Community evolution prediction based on feature change patterns in social networks

Abstract Predicting community evolution in dynamic social networks is crucial for relevant authorities to understand trends and implement safety measures in advance. Most existing algorithms for predicting community evolution rely on extracting community state features to forecast evolutionary event...

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Main Authors: Jingyi Ding, Guojing Sun, Tiwen Wang, Licheng Jiao, Junzhao Du, Jianshe Wu, Hongfei Wang, Ruohui Cheng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-04-01
Series:Scientific Reports
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91766-7
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author Jingyi Ding
Guojing Sun
Tiwen Wang
Licheng Jiao
Junzhao Du
Jianshe Wu
Hongfei Wang
Ruohui Cheng
author_facet Jingyi Ding
Guojing Sun
Tiwen Wang
Licheng Jiao
Junzhao Du
Jianshe Wu
Hongfei Wang
Ruohui Cheng
author_sort Jingyi Ding
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Predicting community evolution in dynamic social networks is crucial for relevant authorities to understand trends and implement safety measures in advance. Most existing algorithms for predicting community evolution rely on extracting community state features to forecast evolutionary events. However, in highly interactive social networks, such as corporate collaboration networks in financial markets, extracting high-quality community state features is extremely challenging. This study proposes a community evolution prediction method based on feature change patterns, aiming to explore the changing features during community evolution, and designs an algorithm to learn the rules of feature changes, thereby obtaining the feature change pattern of the community. Compared to traditional methods that rely on static state features, our proposed approach captures richer dynamic information and more accurately reflects community evolution trends. Additionally, we have designed a parallel learning strategy with parameter sharing, based on the consistency of community environments. Experimental results show that our method, based on feature change patterns, achieves approximately 25% improvement in maximum predictive performance on the AS, DBLP, and Facebook datasets compared to baseline methods (TNSEP, GNAN, and MF-PSF). Additionally, the parallel learning mechanism reduces training time by nearly half.
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spelling doaj-art-38d28392b0fe48ecb451b32bbe58aeea2025-08-20T02:19:57ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-04-0115111610.1038/s41598-025-91766-7Community evolution prediction based on feature change patterns in social networksJingyi Ding0Guojing Sun1Tiwen Wang2Licheng Jiao3Junzhao Du4Jianshe Wu5Hongfei Wang6Ruohui Cheng7School of Artificial Intelligence, Xidian UniversitySchool of Artificial Intelligence, Xidian UniversitySchool of Artificial Intelligence, Xidian UniversitySchool of Artificial Intelligence, Xidian UniversitySchool of Computer Science, Xidian UniversitySchool of Artificial Intelligence, Xidian UniversitySchool of Artificial Intelligence, Xidian UniversitySchool of Artificial Intelligence, Xidian UniversityAbstract Predicting community evolution in dynamic social networks is crucial for relevant authorities to understand trends and implement safety measures in advance. Most existing algorithms for predicting community evolution rely on extracting community state features to forecast evolutionary events. However, in highly interactive social networks, such as corporate collaboration networks in financial markets, extracting high-quality community state features is extremely challenging. This study proposes a community evolution prediction method based on feature change patterns, aiming to explore the changing features during community evolution, and designs an algorithm to learn the rules of feature changes, thereby obtaining the feature change pattern of the community. Compared to traditional methods that rely on static state features, our proposed approach captures richer dynamic information and more accurately reflects community evolution trends. Additionally, we have designed a parallel learning strategy with parameter sharing, based on the consistency of community environments. Experimental results show that our method, based on feature change patterns, achieves approximately 25% improvement in maximum predictive performance on the AS, DBLP, and Facebook datasets compared to baseline methods (TNSEP, GNAN, and MF-PSF). Additionally, the parallel learning mechanism reduces training time by nearly half.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91766-7Community evolution predictionFeature change patternsParallel long short-term memory modelCritical eventsSocial network analysis
spellingShingle Jingyi Ding
Guojing Sun
Tiwen Wang
Licheng Jiao
Junzhao Du
Jianshe Wu
Hongfei Wang
Ruohui Cheng
Community evolution prediction based on feature change patterns in social networks
Scientific Reports
Community evolution prediction
Feature change patterns
Parallel long short-term memory model
Critical events
Social network analysis
title Community evolution prediction based on feature change patterns in social networks
title_full Community evolution prediction based on feature change patterns in social networks
title_fullStr Community evolution prediction based on feature change patterns in social networks
title_full_unstemmed Community evolution prediction based on feature change patterns in social networks
title_short Community evolution prediction based on feature change patterns in social networks
title_sort community evolution prediction based on feature change patterns in social networks
topic Community evolution prediction
Feature change patterns
Parallel long short-term memory model
Critical events
Social network analysis
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-91766-7
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AT guojingsun communityevolutionpredictionbasedonfeaturechangepatternsinsocialnetworks
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AT lichengjiao communityevolutionpredictionbasedonfeaturechangepatternsinsocialnetworks
AT junzhaodu communityevolutionpredictionbasedonfeaturechangepatternsinsocialnetworks
AT jianshewu communityevolutionpredictionbasedonfeaturechangepatternsinsocialnetworks
AT hongfeiwang communityevolutionpredictionbasedonfeaturechangepatternsinsocialnetworks
AT ruohuicheng communityevolutionpredictionbasedonfeaturechangepatternsinsocialnetworks