Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom
Abstract Introduction Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were first introduced in the paediatric United Kingdom (UK) immunisation programme in 2006 which led to significant declines in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by targeted serotypes. Although paediatric PCVs provide some indirec...
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Adis, Springer Healthcare
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Infectious Diseases and Therapy |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s40121-025-01111-8 |
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| author | Rachel J. Oidtman Giulio Meleleo Oluwaseun Sharomi Ian R. Matthews Dionysios Ntais Robert B. Nachbar Tufail M. Malik Kevin M. Bakker |
| author_facet | Rachel J. Oidtman Giulio Meleleo Oluwaseun Sharomi Ian R. Matthews Dionysios Ntais Robert B. Nachbar Tufail M. Malik Kevin M. Bakker |
| author_sort | Rachel J. Oidtman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Introduction Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were first introduced in the paediatric United Kingdom (UK) immunisation programme in 2006 which led to significant declines in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by targeted serotypes. Although paediatric PCVs provide some indirect protection to adults, a significant IPD burden remains in older adults. Here, we compared three adult (65+ years-old) and risk group (2–64-year-old) vaccination scenarios, namely a continuation of the status quo with PPSV23 vaccination, using the recently licensed-in-adults PCV20, or using the new adult-focused 21-valent PCV, V116. Methods A population-level compartmental dynamic transmission model (DTM) was adapted to the UK setting. The model described Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage transmission dynamics and disease progression in the presence of age- and serotype-specific pneumococcal vaccines. We calibrated the DTM to age- and serotype-specific IPD data in the UK and used the model to make projections under the different adult vaccination scenarios while keeping PCV13 immunisation in children. Results The calibrated model yielded reasonable parameter values and model fits that closely matched observed IPD dynamics. Among 65+ year-olds, 10-year model projections predicted that the routine use of V116 would reduce IPD incidence by 15.5%, while PCV20 would reduce IPD incidence by 8.9% and the continued use of PPSV23 would increase incidence by 3.83%. There was a notable decrease in IPD incidence in the serotypes unique to V116. In the serotypes included in PCV20 but not V116, the model did not predict a resurgence of IPD. Conclusions Projections revealed that in adults, V116 led to significantly greater reductions in IPD in the 65+ year-old population compared with PCV20 or PPSV23. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-38d01795182a45659cefc2188c16ac75 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2193-8229 2193-6382 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Adis, Springer Healthcare |
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| series | Infectious Diseases and Therapy |
| spelling | doaj-art-38d01795182a45659cefc2188c16ac752025-08-20T02:10:13ZengAdis, Springer HealthcareInfectious Diseases and Therapy2193-82292193-63822025-02-0114358760210.1007/s40121-025-01111-8Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United KingdomRachel J. Oidtman0Giulio Meleleo1Oluwaseun Sharomi2Ian R. Matthews3Dionysios Ntais4Robert B. Nachbar5Tufail M. Malik6Kevin M. Bakker7Merck & Co., Inc.Wolfram Research, Inc.Merck & Co., Inc.MSD (UK) Ltd, Value, Access, and Devolved Nations (VAD)MSD (UK) Ltd, Value, Access, and Devolved Nations (VAD)Wolfram Research, Inc.Merck & Co., Inc.Merck & Co., Inc.Abstract Introduction Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were first introduced in the paediatric United Kingdom (UK) immunisation programme in 2006 which led to significant declines in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by targeted serotypes. Although paediatric PCVs provide some indirect protection to adults, a significant IPD burden remains in older adults. Here, we compared three adult (65+ years-old) and risk group (2–64-year-old) vaccination scenarios, namely a continuation of the status quo with PPSV23 vaccination, using the recently licensed-in-adults PCV20, or using the new adult-focused 21-valent PCV, V116. Methods A population-level compartmental dynamic transmission model (DTM) was adapted to the UK setting. The model described Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage transmission dynamics and disease progression in the presence of age- and serotype-specific pneumococcal vaccines. We calibrated the DTM to age- and serotype-specific IPD data in the UK and used the model to make projections under the different adult vaccination scenarios while keeping PCV13 immunisation in children. Results The calibrated model yielded reasonable parameter values and model fits that closely matched observed IPD dynamics. Among 65+ year-olds, 10-year model projections predicted that the routine use of V116 would reduce IPD incidence by 15.5%, while PCV20 would reduce IPD incidence by 8.9% and the continued use of PPSV23 would increase incidence by 3.83%. There was a notable decrease in IPD incidence in the serotypes unique to V116. In the serotypes included in PCV20 but not V116, the model did not predict a resurgence of IPD. Conclusions Projections revealed that in adults, V116 led to significantly greater reductions in IPD in the 65+ year-old population compared with PCV20 or PPSV23.https://doi.org/10.1007/s40121-025-01111-8Dynamic transmission modelInvasive pneumococcal diseaseStreptococcus pneumoniae carriage |
| spellingShingle | Rachel J. Oidtman Giulio Meleleo Oluwaseun Sharomi Ian R. Matthews Dionysios Ntais Robert B. Nachbar Tufail M. Malik Kevin M. Bakker Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom Infectious Diseases and Therapy Dynamic transmission model Invasive pneumococcal disease Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage |
| title | Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom |
| title_full | Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom |
| title_short | Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom |
| title_sort | modelling the epidemiological impact of different adult pneumococcal vaccination strategies in the united kingdom |
| topic | Dynamic transmission model Invasive pneumococcal disease Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s40121-025-01111-8 |
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