A Hybrid Machine Learning Framework for Soccer Match Outcome Prediction: Incorporating Bivariate Poisson Distribution
The 2022 FIFA World Cup final attracted 1.5 billion viewers, while billions of dollars are wagered on soccer matches every year. The increasing demand for accurate predictions, both for academic research and betting purposes, has driven the development of advanced forecasting models. This study expl...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
EDP Sciences
2025-01-01
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| Series: | ITM Web of Conferences |
| Online Access: | https://www.itm-conferences.org/articles/itmconf/pdf/2025/01/itmconf_dai2024_03020.pdf |
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| Summary: | The 2022 FIFA World Cup final attracted 1.5 billion viewers, while billions of dollars are wagered on soccer matches every year. The increasing demand for accurate predictions, both for academic research and betting purposes, has driven the development of advanced forecasting models. This study explores the application of mathematical and machine learning models to predict results of soccer matches, with the dual aim of academic advancement and profitable betting. The author utilizes a comprehensive dataset from top European leagues (2014-2022) and employ models including Bivariate Poisson Distribution, Naive Bayes, Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, Random Forests, and Gradient Boosting. The paper’s feature engineering combines historical match statistics, FIFA ratings, and betting odds. While Random Forests achieved the highest accuracy (56.25%), predicting draws remains challenging. The study highlights the potential for improved prediction systems and suggests future research in advanced draw prediction techniques and profitability analysis, the paper provides research directions for researchers in related fields. |
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| ISSN: | 2271-2097 |