Risk assessment of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy based on uncertain random theory
Variable renewable energy access to rail transportation is an effective way for electrified railroads to realize their own efficient and renewable energy use, however, the uncertainty of variable renewable energy also brings risks to the reliable transportation of railroad. Evaluating the operationa...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061524006665 |
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| author | Yanbo Chen Xiaoxue Li Zhi Zhang |
| author_facet | Yanbo Chen Xiaoxue Li Zhi Zhang |
| author_sort | Yanbo Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Variable renewable energy access to rail transportation is an effective way for electrified railroads to realize their own efficient and renewable energy use, however, the uncertainty of variable renewable energy also brings risks to the reliable transportation of railroad. Evaluating the operational risk of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy is particularly crucial, but the absence of operation data for variable renewable energy equipment in rail transportation complicates risk assessment. Therefore, this research provides a risk assessment method based on uncertain random theory. Firstly, the uncertainty random theory is applied to take the first failure time of the new energy generation equipment and the traditional equipment as an uncertain variable and a random variable, respectively, the value-at-risk function is defined in combination with the consequences of the system failure; next, the competing failure model for the random system is established by thoroughly considering degradation and shock failures; for the uncertain system, the evidence theory’s framework is used to establish the multiple sources imprecise information conflict and fusion model; finally, the consequences of failure of the system are quantified and the value-at-risk calculation method for the rail transit systems with variable renewable energy is propose. The analysis of case studies shows that the suggested method effectively assesses the operation risk of the rail transit systems with variable renewable energy and resolves the risk assessment issue brought about by the absence of operating data for certain equipment in these systems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3757e438cbc54f7ab1e44ac9944d19f9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0142-0615 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems |
| spelling | doaj-art-3757e438cbc54f7ab1e44ac9944d19f92025-01-19T06:24:03ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems0142-06152025-03-01164110441Risk assessment of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy based on uncertain random theoryYanbo Chen0Xiaoxue Li1Zhi Zhang2State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, ChinaCorresponding author at: State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.; State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, ChinaVariable renewable energy access to rail transportation is an effective way for electrified railroads to realize their own efficient and renewable energy use, however, the uncertainty of variable renewable energy also brings risks to the reliable transportation of railroad. Evaluating the operational risk of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy is particularly crucial, but the absence of operation data for variable renewable energy equipment in rail transportation complicates risk assessment. Therefore, this research provides a risk assessment method based on uncertain random theory. Firstly, the uncertainty random theory is applied to take the first failure time of the new energy generation equipment and the traditional equipment as an uncertain variable and a random variable, respectively, the value-at-risk function is defined in combination with the consequences of the system failure; next, the competing failure model for the random system is established by thoroughly considering degradation and shock failures; for the uncertain system, the evidence theory’s framework is used to establish the multiple sources imprecise information conflict and fusion model; finally, the consequences of failure of the system are quantified and the value-at-risk calculation method for the rail transit systems with variable renewable energy is propose. The analysis of case studies shows that the suggested method effectively assesses the operation risk of the rail transit systems with variable renewable energy and resolves the risk assessment issue brought about by the absence of operating data for certain equipment in these systems.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061524006665Rail transit systems with variable renewable energyUncertain random theoryRisk assessmentMultiple sources of inaccurate information |
| spellingShingle | Yanbo Chen Xiaoxue Li Zhi Zhang Risk assessment of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy based on uncertain random theory International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems Rail transit systems with variable renewable energy Uncertain random theory Risk assessment Multiple sources of inaccurate information |
| title | Risk assessment of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy based on uncertain random theory |
| title_full | Risk assessment of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy based on uncertain random theory |
| title_fullStr | Risk assessment of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy based on uncertain random theory |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk assessment of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy based on uncertain random theory |
| title_short | Risk assessment of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy based on uncertain random theory |
| title_sort | risk assessment of rail transit systems with variable renewable energy based on uncertain random theory |
| topic | Rail transit systems with variable renewable energy Uncertain random theory Risk assessment Multiple sources of inaccurate information |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061524006665 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yanbochen riskassessmentofrailtransitsystemswithvariablerenewableenergybasedonuncertainrandomtheory AT xiaoxueli riskassessmentofrailtransitsystemswithvariablerenewableenergybasedonuncertainrandomtheory AT zhizhang riskassessmentofrailtransitsystemswithvariablerenewableenergybasedonuncertainrandomtheory |