Institutional quality, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: a long-run analysis of the ecological footprint in Somalia

Abstract This study investigates the complex linkage between economic growth, institutional quality, urbanization, trade openness, and Somalia’s ecological footprint from 1990 to 2020. To ensure reliable results, we initially conducted an assessment of the order of integration of our variables throu...

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Main Authors: Abdisalan Aden Mohamed, Abdikafi Hassan Abdi, Salad Shire Mohamud, Bashir Mohamed Osman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer 2025-06-01
Series:Discover Sustainability
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01063-6
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author Abdisalan Aden Mohamed
Abdikafi Hassan Abdi
Salad Shire Mohamud
Bashir Mohamed Osman
author_facet Abdisalan Aden Mohamed
Abdikafi Hassan Abdi
Salad Shire Mohamud
Bashir Mohamed Osman
author_sort Abdisalan Aden Mohamed
collection DOAJ
description Abstract This study investigates the complex linkage between economic growth, institutional quality, urbanization, trade openness, and Somalia’s ecological footprint from 1990 to 2020. To ensure reliable results, we initially conducted an assessment of the order of integration of our variables through the use of the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the Phillips-Perron (PP) stationarity tests, which indicated a mixed order of integration. Following this, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique, in combination with the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) methods, to investigate the long-term relationships and causal connections between these variables, further supported by the application of the Granger causality test. Our findings indicate that a 1% increase in GDP per capita increases the ecological footprint by 3.79%, while a 1% increase in GDP per capita squared decreases it by 0.05%. This supports the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, which means that at higher stages of economic development, the damage to the environment decreases. However, improvements in institutional quality have had minimal and statistically insignificant effects on the ecological footprint. While urbanization showed a considerable impact in the long run, its short-term effects were minimal. Interestingly, trade openness emerged as a positive factor, contributing to a reduction in the ecological footprint over time. To build a sustainable future, Somalia should balance economic growth with environmental protection by prioritizing green technologies, enhancing governance for enforcing environmental regulations, integrating sustainability into urban planning, and promoting trade in clean technologies to reduce its ecological footprint. Graphical abstract
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issn 2662-9984
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spelling doaj-art-370d49941b724a6a84d5b387601d257c2025-08-20T03:10:27ZengSpringerDiscover Sustainability2662-99842025-06-016112010.1007/s43621-025-01063-6Institutional quality, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: a long-run analysis of the ecological footprint in SomaliaAbdisalan Aden Mohamed0Abdikafi Hassan Abdi1Salad Shire Mohamud2Bashir Mohamed Osman3Faculty of Economics, SIMAD UniversityFaculty of Economics, SIMAD UniversityInstitute of Climate and Environment, SIMAD UniversityFaculty of Economics, SIMAD UniversityAbstract This study investigates the complex linkage between economic growth, institutional quality, urbanization, trade openness, and Somalia’s ecological footprint from 1990 to 2020. To ensure reliable results, we initially conducted an assessment of the order of integration of our variables through the use of the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the Phillips-Perron (PP) stationarity tests, which indicated a mixed order of integration. Following this, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique, in combination with the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) methods, to investigate the long-term relationships and causal connections between these variables, further supported by the application of the Granger causality test. Our findings indicate that a 1% increase in GDP per capita increases the ecological footprint by 3.79%, while a 1% increase in GDP per capita squared decreases it by 0.05%. This supports the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, which means that at higher stages of economic development, the damage to the environment decreases. However, improvements in institutional quality have had minimal and statistically insignificant effects on the ecological footprint. While urbanization showed a considerable impact in the long run, its short-term effects were minimal. Interestingly, trade openness emerged as a positive factor, contributing to a reduction in the ecological footprint over time. To build a sustainable future, Somalia should balance economic growth with environmental protection by prioritizing green technologies, enhancing governance for enforcing environmental regulations, integrating sustainability into urban planning, and promoting trade in clean technologies to reduce its ecological footprint. Graphical abstracthttps://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01063-6Ecological footprintUrbanizationEconomic growthInstitutional qualityTrade opennessARDL
spellingShingle Abdisalan Aden Mohamed
Abdikafi Hassan Abdi
Salad Shire Mohamud
Bashir Mohamed Osman
Institutional quality, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: a long-run analysis of the ecological footprint in Somalia
Discover Sustainability
Ecological footprint
Urbanization
Economic growth
Institutional quality
Trade openness
ARDL
title Institutional quality, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: a long-run analysis of the ecological footprint in Somalia
title_full Institutional quality, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: a long-run analysis of the ecological footprint in Somalia
title_fullStr Institutional quality, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: a long-run analysis of the ecological footprint in Somalia
title_full_unstemmed Institutional quality, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: a long-run analysis of the ecological footprint in Somalia
title_short Institutional quality, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: a long-run analysis of the ecological footprint in Somalia
title_sort institutional quality economic growth and environmental sustainability a long run analysis of the ecological footprint in somalia
topic Ecological footprint
Urbanization
Economic growth
Institutional quality
Trade openness
ARDL
url https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01063-6
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