Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations
Abstract In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide‐angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002553 |
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| author | Tanja Amerstorfer Jürgen Hinterreiter Martin A. Reiss Christian Möstl Jackie A. Davies Rachel L. Bailey Andreas J. Weiss Mateja Dumbović Maike Bauer Ute V. Amerstorfer Richard A. Harrison |
| author_facet | Tanja Amerstorfer Jürgen Hinterreiter Martin A. Reiss Christian Möstl Jackie A. Davies Rachel L. Bailey Andreas J. Weiss Mateja Dumbović Maike Bauer Ute V. Amerstorfer Richard A. Harrison |
| author_sort | Tanja Amerstorfer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide‐angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by exploiting this capability, instead of relying on coronagraph observations only, it is possible to improve today's CME arrival time predictions. The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes that the CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane is an ellipse and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed; that is, it is drag based. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different setups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well‐defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between 6.2 ± 7.9 and 9.9 ± 13 hr depending on the model setup used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1. It can also be used with near‐real‐time STEREO‐A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next ∼7 years when STEREO‐A is observing the Sun‐Earth space. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3811cb443ff14dec9eae742fe0cac4d8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-3811cb443ff14dec9eae742fe0cac4d82025-01-14T16:27:00ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902021-01-01191n/an/a10.1029/2020SW002553Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging ObservationsTanja Amerstorfer0Jürgen Hinterreiter1Martin A. Reiss2Christian Möstl3Jackie A. Davies4Rachel L. Bailey5Andreas J. Weiss6Mateja Dumbović7Maike Bauer8Ute V. Amerstorfer9Richard A. Harrison10Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaRAL Space, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Didcot UKSpace Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaHvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy University of Zagreb Zagreb CroatiaSpace Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaSpace Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz AustriaRAL Space, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Didcot UKAbstract In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide‐angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by exploiting this capability, instead of relying on coronagraph observations only, it is possible to improve today's CME arrival time predictions. The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes that the CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane is an ellipse and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed; that is, it is drag based. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different setups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well‐defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between 6.2 ± 7.9 and 9.9 ± 13 hr depending on the model setup used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1. It can also be used with near‐real‐time STEREO‐A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next ∼7 years when STEREO‐A is observing the Sun‐Earth space.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002553space weather predictioncoronal mass ejectionsensemble modelingheliospheric imaging |
| spellingShingle | Tanja Amerstorfer Jürgen Hinterreiter Martin A. Reiss Christian Möstl Jackie A. Davies Rachel L. Bailey Andreas J. Weiss Mateja Dumbović Maike Bauer Ute V. Amerstorfer Richard A. Harrison Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations Space Weather space weather prediction coronal mass ejections ensemble modeling heliospheric imaging |
| title | Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations |
| title_full | Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations |
| title_short | Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations |
| title_sort | evaluation of cme arrival prediction using ensemble modeling based on heliospheric imaging observations |
| topic | space weather prediction coronal mass ejections ensemble modeling heliospheric imaging |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002553 |
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