Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, fo...

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Main Authors: Hsiang-He Lee, Robert S. Arthur, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jessica L. Wert, Matthew V. Signorotti, Jean-Paul Watson
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
Series:Energies
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/13/3467
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author Hsiang-He Lee
Robert S. Arthur
Jean-Christophe Golaz
Thomas A. Edmunds
Jessica L. Wert
Matthew V. Signorotti
Jean-Paul Watson
author_facet Hsiang-He Lee
Robert S. Arthur
Jean-Christophe Golaz
Thomas A. Edmunds
Jessica L. Wert
Matthew V. Signorotti
Jean-Paul Watson
author_sort Hsiang-He Lee
collection DOAJ
description We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.
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institution Kabale University
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publisher MDPI AG
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series Energies
spelling doaj-art-32dbed3c7bfe4b7fb378a00c3b3bd1412025-08-20T03:50:16ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732025-07-011813346710.3390/en18133467Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North AmericaHsiang-He Lee0Robert S. Arthur1Jean-Christophe Golaz2Thomas A. Edmunds3Jessica L. Wert4Matthew V. Signorotti5Jean-Paul Watson6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USALawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USAWe examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/13/3467climate changeenergy resource droughtsolar energywind energy
spellingShingle Hsiang-He Lee
Robert S. Arthur
Jean-Christophe Golaz
Thomas A. Edmunds
Jessica L. Wert
Matthew V. Signorotti
Jean-Paul Watson
Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America
Energies
climate change
energy resource drought
solar energy
wind energy
title Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America
title_full Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America
title_fullStr Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America
title_short Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America
title_sort assessment of climate change impacts on renewable energy resources in western north america
topic climate change
energy resource drought
solar energy
wind energy
url https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/13/3467
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AT thomasaedmunds assessmentofclimatechangeimpactsonrenewableenergyresourcesinwesternnorthamerica
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