Determinants of economic well-being and human development in Somalia: a dual analysis of GDP per capita and life expectancy
Economic well-being and human development are essential indicators of a nation’s progress, particularly in fragile states like Somalia, where political instability, weak institutions, and external dependencies pose persistent challenges. This study examines the long- and short-run effects of institu...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Cogent Economics & Finance |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2513486 |
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| author | Abdikadir Ahmed Mohamed Saido Nur Mohamed Ikran Mohamed Weyrah Maryan Daud Isse Ismahan Abdi Husein |
| author_facet | Abdikadir Ahmed Mohamed Saido Nur Mohamed Ikran Mohamed Weyrah Maryan Daud Isse Ismahan Abdi Husein |
| author_sort | Abdikadir Ahmed Mohamed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Economic well-being and human development are essential indicators of a nation’s progress, particularly in fragile states like Somalia, where political instability, weak institutions, and external dependencies pose persistent challenges. This study examines the long- and short-run effects of institutional quality, political stability, inflation, foreign aid, foreign direct investment (FDI), and urbanization on Somalia’s GDP per capita and life expectancy from 1989 to 2022, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). The findings indicate that institutional quality and FDI significantly enhance both GDP per capita and life expectancy in the long run, highlighting the importance of strong governance and foreign investment in driving economic and social progress. Conversely, foreign aid negatively affects both indicators, reinforcing concerns about aid dependency and weakened domestic productivity and healthcare systems. Political stability, inflation, and urbanization exhibit limited long-run effects, though urbanization negatively impacts both outcomes in the short run due to infrastructure constraints and healthcare pressures. These results emphasize the need for institutional reforms, investment-friendly policies, and reduced aid dependency. The study recommends policies that enhance governance, attract targeted FDI, improve urban planning, and strengthen long-term economic and social resilience in Somalia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-36f53e6e11394ca3ab3a3c6e2e5abda5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2332-2039 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cogent Economics & Finance |
| spelling | doaj-art-36f53e6e11394ca3ab3a3c6e2e5abda52025-08-20T03:25:02ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCogent Economics & Finance2332-20392025-12-0113110.1080/23322039.2025.2513486Determinants of economic well-being and human development in Somalia: a dual analysis of GDP per capita and life expectancyAbdikadir Ahmed Mohamed0Saido Nur Mohamed1Ikran Mohamed Weyrah2Maryan Daud Isse3Ismahan Abdi Husein4Faculty of Economics and Management, Jamhuriya University of Science and Technology, Mogadishu, SomaliaFaculty of Economics and Management, Jamhuriya University of Science and Technology, Mogadishu, SomaliaFaculty of Economics and Management, Jamhuriya University of Science and Technology, Mogadishu, SomaliaFaculty of Economics and Management, Jamhuriya University of Science and Technology, Mogadishu, SomaliaFaculty of Economics and Management, Jamhuriya University of Science and Technology, Mogadishu, SomaliaEconomic well-being and human development are essential indicators of a nation’s progress, particularly in fragile states like Somalia, where political instability, weak institutions, and external dependencies pose persistent challenges. This study examines the long- and short-run effects of institutional quality, political stability, inflation, foreign aid, foreign direct investment (FDI), and urbanization on Somalia’s GDP per capita and life expectancy from 1989 to 2022, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). The findings indicate that institutional quality and FDI significantly enhance both GDP per capita and life expectancy in the long run, highlighting the importance of strong governance and foreign investment in driving economic and social progress. Conversely, foreign aid negatively affects both indicators, reinforcing concerns about aid dependency and weakened domestic productivity and healthcare systems. Political stability, inflation, and urbanization exhibit limited long-run effects, though urbanization negatively impacts both outcomes in the short run due to infrastructure constraints and healthcare pressures. These results emphasize the need for institutional reforms, investment-friendly policies, and reduced aid dependency. The study recommends policies that enhance governance, attract targeted FDI, improve urban planning, and strengthen long-term economic and social resilience in Somalia.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2513486Economic well-beinginstitutional qualityforeign aidforeign direct investment (FDI)urbanizationARDL model |
| spellingShingle | Abdikadir Ahmed Mohamed Saido Nur Mohamed Ikran Mohamed Weyrah Maryan Daud Isse Ismahan Abdi Husein Determinants of economic well-being and human development in Somalia: a dual analysis of GDP per capita and life expectancy Cogent Economics & Finance Economic well-being institutional quality foreign aid foreign direct investment (FDI) urbanization ARDL model |
| title | Determinants of economic well-being and human development in Somalia: a dual analysis of GDP per capita and life expectancy |
| title_full | Determinants of economic well-being and human development in Somalia: a dual analysis of GDP per capita and life expectancy |
| title_fullStr | Determinants of economic well-being and human development in Somalia: a dual analysis of GDP per capita and life expectancy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Determinants of economic well-being and human development in Somalia: a dual analysis of GDP per capita and life expectancy |
| title_short | Determinants of economic well-being and human development in Somalia: a dual analysis of GDP per capita and life expectancy |
| title_sort | determinants of economic well being and human development in somalia a dual analysis of gdp per capita and life expectancy |
| topic | Economic well-being institutional quality foreign aid foreign direct investment (FDI) urbanization ARDL model |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2513486 |
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