Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Turkish Economy
The phenomenon of economic growth being a leading indicator of economic progress in developing countries has long been accepted by economists and policymakers. In contrast to advanced economies, in developing economies, the pursuit of growth based on limited savings and capital accumulation often re...
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Istanbul University Press
2024-08-01
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| Series: | İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi |
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| Online Access: | https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/FB49D57CC18D4BFDA0168453DFFE7E59 |
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| author | Yağmur Yavuz Mehmetsıddık Polat |
| author_facet | Yağmur Yavuz Mehmetsıddık Polat |
| author_sort | Yağmur Yavuz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The phenomenon of economic growth being a leading indicator of economic progress in developing countries has long been accepted by economists and policymakers. In contrast to advanced economies, in developing economies, the pursuit of growth based on limited savings and capital accumulation often requires overcoming challenges through the utilisation of external resources, leading countries in this group, including Turkey, to resort to foreign borrowing. The contribution of external debt to economic growth after acquisition varies depending on the countries’ existing domestic resources and the areas in which the borrowed funds are utilised. Similarly, population growth and openness to foreign trade are key economic sources for many developing countries with limited productive resources. In this study, the external debt-economic growth relationship is discussed using economic variables based on the 1973-2021 period for the Turkish economy. Traditional unit root tests, namely the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test and the Phillips-Perron Unit Root Test, are employed in the analysis. This study also investigates the stationarity of variables using the Narayan and Popp (2010) Unit Root Test, which considers structural breaks, and the non-linear Fourier Kruse Unit Root Test developed by Güriş (2019), where structural breaks are modelled using Fourier functions. Furthermore, the long-term relationships between variables is examined using the ARDL Bound Test. The results indicate that external debt and population growth rate have a statistically significant and negative impact on economic growth, whereas the effect of openness to foreign trade on economic growth is statistically significant and positive. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-33290b2f257b4fb38402b8a46fcdb91b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2148-3876 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-08-01 |
| publisher | Istanbul University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj-art-33290b2f257b4fb38402b8a46fcdb91b2025-08-20T01:50:31ZengIstanbul University Pressİktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi2148-38762024-08-0111233435410.26650/JEPR1429732123456Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Turkish EconomyYağmur Yavuz0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9497-5172Mehmetsıddık Polat1https://orcid.org/0009-0000-9320-4878İstanbul Gedik Üniversitesi, Istanbul, Turkiyeİstanbul Gedik Üniversitesi, Istanbul, TurkiyeThe phenomenon of economic growth being a leading indicator of economic progress in developing countries has long been accepted by economists and policymakers. In contrast to advanced economies, in developing economies, the pursuit of growth based on limited savings and capital accumulation often requires overcoming challenges through the utilisation of external resources, leading countries in this group, including Turkey, to resort to foreign borrowing. The contribution of external debt to economic growth after acquisition varies depending on the countries’ existing domestic resources and the areas in which the borrowed funds are utilised. Similarly, population growth and openness to foreign trade are key economic sources for many developing countries with limited productive resources. In this study, the external debt-economic growth relationship is discussed using economic variables based on the 1973-2021 period for the Turkish economy. Traditional unit root tests, namely the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test and the Phillips-Perron Unit Root Test, are employed in the analysis. This study also investigates the stationarity of variables using the Narayan and Popp (2010) Unit Root Test, which considers structural breaks, and the non-linear Fourier Kruse Unit Root Test developed by Güriş (2019), where structural breaks are modelled using Fourier functions. Furthermore, the long-term relationships between variables is examined using the ARDL Bound Test. The results indicate that external debt and population growth rate have a statistically significant and negative impact on economic growth, whereas the effect of openness to foreign trade on economic growth is statistically significant and positive.https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/FB49D57CC18D4BFDA0168453DFFE7E59external debteconomic growthtrade opennessunit root testardl |
| spellingShingle | Yağmur Yavuz Mehmetsıddık Polat Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Turkish Economy İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi external debt economic growth trade openness unit root test ardl |
| title | Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Turkish Economy |
| title_full | Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Turkish Economy |
| title_fullStr | Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Turkish Economy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Turkish Economy |
| title_short | Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Turkish Economy |
| title_sort | relationship between external debt and economic growth an econometric analysis of the turkish economy |
| topic | external debt economic growth trade openness unit root test ardl |
| url | https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/FB49D57CC18D4BFDA0168453DFFE7E59 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yagmuryavuz relationshipbetweenexternaldebtandeconomicgrowthaneconometricanalysisoftheturkisheconomy AT mehmetsıddıkpolat relationshipbetweenexternaldebtandeconomicgrowthaneconometricanalysisoftheturkisheconomy |