Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of blue–green–grey-space carbon stocks in Henan Province, China

Changes in blue–green–grey spaces use greatly influenced the carbon-storage capabilities of ecosystems, which is crucial for maintaining the carbon balance of regional ecosystems.By combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model with the Patch-generating Land...

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Main Authors: Kai Zhou, Xinyu Wei, Yanjie Wang, Jinhui Wang, Zhifang Wang, Yichuan Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-03-01
Series:Frontiers in Environmental Science
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1545455/full
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author Kai Zhou
Kai Zhou
Xinyu Wei
Yanjie Wang
Jinhui Wang
Zhifang Wang
Zhifang Wang
Yichuan Zhang
Yichuan Zhang
author_facet Kai Zhou
Kai Zhou
Xinyu Wei
Yanjie Wang
Jinhui Wang
Zhifang Wang
Zhifang Wang
Yichuan Zhang
Yichuan Zhang
author_sort Kai Zhou
collection DOAJ
description Changes in blue–green–grey spaces use greatly influenced the carbon-storage capabilities of ecosystems, which is crucial for maintaining the carbon balance of regional ecosystems.By combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model with the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, this study evaluates the spatiotemporal evolution of blue–green–grey spatial carbon stocks in Henan Province, China, and predicts the relationship between blue–green–grey spatial changes and carbon stocks under four future scenarios. This total amount of carbon stocks decreased by 39.75 × 106 Mg from 2000 to 2020. The pattern of carbon-storage spatial distribution is characterised by ‘higher in the west and lower in the east’. The urbanisation process in Henan Province has been accelerating, and the area of grey space has increased rapidly, resulting in a substantial decline in carbon storage. Grey-space development will be severely constrained under the ecological protection (EP) scenario by 2050, where the grey-space area will decrease by 33.15% compared to that in 2020. Under the cultivated-land protection (CLP) scenario, the growth of the green space will increase considerably and carbon storage will reach the highest level. This paper offers a solid scientific foundation for promoting low-carbon and green development as well as optimising the spatial arrangement of Henan Province, China.
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issn 2296-665X
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publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
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series Frontiers in Environmental Science
spelling doaj-art-3448697942b846f9ab660bee3cef97bd2025-08-20T02:57:00ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2025-03-011310.3389/fenvs.2025.15454551545455Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of blue–green–grey-space carbon stocks in Henan Province, ChinaKai Zhou0Kai Zhou1Xinyu Wei2Yanjie Wang3Jinhui Wang4Zhifang Wang5Zhifang Wang6Yichuan Zhang7Yichuan Zhang8School of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Henan Institute of Science and Technology, Xinxiang, ChinaLandscape Ecological Engineering Technology Research Center of Xinxiang, Xinxiang, ChinaSchool of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Henan Institute of Science and Technology, Xinxiang, ChinaSchool of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Henan Institute of Science and Technology, Xinxiang, ChinaSchool of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Henan Institute of Science and Technology, Xinxiang, ChinaSchool of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Henan Institute of Science and Technology, Xinxiang, ChinaLandscape Ecological Engineering Technology Research Center of Xinxiang, Xinxiang, ChinaSchool of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Henan Institute of Science and Technology, Xinxiang, ChinaLandscape Ecological Engineering Technology Research Center of Xinxiang, Xinxiang, ChinaChanges in blue–green–grey spaces use greatly influenced the carbon-storage capabilities of ecosystems, which is crucial for maintaining the carbon balance of regional ecosystems.By combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model with the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, this study evaluates the spatiotemporal evolution of blue–green–grey spatial carbon stocks in Henan Province, China, and predicts the relationship between blue–green–grey spatial changes and carbon stocks under four future scenarios. This total amount of carbon stocks decreased by 39.75 × 106 Mg from 2000 to 2020. The pattern of carbon-storage spatial distribution is characterised by ‘higher in the west and lower in the east’. The urbanisation process in Henan Province has been accelerating, and the area of grey space has increased rapidly, resulting in a substantial decline in carbon storage. Grey-space development will be severely constrained under the ecological protection (EP) scenario by 2050, where the grey-space area will decrease by 33.15% compared to that in 2020. Under the cultivated-land protection (CLP) scenario, the growth of the green space will increase considerably and carbon storage will reach the highest level. This paper offers a solid scientific foundation for promoting low-carbon and green development as well as optimising the spatial arrangement of Henan Province, China.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1545455/fullblue-green-grey spacescarbon storageInVEST modelPLUS modelHenan
spellingShingle Kai Zhou
Kai Zhou
Xinyu Wei
Yanjie Wang
Jinhui Wang
Zhifang Wang
Zhifang Wang
Yichuan Zhang
Yichuan Zhang
Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of blue–green–grey-space carbon stocks in Henan Province, China
Frontiers in Environmental Science
blue-green-grey spaces
carbon storage
InVEST model
PLUS model
Henan
title Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of blue–green–grey-space carbon stocks in Henan Province, China
title_full Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of blue–green–grey-space carbon stocks in Henan Province, China
title_fullStr Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of blue–green–grey-space carbon stocks in Henan Province, China
title_full_unstemmed Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of blue–green–grey-space carbon stocks in Henan Province, China
title_short Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of blue–green–grey-space carbon stocks in Henan Province, China
title_sort spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of blue green grey space carbon stocks in henan province china
topic blue-green-grey spaces
carbon storage
InVEST model
PLUS model
Henan
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1545455/full
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