Analysis and prediction of spatiotemporal carbon storage changes in the Taihu Lake Basin in Jiangsu Province based on PLUS and InVEST model
Rapid urbanization and land-use change (LUCC) significantly impact terrestrial carbon storage, creating an urgent need to assess and mitigate these effects for sustainable development. This study employed the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Trees, Forests and People |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666719325001426 |
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| Summary: | Rapid urbanization and land-use change (LUCC) significantly impact terrestrial carbon storage, creating an urgent need to assess and mitigate these effects for sustainable development. This study employed the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) coupling model to analyze carbon storage dynamics (2000–2020) and project future trends (2030) in Taihu Lake Basin in Jiangsu province, a highly urbanized region. It aims to assess and predict spatiotemporal carbon storage changes in the Taihu Lake Basin of Jiangsu Province.thereby providing a scientific basis for regional low-carbon land-use planning under China’s ''dual carbon'' goals. Key findings include: (1) Historical Trends (2000–2020): Cropland decreased by 266,757 ha (15.1 %), while built-up land expanded by 249,166 ha (14.13 %), driven by urbanization; Net carbon storage loss reached 3.26 × 10⁶ t (12.57 % decline), concentrated in 2000-2010 (-2.86 × 10⁶ t). Post-2010, ecological policies slowed losses (-0.40 × 10⁶ t), highlighting policy effectiveness; (2) Scenario Projections (2030): Cropland Protection (CPS): Achieved a net carbon gain (0.22 × 10⁶ t) by restricting urban encroachment on cropland; Ecological Protection (EPS): Reduced losses to 0.31 × 10⁶ t via forest/grassland conservation (+5,716 ha); Economic Development (EDS): Accelerated carbon loss (0.34 × 10⁶ t) due to unchecked urban expansion; (3) Spatial Insights: Carbon losses clustered in urban cores (Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou), while gains occurred in southwestern forested areas (Moran’s I > 0.32, p < 0.01). The PLUS-InVEST integration enabled high-resolution, policy-relevant simulations, demonstrating that strategic land-use planning (e.g., CPS) can reconcile economic growth with carbon neutrality. |
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| ISSN: | 2666-7193 |