Enhanced Eastern Pacific Warming Weakens ENSO Asymmetry Post‐2100 Under Persistent Greenhouse Warming
Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a strong amplitude asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña, in which establishment of atmospheric convection in the climatologically cold and dry eastern Pacific provides a major source of nonlinearity. Under greenhouse warming, ENSO is project...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115407 |
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| _version_ | 1849395704556945408 |
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| author | Tao Geng Wenju Cai |
| author_facet | Tao Geng Wenju Cai |
| author_sort | Tao Geng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a strong amplitude asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña, in which establishment of atmospheric convection in the climatologically cold and dry eastern Pacific provides a major source of nonlinearity. Under greenhouse warming, ENSO is projected to strengthen pre‐2100 and weaken thereafter, but how ENSO asymmetry may change is unclear. Here we show that despite a muted change in the 21st century, ENSO amplitude asymmetry in sea surface temperature (SST) weakens substantially post‐2100 under persistent greenhouse warming. In a warming climate beyond 2100, the eastern Pacific continues to warm faster than the surrounding regions, pushing SSTs above the convective threshold. A wetter background favors a larger rainfall reduction in response to cold SST anomalies, thereby diminishing the nonlinearity of convective response and associated coupled feedbacks with respect to El Niño and La Niña. Such changes are absent under low‐emission scenarios when the eastern‐Pacific warming ceases after 2100. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-38c6b73b8c7d40ccbbcebd5083045f6e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-38c6b73b8c7d40ccbbcebd5083045f6e2025-08-20T03:39:32ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-07-015213n/an/a10.1029/2025GL115407Enhanced Eastern Pacific Warming Weakens ENSO Asymmetry Post‐2100 Under Persistent Greenhouse WarmingTao Geng0Wenju Cai1Laoshan Laboratory Qingdao ChinaLaoshan Laboratory Qingdao ChinaAbstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a strong amplitude asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña, in which establishment of atmospheric convection in the climatologically cold and dry eastern Pacific provides a major source of nonlinearity. Under greenhouse warming, ENSO is projected to strengthen pre‐2100 and weaken thereafter, but how ENSO asymmetry may change is unclear. Here we show that despite a muted change in the 21st century, ENSO amplitude asymmetry in sea surface temperature (SST) weakens substantially post‐2100 under persistent greenhouse warming. In a warming climate beyond 2100, the eastern Pacific continues to warm faster than the surrounding regions, pushing SSTs above the convective threshold. A wetter background favors a larger rainfall reduction in response to cold SST anomalies, thereby diminishing the nonlinearity of convective response and associated coupled feedbacks with respect to El Niño and La Niña. Such changes are absent under low‐emission scenarios when the eastern‐Pacific warming ceases after 2100.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115407 |
| spellingShingle | Tao Geng Wenju Cai Enhanced Eastern Pacific Warming Weakens ENSO Asymmetry Post‐2100 Under Persistent Greenhouse Warming Geophysical Research Letters |
| title | Enhanced Eastern Pacific Warming Weakens ENSO Asymmetry Post‐2100 Under Persistent Greenhouse Warming |
| title_full | Enhanced Eastern Pacific Warming Weakens ENSO Asymmetry Post‐2100 Under Persistent Greenhouse Warming |
| title_fullStr | Enhanced Eastern Pacific Warming Weakens ENSO Asymmetry Post‐2100 Under Persistent Greenhouse Warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhanced Eastern Pacific Warming Weakens ENSO Asymmetry Post‐2100 Under Persistent Greenhouse Warming |
| title_short | Enhanced Eastern Pacific Warming Weakens ENSO Asymmetry Post‐2100 Under Persistent Greenhouse Warming |
| title_sort | enhanced eastern pacific warming weakens enso asymmetry post 2100 under persistent greenhouse warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115407 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT taogeng enhancedeasternpacificwarmingweakensensoasymmetrypost2100underpersistentgreenhousewarming AT wenjucai enhancedeasternpacificwarmingweakensensoasymmetrypost2100underpersistentgreenhousewarming |