Uneven shifts in flood and drought flows in a Brazilian water supply catchmentHavard Dataverse
Study Region:: Passaúna catchment, Paraná State, Brazil. Study Focus:: This study assessed the impacts of projected climate change on streamflow (Q) regimes and dynamics in the study area, a key drinking water source for the Curitiba Metropolitan Region (3.7 million people). Dry and wet Q regimes we...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-08-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825003234 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | Study Region:: Passaúna catchment, Paraná State, Brazil. Study Focus:: This study assessed the impacts of projected climate change on streamflow (Q) regimes and dynamics in the study area, a key drinking water source for the Curitiba Metropolitan Region (3.7 million people). Dry and wet Q regimes were analyzed using 3-, 6-, and 12-month accumulation periods through a non-parametric approach. Changes in Q extremes — drought and flood flows — were evaluated using a frequency-based method. Daily Q was simulated by a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and the lumped conceptual Hydrological Model 2 (HyMod2), both forced with bias-corrected CMIP6 historical (1980–2013) and future (2015–2100) climate scenarios. New Hydrological Insights:: Agreement was observed between hydrological models (KGE = 0.83; NSE = 0.79), though both showed limitations in simulating extreme flows. Projections indicate no statistically significant changes in drought flow duration and severity across future scenarios. In contrast, wet regimes are expected to intensify, with durations increasing by up to two months in the mid and far future under SSP5-8.5. Flood flows show a consistent positive trend, with the 100-year event projected to increase by 26% under SSP2-4.5 and 52% under SSP5-8.5. Findings suggest a shift toward wetter conditions and more frequent floods, highlighting the importance of considering adaptive reservoir operation and resilient infrastructure planning in the Passaúna catchment. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 2214-5818 |