Forecasting the Number of Passengers on Hungarian Railway Routes Using a Similarity and Fuzzy Arithmetic-Based Inference Method

In this study, we present a similarity and fuzzy arithmetic-based fuzzy inference method and show how effectively it can be used to forecast the number of passengers on a railway route. We introduce a novel fuzzy similarity measure that is derived from the so-called epsilon function, which may be vi...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Marcell Fetter, Tamás Jónás
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-04-01
Series:Mathematics
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/8/1221
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Summary:In this study, we present a similarity and fuzzy arithmetic-based fuzzy inference method and show how effectively it can be used to forecast the number of passengers on a railway route. We introduce a novel fuzzy similarity measure that is derived from the so-called epsilon function, which may be viewed as an alternative to the exponential function. After demonstrating the most important properties of the new similarity measure, we construct a fuzzy inference method that is founded on arithmetic operations over triangular fuzzy numbers. This inference method utilizes the proposed similarity measure to derive weight values for the above-mentioned arithmetic operations. The motivation behind the proposed method is twofold. On the one hand, we aim to construct a method that is simple and easy to implement. On the other hand, we intend to ensure that this method meets the practical requirements for rail passenger forecasts. Using a real-life case study, we demonstrate how well our method can predict the expected number of passengers on a new railway route based on characteristics of this relation. With respect to the studied case, we may conclude that although the similarity and fuzzy arithmetic-based fuzzy inference system has only two adjustable parameters, it may be regarded as a viable alternative to Sugeno-type fuzzy inference systems with a much greater number of adjustable parameters tuned by various optimization techniques.
ISSN:2227-7390