Impact of Urbanization Process on Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Non-Stationary GEV Model
In recent years, the increase in extreme precipitation events has significantly impeded urban development. To explore the relationship between urbanization and extreme precipitation events, Shenzhen City was investigated in this study. Urbanization indicators were integrated into the generalized ext...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
| Published: |
Editorial Office of Pearl River
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.01.003 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1823864839155482624 |
|---|---|
| author | WU Haoran LAN Tian CHEN Yongqin WU Yanrui QIAO Tianling LI Minglin |
| author_facet | WU Haoran LAN Tian CHEN Yongqin WU Yanrui QIAO Tianling LI Minglin |
| author_sort | WU Haoran |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent years, the increase in extreme precipitation events has significantly impeded urban development. To explore the relationship between urbanization and extreme precipitation events, Shenzhen City was investigated in this study. Urbanization indicators were integrated into the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model by using four parameter extension methods. After two screenings, the optimal model was obtained, and the non-stationary precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve was obtained. The non-stationarity was quantitatively analyzed. The results show that: ① Non-stationary GEV models incorporating urbanization indicators are superior to the stationary models. The applicability of the stationary GEV models is reduced. ② The stationary IDF curves underestimate the precipitation intensity of all extreme precipitation events by approximately 6.3% and overestimate the non-exceedance probability. ③ Urbanization significantly impacts short-duration precipitation events, with a relatively smaller effect on long-duration precipitation events. As the return period increases, the influence of urbanization on precipitation intensifies; for each additional year of the return period, its impact on precipitation intensity increases by approximately 0.13 mm/h. Exploring non-stationarity under the influence of urbanization can provide a scientific basis for urban responses to extreme precipitation events. This is of great significance for urban flood control. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-37850b1b89f047c9bda98c4aff20de61 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1001-9235 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Pearl River |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renmin Zhujiang |
| spelling | doaj-art-37850b1b89f047c9bda98c4aff20de612025-02-08T19:00:04ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352025-01-0146233170120769Impact of Urbanization Process on Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Non-Stationary GEV ModelWU HaoranLAN TianCHEN YongqinWU YanruiQIAO TianlingLI MinglinIn recent years, the increase in extreme precipitation events has significantly impeded urban development. To explore the relationship between urbanization and extreme precipitation events, Shenzhen City was investigated in this study. Urbanization indicators were integrated into the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model by using four parameter extension methods. After two screenings, the optimal model was obtained, and the non-stationary precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve was obtained. The non-stationarity was quantitatively analyzed. The results show that: ① Non-stationary GEV models incorporating urbanization indicators are superior to the stationary models. The applicability of the stationary GEV models is reduced. ② The stationary IDF curves underestimate the precipitation intensity of all extreme precipitation events by approximately 6.3% and overestimate the non-exceedance probability. ③ Urbanization significantly impacts short-duration precipitation events, with a relatively smaller effect on long-duration precipitation events. As the return period increases, the influence of urbanization on precipitation intensifies; for each additional year of the return period, its impact on precipitation intensity increases by approximately 0.13 mm/h. Exploring non-stationarity under the influence of urbanization can provide a scientific basis for urban responses to extreme precipitation events. This is of great significance for urban flood control.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.01.003urbanizationextreme precipitationnon-stationaryGEV modelIDF curves |
| spellingShingle | WU Haoran LAN Tian CHEN Yongqin WU Yanrui QIAO Tianling LI Minglin Impact of Urbanization Process on Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Non-Stationary GEV Model Renmin Zhujiang urbanization extreme precipitation non-stationary GEV model IDF curves |
| title | Impact of Urbanization Process on Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Non-Stationary GEV Model |
| title_full | Impact of Urbanization Process on Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Non-Stationary GEV Model |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Urbanization Process on Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Non-Stationary GEV Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Urbanization Process on Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Non-Stationary GEV Model |
| title_short | Impact of Urbanization Process on Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Non-Stationary GEV Model |
| title_sort | impact of urbanization process on extreme precipitation events based on non stationary gev model |
| topic | urbanization extreme precipitation non-stationary GEV model IDF curves |
| url | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.01.003 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT wuhaoran impactofurbanizationprocessonextremeprecipitationeventsbasedonnonstationarygevmodel AT lantian impactofurbanizationprocessonextremeprecipitationeventsbasedonnonstationarygevmodel AT chenyongqin impactofurbanizationprocessonextremeprecipitationeventsbasedonnonstationarygevmodel AT wuyanrui impactofurbanizationprocessonextremeprecipitationeventsbasedonnonstationarygevmodel AT qiaotianling impactofurbanizationprocessonextremeprecipitationeventsbasedonnonstationarygevmodel AT liminglin impactofurbanizationprocessonextremeprecipitationeventsbasedonnonstationarygevmodel |