An analytical approach to modeling conjunctival viral disease using fuzzy logic and time-delay dynamics
Conjunctivitis, commonly known as pink eye, is the inflammation of the conjunctiva, often accompanied by redness, itchiness, and the discharge of thick white or greyish pus. Highly contagious in settings involving close contact, it poses significant public health and economic concerns. This study pr...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-12-01
|
| Series: | Healthcare Analytics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772442525000231 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850219123435372544 |
|---|---|
| author | Muhammad Tashfeen Hothefa Shaker Jassim Fazal Dayan Muhammad Azizur Rehman Alwahab Dhulfiqar Zoltán Husam A. Neamah |
| author_facet | Muhammad Tashfeen Hothefa Shaker Jassim Fazal Dayan Muhammad Azizur Rehman Alwahab Dhulfiqar Zoltán Husam A. Neamah |
| author_sort | Muhammad Tashfeen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Conjunctivitis, commonly known as pink eye, is the inflammation of the conjunctiva, often accompanied by redness, itchiness, and the discharge of thick white or greyish pus. Highly contagious in settings involving close contact, it poses significant public health and economic concerns. This study proposes a fuzzy mathematical modeling framework to investigate Conjunctival Viral Disease (CVD) transmission dynamics, with particular attention to the roles of asymptomatic carriers and environmental influences. Unlike conventional models that rely solely on deterministic parameters, the incorporation of fuzzy theory allows for representing uncertainties and variabilities inherent in real-world disease transmission. The model further incorporates time-delay terms to account for incubation periods and other latent effects, enhancing the accuracy of system dynamics. This fuzzy framework performs key analyses, including identifying equilibrium points, computation of the basic reproduction number, sensitivity analysis, and assessment of local and global stability. Numerical solutions are obtained using the Forward Euler and Nonstandard Finite Difference (NSFD) methods. The NSFD scheme is rigorously examined for convergence, non-negativity, boundedness, and consistency properties. Simulation results confirm that the NSFD approach maintains the qualitative features of the model even under larger time steps. Overall, the study underscores the importance of integrating fuzzy logic and time delays in epidemic modeling and presents a robust methodological approach for understanding and managing the spread of infectious diseases in uncertain and dynamic environments. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3637b4b7c3e04827ba11ce89bdbcad39 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2772-4425 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Healthcare Analytics |
| spelling | doaj-art-3637b4b7c3e04827ba11ce89bdbcad392025-08-20T02:07:30ZengElsevierHealthcare Analytics2772-44252025-12-01810040410.1016/j.health.2025.100404An analytical approach to modeling conjunctival viral disease using fuzzy logic and time-delay dynamicsMuhammad Tashfeen0Hothefa Shaker Jassim1Fazal Dayan2Muhammad Azizur Rehman3Alwahab Dhulfiqar Zoltán4Husam A. Neamah5Department of Mathematics, School of Science, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, 54000, PakistanModern College of Business and Science, Muscat, OmanDepartment of Mathematics, School of Science, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, 54000, PakistanDepartment of Mathematics, School of Science, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, 54000, PakistanDepartment of Programming Languages and Compilers, Faculty of Informatics, Eötvös Loránd University, 1/C Pázmány Péter St., Budapest, H-1117, HungaryDepartment of Electrical Engineering and Mechatronics, Faculty of Engineering, University of Debrecen, Òtemetö Utca 2-4, 4028, Debrecen, Hungary; Technical Engineering College, Al-Ayen University, Thi-Qar 64001, Iraq; College of Engineering, National University of Science and Technology, Dhi Qar 64001, Iraq; Department of Business Management, Al-imam University College, Balad, Iraq; Corresponding author. Department of Electrical Engineering and Mechatronics, Faculty of Engineering, University of Debrecen, Òtemetö Utca 2-4, 4028, Debrecen, Hungary.Conjunctivitis, commonly known as pink eye, is the inflammation of the conjunctiva, often accompanied by redness, itchiness, and the discharge of thick white or greyish pus. Highly contagious in settings involving close contact, it poses significant public health and economic concerns. This study proposes a fuzzy mathematical modeling framework to investigate Conjunctival Viral Disease (CVD) transmission dynamics, with particular attention to the roles of asymptomatic carriers and environmental influences. Unlike conventional models that rely solely on deterministic parameters, the incorporation of fuzzy theory allows for representing uncertainties and variabilities inherent in real-world disease transmission. The model further incorporates time-delay terms to account for incubation periods and other latent effects, enhancing the accuracy of system dynamics. This fuzzy framework performs key analyses, including identifying equilibrium points, computation of the basic reproduction number, sensitivity analysis, and assessment of local and global stability. Numerical solutions are obtained using the Forward Euler and Nonstandard Finite Difference (NSFD) methods. The NSFD scheme is rigorously examined for convergence, non-negativity, boundedness, and consistency properties. Simulation results confirm that the NSFD approach maintains the qualitative features of the model even under larger time steps. Overall, the study underscores the importance of integrating fuzzy logic and time delays in epidemic modeling and presents a robust methodological approach for understanding and managing the spread of infectious diseases in uncertain and dynamic environments.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772442525000231Fuzzy-based disease modelingNumerical analysisDisease transmission indexSensitivity evaluationCommunity healthInfectious disease management |
| spellingShingle | Muhammad Tashfeen Hothefa Shaker Jassim Fazal Dayan Muhammad Azizur Rehman Alwahab Dhulfiqar Zoltán Husam A. Neamah An analytical approach to modeling conjunctival viral disease using fuzzy logic and time-delay dynamics Healthcare Analytics Fuzzy-based disease modeling Numerical analysis Disease transmission index Sensitivity evaluation Community health Infectious disease management |
| title | An analytical approach to modeling conjunctival viral disease using fuzzy logic and time-delay dynamics |
| title_full | An analytical approach to modeling conjunctival viral disease using fuzzy logic and time-delay dynamics |
| title_fullStr | An analytical approach to modeling conjunctival viral disease using fuzzy logic and time-delay dynamics |
| title_full_unstemmed | An analytical approach to modeling conjunctival viral disease using fuzzy logic and time-delay dynamics |
| title_short | An analytical approach to modeling conjunctival viral disease using fuzzy logic and time-delay dynamics |
| title_sort | analytical approach to modeling conjunctival viral disease using fuzzy logic and time delay dynamics |
| topic | Fuzzy-based disease modeling Numerical analysis Disease transmission index Sensitivity evaluation Community health Infectious disease management |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772442525000231 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT muhammadtashfeen ananalyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT hothefashakerjassim ananalyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT fazaldayan ananalyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT muhammadazizurrehman ananalyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT alwahabdhulfiqarzoltan ananalyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT husamaneamah ananalyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT muhammadtashfeen analyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT hothefashakerjassim analyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT fazaldayan analyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT muhammadazizurrehman analyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT alwahabdhulfiqarzoltan analyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics AT husamaneamah analyticalapproachtomodelingconjunctivalviraldiseaseusingfuzzylogicandtimedelaydynamics |