Neck pain burden in China and G20 countries: an analysis of 1990–2021 with a 30-year forecast for China
BackgroundNeck pain (NP) represents a significant global public health challenge and is the fourth leading cause of disability in China and among G20 nations. Given the accelerating trends of population ageing and shifts in contemporary lifestyles, the burden of NP is likely to increase, necessitati...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-07-01
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| author | Huale Li Huale Li Zhichun Chang Zhichun Chang Ting Qin Ting Qin Yanfang Li Yanfang Li Mingren Hu Xinjing Yang Jun Li Jun Li Yufeng Xie Yufeng Xie |
| author_facet | Huale Li Huale Li Zhichun Chang Zhichun Chang Ting Qin Ting Qin Yanfang Li Yanfang Li Mingren Hu Xinjing Yang Jun Li Jun Li Yufeng Xie Yufeng Xie |
| author_sort | Huale Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundNeck pain (NP) represents a significant global public health challenge and is the fourth leading cause of disability in China and among G20 nations. Given the accelerating trends of population ageing and shifts in contemporary lifestyles, the burden of NP is likely to increase, necessitating urgent, comprehensive analysis and the formulation of effective interventions.Objectives and methodsThis study utilizes the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to extract data concerning the incidence, prevalence, DALY rate, ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, and other relevant metrics of noncommunicable diseases in China and G20 countries from 1990 to 2021. The analysis is conducted via the R programming language, with joinpoint regression employed to calculate the APC and AAPC. Additionally, an ARIMA model is utilized to forecast the incidence rate in China over the next 30 years.ResultsIn 2021, China reported 10.29 million (95% UI: 8.06–13.03 million) incident cases and 48.37 million (37.66–60.06 million) prevalent cases of NP. The ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR were estimated at 567 (448–699) per 100,000 population, 2,549 (2,007–3,141) per 100,000 population, and 254 (166–357) per 100,000 population, respectively. Among G20 countries, NP affected 28.71 million (22.50–35.54 million) incident cases and 137.66 million (109.04–169.31 million) prevalent cases, with corresponding ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR values of 507 (398–617) per 100,000 population, 2,362 (1,856–2,892) per 100,000 population, and 234 (156–334) per 100,000 population, respectively. The analysis revealed no statistically significant changes in the AAPCs of the ASIR and ASPR for either China or the G20 countries from 19,902,021. Notably, women consistently presented higher ASIR and ASPR values than men did across all the studied populations. Projection models indicate that by 2051, NP incidence rates will remain stable for China and men, whereas women’s rates are anticipated to significantly decline.ConclusionThe global community must prioritize the burden of NP and promote precision diagnosis and prevention. Policies should balance technological innovation with social support, strengthen legislative protection for high-risk occupations and harsh climates, implement personalized interventions, and reduce the burden at its root. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-347a9ce869604811bbcf767a1ef85430 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-347a9ce869604811bbcf767a1ef854302025-08-20T03:51:56ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652025-07-011310.3389/fpubh.2025.15413531541353Neck pain burden in China and G20 countries: an analysis of 1990–2021 with a 30-year forecast for ChinaHuale Li0Huale Li1Zhichun Chang2Zhichun Chang3Ting Qin4Ting Qin5Yanfang Li6Yanfang Li7Mingren Hu8Xinjing Yang9Jun Li10Jun Li11Yufeng Xie12Yufeng Xie13Shenzhen Hospital (Futian) of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaThe Sixth Clinical Medical College, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaShenzhen Hospital (Futian) of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaThe Sixth Clinical Medical College, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaShenzhen Hospital (Futian) of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaThe Sixth Clinical Medical College, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaShenzhen Hospital (Futian) of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaThe Sixth Clinical Medical College, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaShenzhen Hospital (Futian) of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaShenzhen Hospital (Futian) of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaShenzhen Hospital (Futian) of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaThe Sixth Clinical Medical College, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaShenzhen Hospital (Futian) of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Shenzhen, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Quality Research in Chinese Medicines, Faculty of Chinese Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology, Cotai, Macao SAR, ChinaBackgroundNeck pain (NP) represents a significant global public health challenge and is the fourth leading cause of disability in China and among G20 nations. Given the accelerating trends of population ageing and shifts in contemporary lifestyles, the burden of NP is likely to increase, necessitating urgent, comprehensive analysis and the formulation of effective interventions.Objectives and methodsThis study utilizes the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to extract data concerning the incidence, prevalence, DALY rate, ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, and other relevant metrics of noncommunicable diseases in China and G20 countries from 1990 to 2021. The analysis is conducted via the R programming language, with joinpoint regression employed to calculate the APC and AAPC. Additionally, an ARIMA model is utilized to forecast the incidence rate in China over the next 30 years.ResultsIn 2021, China reported 10.29 million (95% UI: 8.06–13.03 million) incident cases and 48.37 million (37.66–60.06 million) prevalent cases of NP. The ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR were estimated at 567 (448–699) per 100,000 population, 2,549 (2,007–3,141) per 100,000 population, and 254 (166–357) per 100,000 population, respectively. Among G20 countries, NP affected 28.71 million (22.50–35.54 million) incident cases and 137.66 million (109.04–169.31 million) prevalent cases, with corresponding ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR values of 507 (398–617) per 100,000 population, 2,362 (1,856–2,892) per 100,000 population, and 234 (156–334) per 100,000 population, respectively. The analysis revealed no statistically significant changes in the AAPCs of the ASIR and ASPR for either China or the G20 countries from 19,902,021. Notably, women consistently presented higher ASIR and ASPR values than men did across all the studied populations. Projection models indicate that by 2051, NP incidence rates will remain stable for China and men, whereas women’s rates are anticipated to significantly decline.ConclusionThe global community must prioritize the burden of NP and promote precision diagnosis and prevention. Policies should balance technological innovation with social support, strengthen legislative protection for high-risk occupations and harsh climates, implement personalized interventions, and reduce the burden at its root.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1541353/fullneck painincidenceprevalencedisability-adjusted life yearsjoinpoint regression analysis |
| spellingShingle | Huale Li Huale Li Zhichun Chang Zhichun Chang Ting Qin Ting Qin Yanfang Li Yanfang Li Mingren Hu Xinjing Yang Jun Li Jun Li Yufeng Xie Yufeng Xie Neck pain burden in China and G20 countries: an analysis of 1990–2021 with a 30-year forecast for China Frontiers in Public Health neck pain incidence prevalence disability-adjusted life years joinpoint regression analysis |
| title | Neck pain burden in China and G20 countries: an analysis of 1990–2021 with a 30-year forecast for China |
| title_full | Neck pain burden in China and G20 countries: an analysis of 1990–2021 with a 30-year forecast for China |
| title_fullStr | Neck pain burden in China and G20 countries: an analysis of 1990–2021 with a 30-year forecast for China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Neck pain burden in China and G20 countries: an analysis of 1990–2021 with a 30-year forecast for China |
| title_short | Neck pain burden in China and G20 countries: an analysis of 1990–2021 with a 30-year forecast for China |
| title_sort | neck pain burden in china and g20 countries an analysis of 1990 2021 with a 30 year forecast for china |
| topic | neck pain incidence prevalence disability-adjusted life years joinpoint regression analysis |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1541353/full |
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