A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method
Dock-less bicycle-sharing programs have been widely accepted as an efficient mode to benefit health and reduce congestions. And modeling and prediction has always been a core proposition in the field of transportation. Most of the existing demand prediction models for shared bikes take regions as re...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/4959504 |
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| _version_ | 1849305901478969344 |
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| author | Zhuoran Yu Yimeng Duan Shen Zhang Xin Liu Kui Li |
| author_facet | Zhuoran Yu Yimeng Duan Shen Zhang Xin Liu Kui Li |
| author_sort | Zhuoran Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Dock-less bicycle-sharing programs have been widely accepted as an efficient mode to benefit health and reduce congestions. And modeling and prediction has always been a core proposition in the field of transportation. Most of the existing demand prediction models for shared bikes take regions as research objects; therefore, a POI-based method can be a beneficial complement to existing research, including zone-level, OD-level, and station-level techniques. Point of interest (POI) is the location description of spatial entities, which can reflect the cycling route characteristics for both commuting and noncommuting trips to a certain extent, and is also the main generating point and attraction point of shared-bike travel flow. In this study, we make an effort to model a POI-level cycling demand with a Bayesian hierarchical method. The proposed model combines the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and random partial differential equation (SPDE) to cope with the huge computation in the modeling process. In particular, we have adopted the dock-less bicycle-sharing rental records of Mobike as a case study to validate our method; the study area was one of the fastest growing urban districts in Shanghai in August 2016. The operation results show that the method can help better understand, measure, and characterize spatiotemporal patterns of bike-share ridership at the POI level and quantify the impact of the spatiotemporal effect on bicycle-sharing use. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3543f03f1cea4e3f8991e108e7f2f0c0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0197-6729 2042-3195 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-3543f03f1cea4e3f8991e108e7f2f0c02025-08-20T03:55:16ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952021-01-01202110.1155/2021/49595044959504A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA MethodZhuoran Yu0Yimeng Duan1Shen Zhang2Xin Liu3Kui Li4Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, ChinaTransportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, ChinaTransportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, ChinaTransportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, ChinaTransportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, ChinaDock-less bicycle-sharing programs have been widely accepted as an efficient mode to benefit health and reduce congestions. And modeling and prediction has always been a core proposition in the field of transportation. Most of the existing demand prediction models for shared bikes take regions as research objects; therefore, a POI-based method can be a beneficial complement to existing research, including zone-level, OD-level, and station-level techniques. Point of interest (POI) is the location description of spatial entities, which can reflect the cycling route characteristics for both commuting and noncommuting trips to a certain extent, and is also the main generating point and attraction point of shared-bike travel flow. In this study, we make an effort to model a POI-level cycling demand with a Bayesian hierarchical method. The proposed model combines the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and random partial differential equation (SPDE) to cope with the huge computation in the modeling process. In particular, we have adopted the dock-less bicycle-sharing rental records of Mobike as a case study to validate our method; the study area was one of the fastest growing urban districts in Shanghai in August 2016. The operation results show that the method can help better understand, measure, and characterize spatiotemporal patterns of bike-share ridership at the POI level and quantify the impact of the spatiotemporal effect on bicycle-sharing use.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/4959504 |
| spellingShingle | Zhuoran Yu Yimeng Duan Shen Zhang Xin Liu Kui Li A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| title | A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method |
| title_full | A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method |
| title_fullStr | A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method |
| title_short | A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal prediction model for regional scheduling of shared bicycles based on the inla method |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/4959504 |
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