Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America
We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, fo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/13/3467 |
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| author | Hsiang-He Lee Robert S. Arthur Jean-Christophe Golaz Thomas A. Edmunds Jessica L. Wert Matthew V. Signorotti Jean-Paul Watson |
| author_facet | Hsiang-He Lee Robert S. Arthur Jean-Christophe Golaz Thomas A. Edmunds Jessica L. Wert Matthew V. Signorotti Jean-Paul Watson |
| author_sort | Hsiang-He Lee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-32dbed3c7bfe4b7fb378a00c3b3bd141 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj-art-32dbed3c7bfe4b7fb378a00c3b3bd1412025-08-20T03:50:16ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732025-07-011813346710.3390/en18133467Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North AmericaHsiang-He Lee0Robert S. Arthur1Jean-Christophe Golaz2Thomas A. Edmunds3Jessica L. Wert4Matthew V. Signorotti5Jean-Paul Watson6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USAWe examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/13/3467climate changeenergy resource droughtsolar energywind energy |
| spellingShingle | Hsiang-He Lee Robert S. Arthur Jean-Christophe Golaz Thomas A. Edmunds Jessica L. Wert Matthew V. Signorotti Jean-Paul Watson Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America Energies climate change energy resource drought solar energy wind energy |
| title | Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America |
| title_full | Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America |
| title_short | Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America |
| title_sort | assessment of climate change impacts on renewable energy resources in western north america |
| topic | climate change energy resource drought solar energy wind energy |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/13/3467 |
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