Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania
Under-five mortality is a burden on health and economic systems in developing countries. This study used under-five mortality rate (U5MR) data for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict trends of under-five mortality over the period of 2021 to 2051. Using a Bayesian state space model, it is found tha...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Franklin Open |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186325000118 |
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| author | Mohamed K. Mwanga Silas S. Mirau Jean M. Tchuenche Isambi S. Mbalawata |
| author_facet | Mohamed K. Mwanga Silas S. Mirau Jean M. Tchuenche Isambi S. Mbalawata |
| author_sort | Mohamed K. Mwanga |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Under-five mortality is a burden on health and economic systems in developing countries. This study used under-five mortality rate (U5MR) data for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict trends of under-five mortality over the period of 2021 to 2051. Using a Bayesian state space model, it is found that the model is stable in forecasting. Results show that under-five mortality will continue to decline from 48.9 in 2020 to 32.9 in 2030, a decrease of 32.7%. But despite this decrease, Tanzania will likely not meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for under-five mortality by 2030. Additional efforts by the government through evidence-based interventions should be undertaken to improve child survival by expanding access to health care, especially in rural areas, taking into account local context. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3647eade84394fac9f761558895a2961 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2773-1863 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Franklin Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-3647eade84394fac9f761558895a29612025-01-27T04:22:43ZengElsevierFranklin Open2773-18632025-03-0110100221Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for TanzaniaMohamed K. Mwanga0Silas S. Mirau1Jean M. Tchuenche2Isambi S. Mbalawata3School of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania; Institute of Accountancy Arusha, P.O. Box 2798, Arusha, Tanzania; Corresponding author at: School of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania.School of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, TanzaniaSchool of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, TanzaniaAfrican Institute for Mathematical Sciences; Research and Innovation Centre, Rue KG590 ST, Kigali, RwandaUnder-five mortality is a burden on health and economic systems in developing countries. This study used under-five mortality rate (U5MR) data for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict trends of under-five mortality over the period of 2021 to 2051. Using a Bayesian state space model, it is found that the model is stable in forecasting. Results show that under-five mortality will continue to decline from 48.9 in 2020 to 32.9 in 2030, a decrease of 32.7%. But despite this decrease, Tanzania will likely not meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for under-five mortality by 2030. Additional efforts by the government through evidence-based interventions should be undertaken to improve child survival by expanding access to health care, especially in rural areas, taking into account local context.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186325000118Under-five mortalityState space modelBayesianTanzania |
| spellingShingle | Mohamed K. Mwanga Silas S. Mirau Jean M. Tchuenche Isambi S. Mbalawata Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania Franklin Open Under-five mortality State space model Bayesian Tanzania |
| title | Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania |
| title_full | Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania |
| title_fullStr | Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania |
| title_short | Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania |
| title_sort | bayesian prediction of under five mortality rates for tanzania |
| topic | Under-five mortality State space model Bayesian Tanzania |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186325000118 |
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