Global Mean Sea Level Rise Inferred From Ocean Salinity and Temperature Changes

Abstract Barystatic sea level rise (SLR) caused by the addition of freshwater to the ocean from melting ice can in principle be recorded by a reduction in seawater salinity, but detection of this signal has been hindered by sparse data coverage and the small trends compared to natural variability. H...

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Main Authors: Aaron Bagnell, Tim DeVries
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023-04-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101004
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author Aaron Bagnell
Tim DeVries
author_facet Aaron Bagnell
Tim DeVries
author_sort Aaron Bagnell
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Barystatic sea level rise (SLR) caused by the addition of freshwater to the ocean from melting ice can in principle be recorded by a reduction in seawater salinity, but detection of this signal has been hindered by sparse data coverage and the small trends compared to natural variability. Here, we develop an autoregressive machine learning method to estimate salinity changes in the global ocean from 2001 to 2019 that reduces uncertainties in ocean freshening trends by a factor of four compared to previous estimates. We find that the ocean mass rose by 13,000 ± 3,000 Gt from 2001 to 2019, implying a barystatic SLR of 2.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr. Combined with SLR of 1.3 ± 0.1 mm/yr due to ocean thermal expansion, these results suggest that global mean sea level rose by 3.4 ± 0.6 mm/yr from 2001 to 2019. These results provide an important validation of remote‐sensing measurements of ocean mass changes, global SLR, and global ice budgets.
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spelling doaj-art-33c7de6cd04c4dcd90c43b7c87df5c3c2025-08-20T03:12:53ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072023-04-01507n/an/a10.1029/2022GL101004Global Mean Sea Level Rise Inferred From Ocean Salinity and Temperature ChangesAaron Bagnell0Tim DeVries1Interdepartmental Graduate Program in Marine Science University of California, Santa Barbara Santa Barbara CA USADepartment of Geography University of California, Santa Barbara Santa Barbara CA USAAbstract Barystatic sea level rise (SLR) caused by the addition of freshwater to the ocean from melting ice can in principle be recorded by a reduction in seawater salinity, but detection of this signal has been hindered by sparse data coverage and the small trends compared to natural variability. Here, we develop an autoregressive machine learning method to estimate salinity changes in the global ocean from 2001 to 2019 that reduces uncertainties in ocean freshening trends by a factor of four compared to previous estimates. We find that the ocean mass rose by 13,000 ± 3,000 Gt from 2001 to 2019, implying a barystatic SLR of 2.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr. Combined with SLR of 1.3 ± 0.1 mm/yr due to ocean thermal expansion, these results suggest that global mean sea level rose by 3.4 ± 0.6 mm/yr from 2001 to 2019. These results provide an important validation of remote‐sensing measurements of ocean mass changes, global SLR, and global ice budgets.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101004ocean salinityocean massglobal sea level risebarystatic sea level risethermosteric sea level riseclimate change
spellingShingle Aaron Bagnell
Tim DeVries
Global Mean Sea Level Rise Inferred From Ocean Salinity and Temperature Changes
Geophysical Research Letters
ocean salinity
ocean mass
global sea level rise
barystatic sea level rise
thermosteric sea level rise
climate change
title Global Mean Sea Level Rise Inferred From Ocean Salinity and Temperature Changes
title_full Global Mean Sea Level Rise Inferred From Ocean Salinity and Temperature Changes
title_fullStr Global Mean Sea Level Rise Inferred From Ocean Salinity and Temperature Changes
title_full_unstemmed Global Mean Sea Level Rise Inferred From Ocean Salinity and Temperature Changes
title_short Global Mean Sea Level Rise Inferred From Ocean Salinity and Temperature Changes
title_sort global mean sea level rise inferred from ocean salinity and temperature changes
topic ocean salinity
ocean mass
global sea level rise
barystatic sea level rise
thermosteric sea level rise
climate change
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101004
work_keys_str_mv AT aaronbagnell globalmeansealevelriseinferredfromoceansalinityandtemperaturechanges
AT timdevries globalmeansealevelriseinferredfromoceansalinityandtemperaturechanges