THE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG (M≥6.0) EARTHQUAKE IN THE SOUTH FERGANA SEISMIC ACTIVITY ZONE IN THE COMING YEARS
There were investigated seismic mode and stress state of the Earth’s crust in the South Fergana seismic activity zone. In the central part of the zone, there was identified an area of a long-term seismic quiescence during which no earthquakes with energy class K≥12 (M≥4.5) were recorded. Along the e...
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Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Institute of the Earth's crust
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Геодинамика и тектонофизика |
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| Online Access: | https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1632 |
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| author | R. S. Ibragimov T. L. Ibragimova M. A. Mirzaev Yu. L. Rebetsky |
| author_facet | R. S. Ibragimov T. L. Ibragimova M. A. Mirzaev Yu. L. Rebetsky |
| author_sort | R. S. Ibragimov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | There were investigated seismic mode and stress state of the Earth’s crust in the South Fergana seismic activity zone. In the central part of the zone, there was identified an area of a long-term seismic quiescence during which no earthquakes with energy class K≥12 (M≥4.5) were recorded. Along the entire length of the seismic quiescence area, there occur an activation of earthquakes of lower energy classes, as well as anomalous fluctuations of the recurrence curve slope. To localize the place of seismic activation probability, the current stress of earth’s crust in the South Fergana seismic activity zone was reconstructed according to focal earthquake mechanisms by the methods of cataclastic analysis of displacements. There were identified the areas with low values of effective confining pressure and maximum shear stresses where strong earthquakes usually occur. Taking into account the stressed state of the Earth’s crust, on the basis of the prognostic parameters of the seismic regime within the South Fergana seismic activity zone there were identified two areas in which M≥6.0 earthquakes may occur in the coming years. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-33f19f17dbe54f35a1db0337bfeeff9f |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2078-502X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Institute of the Earth's crust |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Геодинамика и тектонофизика |
| spelling | doaj-art-33f19f17dbe54f35a1db0337bfeeff9f2025-08-20T03:02:40ZengRussian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Institute of the Earth's crustГеодинамика и тектонофизика2078-502X2023-02-0114110.5800/GT-2023-14-1-0688689THE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG (M≥6.0) EARTHQUAKE IN THE SOUTH FERGANA SEISMIC ACTIVITY ZONE IN THE COMING YEARSR. S. Ibragimov0T. L. Ibragimova1M. A. Mirzaev2Yu. L. Rebetsky3Mavlyanov Institute of Seismology, Uzbekistan Academy of SciencesMavlyanov Institute of Seismology, Uzbekistan Academy of SciencesMavlyanov Institute of Seismology, Uzbekistan Academy of SciencesSchmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of SciencesThere were investigated seismic mode and stress state of the Earth’s crust in the South Fergana seismic activity zone. In the central part of the zone, there was identified an area of a long-term seismic quiescence during which no earthquakes with energy class K≥12 (M≥4.5) were recorded. Along the entire length of the seismic quiescence area, there occur an activation of earthquakes of lower energy classes, as well as anomalous fluctuations of the recurrence curve slope. To localize the place of seismic activation probability, the current stress of earth’s crust in the South Fergana seismic activity zone was reconstructed according to focal earthquake mechanisms by the methods of cataclastic analysis of displacements. There were identified the areas with low values of effective confining pressure and maximum shear stresses where strong earthquakes usually occur. Taking into account the stressed state of the Earth’s crust, on the basis of the prognostic parameters of the seismic regime within the South Fergana seismic activity zone there were identified two areas in which M≥6.0 earthquakes may occur in the coming years.https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1632seismic quiescenceseismic activationseismic gapearthquake forecastrecurrence curvestress statestress reconstruction |
| spellingShingle | R. S. Ibragimov T. L. Ibragimova M. A. Mirzaev Yu. L. Rebetsky THE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG (M≥6.0) EARTHQUAKE IN THE SOUTH FERGANA SEISMIC ACTIVITY ZONE IN THE COMING YEARS Геодинамика и тектонофизика seismic quiescence seismic activation seismic gap earthquake forecast recurrence curve stress state stress reconstruction |
| title | THE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG (M≥6.0) EARTHQUAKE IN THE SOUTH FERGANA SEISMIC ACTIVITY ZONE IN THE COMING YEARS |
| title_full | THE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG (M≥6.0) EARTHQUAKE IN THE SOUTH FERGANA SEISMIC ACTIVITY ZONE IN THE COMING YEARS |
| title_fullStr | THE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG (M≥6.0) EARTHQUAKE IN THE SOUTH FERGANA SEISMIC ACTIVITY ZONE IN THE COMING YEARS |
| title_full_unstemmed | THE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG (M≥6.0) EARTHQUAKE IN THE SOUTH FERGANA SEISMIC ACTIVITY ZONE IN THE COMING YEARS |
| title_short | THE PROBABILITY OF A STRONG (M≥6.0) EARTHQUAKE IN THE SOUTH FERGANA SEISMIC ACTIVITY ZONE IN THE COMING YEARS |
| title_sort | probability of a strong m≥6 0 earthquake in the south fergana seismic activity zone in the coming years |
| topic | seismic quiescence seismic activation seismic gap earthquake forecast recurrence curve stress state stress reconstruction |
| url | https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1632 |
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