y. Latif
K. Fan
K. Fan
G. Wang
M. Paluš
author_facet Y. Latif
K. Fan
K. Fan
G. Wang
M. Paluš
author_sort Y. Latif
collection DOAJ
description <p>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of climate variability influencing temperature and precipitation in distant parts of the world. Traditionally, the ENSO influence is assessed considering its amplitude. Focusing on its quasi-oscillatory dynamics comprising multiple timescales, we analyze the causal influence of phases of ENSO oscillatory components on scales of precipitation variability in eastern China, using information-theoretic generalization of Granger causality. We uncover the causal influence of the ENSO quasi-biennial component on the precipitation variability on and around the annual scale, while the amplitude of the precipitation quasi-biennial component is influenced by the low-frequency ENSO components with periods of around 6 years. This cross-scale causal information flow is important mainly in the Yellow River basin (YWRB), while in the Yangtze River basin (YZRB) the causal effect of the ENSO amplitude is dominant. The presented results suggest that, in different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics should be employed for prediction of precipitation.</p>
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2190-4987
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spelling doaj-art-38dc87d9788447e1a1ffdddd781f6ace2025-08-20T01:54:19ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872024-11-01151509152610.5194/esd-15-1509-2024Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern ChinaY. Latif0K. Fan1K. Fan2G. Wang3M. Paluš4Department of Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 182 00 Prague 8, Czech RepublicKey Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation (LAGEO), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaMeteorological Service Center, Dalian Meteorological Bureau, Dalian 116001, ChinaKey Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation (LAGEO), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, ChinaDepartment of Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 182 00 Prague 8, Czech Republic<p>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of climate variability influencing temperature and precipitation in distant parts of the world. Traditionally, the ENSO influence is assessed considering its amplitude. Focusing on its quasi-oscillatory dynamics comprising multiple timescales, we analyze the causal influence of phases of ENSO oscillatory components on scales of precipitation variability in eastern China, using information-theoretic generalization of Granger causality. We uncover the causal influence of the ENSO quasi-biennial component on the precipitation variability on and around the annual scale, while the amplitude of the precipitation quasi-biennial component is influenced by the low-frequency ENSO components with periods of around 6 years. This cross-scale causal information flow is important mainly in the Yellow River basin (YWRB), while in the Yangtze River basin (YZRB) the causal effect of the ENSO amplitude is dominant. The presented results suggest that, in different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics should be employed for prediction of precipitation.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1509/2024/esd-15-1509-2024.pdf
spellingShingle Y. Latif
K. Fan
K. Fan
G. Wang
M. Paluš
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
Earth System Dynamics
title Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
title_full Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
title_fullStr Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
title_full_unstemmed Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
title_short Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
title_sort cross scale causal information flow from the el nino southern oscillation to precipitation in eastern china
url https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1509/2024/esd-15-1509-2024.pdf
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AT gwang crossscalecausalinformationflowfromtheelninosouthernoscillationtoprecipitationineasternchina
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