Bayesian prediction of under-five mortality rates for Tanzania
Under-five mortality is a burden on health and economic systems in developing countries. This study used under-five mortality rate (U5MR) data for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict trends of under-five mortality over the period of 2021 to 2051. Using a Bayesian state space model, it is found tha...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Franklin Open |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186325000118 |
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| Summary: | Under-five mortality is a burden on health and economic systems in developing countries. This study used under-five mortality rate (U5MR) data for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict trends of under-five mortality over the period of 2021 to 2051. Using a Bayesian state space model, it is found that the model is stable in forecasting. Results show that under-five mortality will continue to decline from 48.9 in 2020 to 32.9 in 2030, a decrease of 32.7%. But despite this decrease, Tanzania will likely not meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for under-five mortality by 2030. Additional efforts by the government through evidence-based interventions should be undertaken to improve child survival by expanding access to health care, especially in rural areas, taking into account local context. |
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| ISSN: | 2773-1863 |