Mathematical model analysis on the significance of surveillance and awareness on the transmission dynamics of diphtheria
Corynebacterium diphtheriae is a respiratory pathogen. Diphtheria was a major source of disease and mortality, particularly in children under five years of age and those over forty years of age. However, due to the lack of vaccinations, the disease is still widespread in several countries, particul...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences
2025-11-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journal.nsps.org.ng/index.php/jnsps/article/view/2618 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850105542663471104 |
|---|---|
| author | James Andrawus Kayode Isaac Omotoso Agada Apeh Andrew Felix Yakubu Eguda Sunday Babuba Kabiru Garba Ibrahim |
| author_facet | James Andrawus Kayode Isaac Omotoso Agada Apeh Andrew Felix Yakubu Eguda Sunday Babuba Kabiru Garba Ibrahim |
| author_sort | James Andrawus |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Corynebacterium diphtheriae is a respiratory pathogen. Diphtheria was a major source of disease and mortality, particularly in children under five years of age and those over forty years of age. However, due to the lack of vaccinations, the disease is still widespread in several countries, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic. In light of the above reason, we propose a deterministic mathematical model to characterize the dynamics of diphtheria transmission, evaluating the effects of awareness and surveillance that other authors have not considered. The boundedness and positivity of the solution have been established. In addition, it has been investigated that if Rc < 1, the model shows a diphtheria-free equilibrium that is stable both locally and globally. According to the theoretical study, there is a distinct positive endemic equilibrium, and the corresponding control reproduction number is greater than one. The endemic equilibrium has also been shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the disease induces mortality, vaccination, booster vaccination, and isolation are zero. Both the diphtheria-free and the endemic equilibrium global stability are numerically justified. Model fitting and parameter estimation are obtained using the least-squares method. Numerical simulation reveals that the development of surveillance and awareness is effective in curtailing the spread of diphtheria infection. Finally, the theoretical and numerical result shows that with surveillance and awareness, the disease can be eradicated in the population in less than ten years.
|
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-33b7b14c19fc4328b1e500c1a1e30f84 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2714-2817 2714-4704 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-11-01 |
| publisher | Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-33b7b14c19fc4328b1e500c1a1e30f842025-08-20T02:39:03ZengNigerian Society of Physical SciencesJournal of Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences2714-28172714-47042025-11-017410.46481/jnsps.2025.2618Mathematical model analysis on the significance of surveillance and awareness on the transmission dynamics of diphtheriaJames AndrawusKayode Isaac OmotosoAgada Apeh AndrewFelix Yakubu EgudaSunday BabubaKabiru Garba Ibrahim Corynebacterium diphtheriae is a respiratory pathogen. Diphtheria was a major source of disease and mortality, particularly in children under five years of age and those over forty years of age. However, due to the lack of vaccinations, the disease is still widespread in several countries, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic. In light of the above reason, we propose a deterministic mathematical model to characterize the dynamics of diphtheria transmission, evaluating the effects of awareness and surveillance that other authors have not considered. The boundedness and positivity of the solution have been established. In addition, it has been investigated that if Rc < 1, the model shows a diphtheria-free equilibrium that is stable both locally and globally. According to the theoretical study, there is a distinct positive endemic equilibrium, and the corresponding control reproduction number is greater than one. The endemic equilibrium has also been shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the disease induces mortality, vaccination, booster vaccination, and isolation are zero. Both the diphtheria-free and the endemic equilibrium global stability are numerically justified. Model fitting and parameter estimation are obtained using the least-squares method. Numerical simulation reveals that the development of surveillance and awareness is effective in curtailing the spread of diphtheria infection. Finally, the theoretical and numerical result shows that with surveillance and awareness, the disease can be eradicated in the population in less than ten years. https://journal.nsps.org.ng/index.php/jnsps/article/view/2618Mathematical modelAnalysisSurveillanceTransmissionDiphtheria |
| spellingShingle | James Andrawus Kayode Isaac Omotoso Agada Apeh Andrew Felix Yakubu Eguda Sunday Babuba Kabiru Garba Ibrahim Mathematical model analysis on the significance of surveillance and awareness on the transmission dynamics of diphtheria Journal of Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences Mathematical model Analysis Surveillance Transmission Diphtheria |
| title | Mathematical model analysis on the significance of surveillance and awareness on the transmission dynamics of diphtheria |
| title_full | Mathematical model analysis on the significance of surveillance and awareness on the transmission dynamics of diphtheria |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical model analysis on the significance of surveillance and awareness on the transmission dynamics of diphtheria |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical model analysis on the significance of surveillance and awareness on the transmission dynamics of diphtheria |
| title_short | Mathematical model analysis on the significance of surveillance and awareness on the transmission dynamics of diphtheria |
| title_sort | mathematical model analysis on the significance of surveillance and awareness on the transmission dynamics of diphtheria |
| topic | Mathematical model Analysis Surveillance Transmission Diphtheria |
| url | https://journal.nsps.org.ng/index.php/jnsps/article/view/2618 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jamesandrawus mathematicalmodelanalysisonthesignificanceofsurveillanceandawarenessonthetransmissiondynamicsofdiphtheria AT kayodeisaacomotoso mathematicalmodelanalysisonthesignificanceofsurveillanceandawarenessonthetransmissiondynamicsofdiphtheria AT agadaapehandrew mathematicalmodelanalysisonthesignificanceofsurveillanceandawarenessonthetransmissiondynamicsofdiphtheria AT felixyakubueguda mathematicalmodelanalysisonthesignificanceofsurveillanceandawarenessonthetransmissiondynamicsofdiphtheria AT sundaybabuba mathematicalmodelanalysisonthesignificanceofsurveillanceandawarenessonthetransmissiondynamicsofdiphtheria AT kabirugarbaibrahim mathematicalmodelanalysisonthesignificanceofsurveillanceandawarenessonthetransmissiondynamicsofdiphtheria |