Global carbon emission governance and green trade: the moderating role of political stability and trade diversity

In contrast to traditional trade, green trade fully considers the social costs of production, investment, and export following economic activities, building upon environmental governance and protection. While the promotion of green trade is a historical inevitability, countries must actively foster...

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Main Authors: Mengyao Guo, Yiniu Cui, Zizhuo Li, Jingjing Wang, Shuo Qiao
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-03-01
Series:Frontiers in Environmental Science
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1517472/full
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author Mengyao Guo
Yiniu Cui
Zizhuo Li
Jingjing Wang
Shuo Qiao
author_facet Mengyao Guo
Yiniu Cui
Zizhuo Li
Jingjing Wang
Shuo Qiao
author_sort Mengyao Guo
collection DOAJ
description In contrast to traditional trade, green trade fully considers the social costs of production, investment, and export following economic activities, building upon environmental governance and protection. While the promotion of green trade is a historical inevitability, countries must actively foster collaboration in new trade initiatives to meet carbon reduction targets. However, during the process of encouraging the expansion of green trade, there is a risk that countries may further increase their carbon emissions, thereby exacerbating environmental degradation. This study utilizes panel data from G20 countries between 2000 and 2022 to examine the relationship between carbon emissions and green trade through an Ordinary Least Squares regression model, with the primary objective of determining whether green trade increases or decreases carbon emissions. To further explore the moderating role of trade diversity and political stability on the relationship between carbon emissions and green trade, a moderating effect regression model is also employed. Additionally, this paper introduces a quantile regression model to assess the varying impact of green trade on carbon emissions across different quantiles. The study’s findings indicate that green trade tends to result in higher carbon emissions. Under conditions of political stability, the potential for green trade to reduce carbon emissions diminishes. Conversely, the positive impact of trade diversification inhibits the positive effects of green trade on carbon emissions. The coefficient of green trade is positive and steadily increases across various quantiles of carbon emissions. At the 0.9 quantile, the association is significantly positive, offering further evidence that green trade could lead to increased carbon emissions. Based on these findings, the paper suggests that a significant reduction in carbon emissions may not be achievable in the near future, and that the path to expanding green trade is both challenging and protracted. Therefore, governments worldwide must carefully implement green trade practices, protect the environment, achieve sustainable economic growth, and promote the rational allocation of resources as prerequisites for the long-term development of the green sector.
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spelling doaj-art-3786b50d1d304dbc88cafcc8c977adea2025-08-20T03:01:58ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2025-03-011310.3389/fenvs.2025.15174721517472Global carbon emission governance and green trade: the moderating role of political stability and trade diversityMengyao Guo0Yiniu Cui1Zizhuo Li2Jingjing Wang3Shuo Qiao4Yunnan University, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaYunnan University, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaYunnan University, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaUniversity of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, ChinaHenan University of Economics and Law, Henan, ChinaIn contrast to traditional trade, green trade fully considers the social costs of production, investment, and export following economic activities, building upon environmental governance and protection. While the promotion of green trade is a historical inevitability, countries must actively foster collaboration in new trade initiatives to meet carbon reduction targets. However, during the process of encouraging the expansion of green trade, there is a risk that countries may further increase their carbon emissions, thereby exacerbating environmental degradation. This study utilizes panel data from G20 countries between 2000 and 2022 to examine the relationship between carbon emissions and green trade through an Ordinary Least Squares regression model, with the primary objective of determining whether green trade increases or decreases carbon emissions. To further explore the moderating role of trade diversity and political stability on the relationship between carbon emissions and green trade, a moderating effect regression model is also employed. Additionally, this paper introduces a quantile regression model to assess the varying impact of green trade on carbon emissions across different quantiles. The study’s findings indicate that green trade tends to result in higher carbon emissions. Under conditions of political stability, the potential for green trade to reduce carbon emissions diminishes. Conversely, the positive impact of trade diversification inhibits the positive effects of green trade on carbon emissions. The coefficient of green trade is positive and steadily increases across various quantiles of carbon emissions. At the 0.9 quantile, the association is significantly positive, offering further evidence that green trade could lead to increased carbon emissions. Based on these findings, the paper suggests that a significant reduction in carbon emissions may not be achievable in the near future, and that the path to expanding green trade is both challenging and protracted. Therefore, governments worldwide must carefully implement green trade practices, protect the environment, achieve sustainable economic growth, and promote the rational allocation of resources as prerequisites for the long-term development of the green sector.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1517472/fullgreen tradepolitical stabilitytrade diversificationmoderating effect regression modelquantile regression model
spellingShingle Mengyao Guo
Yiniu Cui
Zizhuo Li
Jingjing Wang
Shuo Qiao
Global carbon emission governance and green trade: the moderating role of political stability and trade diversity
Frontiers in Environmental Science
green trade
political stability
trade diversification
moderating effect regression model
quantile regression model
title Global carbon emission governance and green trade: the moderating role of political stability and trade diversity
title_full Global carbon emission governance and green trade: the moderating role of political stability and trade diversity
title_fullStr Global carbon emission governance and green trade: the moderating role of political stability and trade diversity
title_full_unstemmed Global carbon emission governance and green trade: the moderating role of political stability and trade diversity
title_short Global carbon emission governance and green trade: the moderating role of political stability and trade diversity
title_sort global carbon emission governance and green trade the moderating role of political stability and trade diversity
topic green trade
political stability
trade diversification
moderating effect regression model
quantile regression model
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1517472/full
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AT jingjingwang globalcarbonemissiongovernanceandgreentradethemoderatingroleofpoliticalstabilityandtradediversity
AT shuoqiao globalcarbonemissiongovernanceandgreentradethemoderatingroleofpoliticalstabilityandtradediversity