“Revealing the future”: an ARIMA model analysis for predicting remittance inflows
Purpose – The purpose of this research is to develop a predictive model that can estimate the volume of remittances channeled toward Yemen’s economic reconstruction efforts. Design/methodology/approach – This study utilized a time-series dataset encompassing remittance inflows into Yemen’s economy f...
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Emerald Publishing
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Journal of Business and Socio-Economic Development |
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| Online Access: | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JBSED-07-2023-0055/full/pdf |
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| author | Imran Khan Darshita Fulara Gunwant |
| author_facet | Imran Khan Darshita Fulara Gunwant |
| author_sort | Imran Khan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Purpose – The purpose of this research is to develop a predictive model that can estimate the volume of remittances channeled toward Yemen’s economic reconstruction efforts. Design/methodology/approach – This study utilized a time-series dataset encompassing remittance inflows into Yemen’s economy from 1990 to 2022. The Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology was employed to forecast remittance inflows for the period 2023 to 2030. Findings – The study’s findings indicate a downward trajectory in remittance inflows over the next eight years, with projections suggesting a potential decline to 4.122% of Yemen’s gross domestic product by the end of 2030. This significant decrease in remittance inflows highlights the immediate need for concrete steps from economic policymakers to curb the potential decline in remittance inflows and its impact on Yemen’s economic recovery efforts. Originality/value – The impact of global remittance inflows on various macroeconomic and microeconomic factors has long been of interest to researchers, policymakers, and academics. Yemen has been embroiled in violent clashes over a decade, leading to a fragmentation of central authority and the formation of distinct local alliances. In such prolonged turmoil, foreign aid often falls short, providing only temporary relief for basic needs. Consequently, the importance of migrant remittances in sustaining communities affected by conflict and disasters has increased. Remittances have played a crucial role in fostering economic progress and improving social services for families transitioning from conflict to peace. Therefore, this study aims to estimate and forecast the volume of remittances flowing into Yemen, to assist in the nation’s economic reconstruction. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-344619e583ad45cca1370d4e83161d1a |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2635-1374 2635-1692 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Emerald Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Business and Socio-Economic Development |
| spelling | doaj-art-344619e583ad45cca1370d4e83161d1a2025-08-20T02:50:00ZengEmerald PublishingJournal of Business and Socio-Economic Development2635-13742635-16922025-04-015215517010.1108/JBSED-07-2023-0055“Revealing the future”: an ARIMA model analysis for predicting remittance inflowsImran Khan0Darshita Fulara Gunwant1Department of Management Studies, Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani – Dubai Campus, Dubai, United Arab EmiratesDepartment of Management Studies, Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani – Dubai Campus, Dubai, United Arab EmiratesPurpose – The purpose of this research is to develop a predictive model that can estimate the volume of remittances channeled toward Yemen’s economic reconstruction efforts. Design/methodology/approach – This study utilized a time-series dataset encompassing remittance inflows into Yemen’s economy from 1990 to 2022. The Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology was employed to forecast remittance inflows for the period 2023 to 2030. Findings – The study’s findings indicate a downward trajectory in remittance inflows over the next eight years, with projections suggesting a potential decline to 4.122% of Yemen’s gross domestic product by the end of 2030. This significant decrease in remittance inflows highlights the immediate need for concrete steps from economic policymakers to curb the potential decline in remittance inflows and its impact on Yemen’s economic recovery efforts. Originality/value – The impact of global remittance inflows on various macroeconomic and microeconomic factors has long been of interest to researchers, policymakers, and academics. Yemen has been embroiled in violent clashes over a decade, leading to a fragmentation of central authority and the formation of distinct local alliances. In such prolonged turmoil, foreign aid often falls short, providing only temporary relief for basic needs. Consequently, the importance of migrant remittances in sustaining communities affected by conflict and disasters has increased. Remittances have played a crucial role in fostering economic progress and improving social services for families transitioning from conflict to peace. Therefore, this study aims to estimate and forecast the volume of remittances flowing into Yemen, to assist in the nation’s economic reconstruction.https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JBSED-07-2023-0055/full/pdfYemenEconomic reconstructionRemittance inflowsForecastingTime-series analysis |
| spellingShingle | Imran Khan Darshita Fulara Gunwant “Revealing the future”: an ARIMA model analysis for predicting remittance inflows Journal of Business and Socio-Economic Development Yemen Economic reconstruction Remittance inflows Forecasting Time-series analysis |
| title | “Revealing the future”: an ARIMA model analysis for predicting remittance inflows |
| title_full | “Revealing the future”: an ARIMA model analysis for predicting remittance inflows |
| title_fullStr | “Revealing the future”: an ARIMA model analysis for predicting remittance inflows |
| title_full_unstemmed | “Revealing the future”: an ARIMA model analysis for predicting remittance inflows |
| title_short | “Revealing the future”: an ARIMA model analysis for predicting remittance inflows |
| title_sort | revealing the future an arima model analysis for predicting remittance inflows |
| topic | Yemen Economic reconstruction Remittance inflows Forecasting Time-series analysis |
| url | https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JBSED-07-2023-0055/full/pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT imrankhan revealingthefutureanarimamodelanalysisforpredictingremittanceinflows AT darshitafularagunwant revealingthefutureanarimamodelanalysisforpredictingremittanceinflows |