Predicting Freshman Recruitment Rates: A Comparative Analysis of Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Universities in South Korea

South Korea’s declining school-age population has intensified competition among universities, particularly in freshman recruitment, with non-metropolitan institutions facing disproportionate challenges. This study investigates regional disparities in recruitment rates by applying a range...

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Main Authors: Hyung Jong Na, Ha-Young Shin, Yongsun Cho
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IEEE 2025-01-01
Series:IEEE Access
Subjects:
Online Access:https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11015969/
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author Hyung Jong Na
Ha-Young Shin
Yongsun Cho
author_facet Hyung Jong Na
Ha-Young Shin
Yongsun Cho
author_sort Hyung Jong Na
collection DOAJ
description South Korea’s declining school-age population has intensified competition among universities, particularly in freshman recruitment, with non-metropolitan institutions facing disproportionate challenges. This study investigates regional disparities in recruitment rates by applying a range of statistical and deep learning models—including Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Autoencoders, and Transformer architectures—to predict freshman enrollment outcomes. These models integrate conventional institutional indicators such as scholarship amounts, graduate employment rates, and internationalization metrics, alongside newly emphasized variables like professors’ research performance. Findings demonstrate that including faculty research data significantly enhances model accuracy and predictive power, with Transformer-based models consistently outperforming others. The results underscore the methodological advantage of AI-driven modeling in educational analytics and offer strategic insights for policymakers: strengthening academic research capacity, especially in non-metropolitan universities, may serve as a vital policy lever for improving regional recruitment balance and sustaining higher education competitiveness.
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spelling doaj-art-3640d4fa8f6e41cbacc17d9184b658b12025-08-20T03:41:50ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362025-01-011313869913871710.1109/ACCESS.2025.357414011015969Predicting Freshman Recruitment Rates: A Comparative Analysis of Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Universities in South KoreaHyung Jong Na0https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7259-4840Ha-Young Shin1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4777-4946Yongsun Cho2https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9079-7802Department of Accounting and Taxation, Semyung University, Jecheon, South KoreaCollege of General Education, Semyung University, Jecheon, South KoreaARETE College of Liberal Arts, Dongduk Women’s University, Seoul, South KoreaSouth Korea’s declining school-age population has intensified competition among universities, particularly in freshman recruitment, with non-metropolitan institutions facing disproportionate challenges. This study investigates regional disparities in recruitment rates by applying a range of statistical and deep learning models—including Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Autoencoders, and Transformer architectures—to predict freshman enrollment outcomes. These models integrate conventional institutional indicators such as scholarship amounts, graduate employment rates, and internationalization metrics, alongside newly emphasized variables like professors’ research performance. Findings demonstrate that including faculty research data significantly enhances model accuracy and predictive power, with Transformer-based models consistently outperforming others. The results underscore the methodological advantage of AI-driven modeling in educational analytics and offer strategic insights for policymakers: strengthening academic research capacity, especially in non-metropolitan universities, may serve as a vital policy lever for improving regional recruitment balance and sustaining higher education competitiveness.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11015969/Comparative analysisfreshman recruitment rate forecastingpredictive modelingstatistical methods in higher education studies
spellingShingle Hyung Jong Na
Ha-Young Shin
Yongsun Cho
Predicting Freshman Recruitment Rates: A Comparative Analysis of Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Universities in South Korea
IEEE Access
Comparative analysis
freshman recruitment rate forecasting
predictive modeling
statistical methods in higher education studies
title Predicting Freshman Recruitment Rates: A Comparative Analysis of Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Universities in South Korea
title_full Predicting Freshman Recruitment Rates: A Comparative Analysis of Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Universities in South Korea
title_fullStr Predicting Freshman Recruitment Rates: A Comparative Analysis of Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Universities in South Korea
title_full_unstemmed Predicting Freshman Recruitment Rates: A Comparative Analysis of Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Universities in South Korea
title_short Predicting Freshman Recruitment Rates: A Comparative Analysis of Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Universities in South Korea
title_sort predicting freshman recruitment rates a comparative analysis of metropolitan and non metropolitan universities in south korea
topic Comparative analysis
freshman recruitment rate forecasting
predictive modeling
statistical methods in higher education studies
url https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11015969/
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AT hayoungshin predictingfreshmanrecruitmentratesacomparativeanalysisofmetropolitanandnonmetropolitanuniversitiesinsouthkorea
AT yongsuncho predictingfreshmanrecruitmentratesacomparativeanalysisofmetropolitanandnonmetropolitanuniversitiesinsouthkorea