Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe

Its geographic range expansion and rising incidence make West Nile Virus (WNV) a major public health challenge in Europe. Although numerous studies have investigated geographic variation in WNV incidence in humans or equines, most have focused on climate and land-use factors; however, the implicatio...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Shirin Taheri, Mikel Alexander González, María José Ruiz-López, Ramón Soriguer, Jordi Figuerola
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-06-01
Series:One Health
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771425000771
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849688849734696960
author Shirin Taheri
Mikel Alexander González
María José Ruiz-López
Ramón Soriguer
Jordi Figuerola
author_facet Shirin Taheri
Mikel Alexander González
María José Ruiz-López
Ramón Soriguer
Jordi Figuerola
author_sort Shirin Taheri
collection DOAJ
description Its geographic range expansion and rising incidence make West Nile Virus (WNV) a major public health challenge in Europe. Although numerous studies have investigated geographic variation in WNV incidence in humans or equines, most have focused on climate and land-use factors; however, the implications of vector co-occurrence and niche overlap remain largely unexplored. Identifying areas where highly competent vectors overlap with favourable environmental conditions is crucial for determining areas at risk for future WNV outbreaks.We analysed the distribution and habitat suitability of four Culex mosquito vectors across Europe using an ensemble of six modelling techniques and relevant environmental variables. We generated probability maps, converted them into binary distribution maps through threshold-based methods, and weighted them by WNV vector competence to identify hotspots of vector co-occurrence and human cases.Our findings indicate that WNV vectors are unevenly distributed across Europe, with southern regions emerging as hotspots, particularly due to the presence of highly competent vectors such as Culex univittatus s.l., Culex modestus, and Culex pipiens. The overlap of Cx. modestus, Cx. torrentium, and Cx. pipiens in central, western, and eastern Europe indicates that competent WNV vectors are present in nearly all European regions. Among the environmental factors analysed, mean winter temperatures were the most influential, suggesting that mild winters could increase the distribution of WNV competent vectors. Our results also revealed a strong spatial overlap between hotspots of human WNV cases and vector co-occurrence, highlighting regions of elevated transmission risk.The high-risk hotspots identified in this large-scale study can guide local surveillance efforts and optimize resource allocation, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of WNV surveillance.
format Article
id doaj-art-373d94c62dab4f66b2983f7cb0dd04df
institution DOAJ
issn 2352-7714
language English
publishDate 2025-06-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series One Health
spelling doaj-art-373d94c62dab4f66b2983f7cb0dd04df2025-08-20T03:21:50ZengElsevierOne Health2352-77142025-06-012010104110.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101041Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across EuropeShirin Taheri0Mikel Alexander González1María José Ruiz-López2Ramón Soriguer3Jordi Figuerola4Departamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Corresponding author at: Departamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain.Departamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Biología de la Conservación y Cambio Global, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Sevilla, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, SpainIts geographic range expansion and rising incidence make West Nile Virus (WNV) a major public health challenge in Europe. Although numerous studies have investigated geographic variation in WNV incidence in humans or equines, most have focused on climate and land-use factors; however, the implications of vector co-occurrence and niche overlap remain largely unexplored. Identifying areas where highly competent vectors overlap with favourable environmental conditions is crucial for determining areas at risk for future WNV outbreaks.We analysed the distribution and habitat suitability of four Culex mosquito vectors across Europe using an ensemble of six modelling techniques and relevant environmental variables. We generated probability maps, converted them into binary distribution maps through threshold-based methods, and weighted them by WNV vector competence to identify hotspots of vector co-occurrence and human cases.Our findings indicate that WNV vectors are unevenly distributed across Europe, with southern regions emerging as hotspots, particularly due to the presence of highly competent vectors such as Culex univittatus s.l., Culex modestus, and Culex pipiens. The overlap of Cx. modestus, Cx. torrentium, and Cx. pipiens in central, western, and eastern Europe indicates that competent WNV vectors are present in nearly all European regions. Among the environmental factors analysed, mean winter temperatures were the most influential, suggesting that mild winters could increase the distribution of WNV competent vectors. Our results also revealed a strong spatial overlap between hotspots of human WNV cases and vector co-occurrence, highlighting regions of elevated transmission risk.The high-risk hotspots identified in this large-scale study can guide local surveillance efforts and optimize resource allocation, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of WNV surveillance.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771425000771West Nile virusPathogeographyRisk mapsSpatial disease ecologyHotspot analysis, Cx. pipiensCx. perexiguus
spellingShingle Shirin Taheri
Mikel Alexander González
María José Ruiz-López
Ramón Soriguer
Jordi Figuerola
Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe
One Health
West Nile virus
Pathogeography
Risk maps
Spatial disease ecology
Hotspot analysis, Cx. pipiens
Cx. perexiguus
title Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe
title_full Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe
title_fullStr Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe
title_full_unstemmed Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe
title_short Patterns of West Nile virus vector co-occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across Europe
title_sort patterns of west nile virus vector co occurrence and spatial overlap with human cases across europe
topic West Nile virus
Pathogeography
Risk maps
Spatial disease ecology
Hotspot analysis, Cx. pipiens
Cx. perexiguus
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771425000771
work_keys_str_mv AT shirintaheri patternsofwestnilevirusvectorcooccurrenceandspatialoverlapwithhumancasesacrosseurope
AT mikelalexandergonzalez patternsofwestnilevirusvectorcooccurrenceandspatialoverlapwithhumancasesacrosseurope
AT mariajoseruizlopez patternsofwestnilevirusvectorcooccurrenceandspatialoverlapwithhumancasesacrosseurope
AT ramonsoriguer patternsofwestnilevirusvectorcooccurrenceandspatialoverlapwithhumancasesacrosseurope
AT jordifiguerola patternsofwestnilevirusvectorcooccurrenceandspatialoverlapwithhumancasesacrosseurope