Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe
Its geographic range expansion and rising incidence make West Nile Virus (WNV) a major public health challenge in Europe. Although numerous studies have investigated geographic variation in WNV incidence in humans or equines, most have focused on climate and land-use factors; however, the implicatio...
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | One Health |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771425000771 |
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| author | Shirin Taheri Mikel Alexander González María José Ruiz-López Ramón Soriguer Jordi Figuerola |
| author_facet | Shirin Taheri Mikel Alexander González María José Ruiz-López Ramón Soriguer Jordi Figuerola |
| author_sort | Shirin Taheri |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Its geographic range expansion and rising incidence make West Nile Virus (WNV) a major public health challenge in Europe. Although numerous studies have investigated geographic variation in WNV incidence in humans or equines, most have focused on climate and land-use factors; however, the implications of vector co-occurrence and niche overlap remain largely unexplored. Identifying areas where highly competent vectors overlap with favourable environmental conditions is crucial for determining areas at risk for future WNV outbreaks.We analysed the distribution and habitat suitability of four Culex mosquito vectors across Europe using an ensemble of six modelling techniques and relevant environmental variables. We generated probability maps, converted them into binary distribution maps through threshold-based methods, and weighted them by WNV vector competence to identify hotspots of vector co-occurrence and human cases.Our findings indicate that WNV vectors are unevenly distributed across Europe, with southern regions emerging as hotspots, particularly due to the presence of highly competent vectors such as Culex univittatus s.l., Culex modestus, and Culex pipiens. The overlap of Cx. modestus, Cx. torrentium, and Cx. pipiens in central, western, and eastern Europe indicates that competent WNV vectors are present in nearly all European regions. Among the environmental factors analysed, mean winter temperatures were the most influential, suggesting that mild winters could increase the distribution of WNV competent vectors. Our results also revealed a strong spatial overlap between hotspots of human WNV cases and vector co-occurrence, highlighting regions of elevated transmission risk.The high-risk hotspots identified in this large-scale study can guide local surveillance efforts and optimize resource allocation, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of WNV surveillance. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-373d94c62dab4f66b2983f7cb0dd04df |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2352-7714 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | One Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-373d94c62dab4f66b2983f7cb0dd04df2025-08-20T03:21:50ZengElsevierOne Health2352-77142025-06-012010104110.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101041Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across EuropeShirin Taheri0Mikel Alexander González1María José Ruiz-López2Ramón Soriguer3Jordi Figuerola4Departamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Corresponding author at: Departamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain.Departamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, SpainIts geographic range expansion and rising incidence make West Nile Virus (WNV) a major public health challenge in Europe. Although numerous studies have investigated geographic variation in WNV incidence in humans or equines, most have focused on climate and land-use factors; however, the implications of vector co-occurrence and niche overlap remain largely unexplored. Identifying areas where highly competent vectors overlap with favourable environmental conditions is crucial for determining areas at risk for future WNV outbreaks.We analysed the distribution and habitat suitability of four Culex mosquito vectors across Europe using an ensemble of six modelling techniques and relevant environmental variables. We generated probability maps, converted them into binary distribution maps through threshold-based methods, and weighted them by WNV vector competence to identify hotspots of vector co-occurrence and human cases.Our findings indicate that WNV vectors are unevenly distributed across Europe, with southern regions emerging as hotspots, particularly due to the presence of highly competent vectors such as Culex univittatus s.l., Culex modestus, and Culex pipiens. The overlap of Cx. modestus, Cx. torrentium, and Cx. pipiens in central, western, and eastern Europe indicates that competent WNV vectors are present in nearly all European regions. Among the environmental factors analysed, mean winter temperatures were the most influential, suggesting that mild winters could increase the distribution of WNV competent vectors. Our results also revealed a strong spatial overlap between hotspots of human WNV cases and vector co-occurrence, highlighting regions of elevated transmission risk.The high-risk hotspots identified in this large-scale study can guide local surveillance efforts and optimize resource allocation, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of WNV surveillance.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771425000771West Nile virusPathogeographyRisk mapsSpatial disease ecologyHotspot analysis, Cx. pipiensCx. perexiguus |
| spellingShingle | Shirin Taheri Mikel Alexander González María José Ruiz-López Ramón Soriguer Jordi Figuerola Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe One Health West Nile virus Pathogeography Risk maps Spatial disease ecology Hotspot analysis, Cx. pipiens Cx. perexiguus |
| title | Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe |
| title_full | Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe |
| title_fullStr | Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe |
| title_short | Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe |
| title_sort | patterns of west nile virus vector co occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across europe |
| topic | West Nile virus Pathogeography Risk maps Spatial disease ecology Hotspot analysis, Cx. pipiens Cx. perexiguus |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771425000771 |
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