Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in England
Abstract Background Neighbourhood exposure to takeaways can contribute negatively to diet and diet-related health outcomes. Urban planners within local authorities (LAs) in England can modify takeaway exposure through denying planning permission to new outlets in management zones around schools. LAs...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2024-11-01
|
| Series: | International Journal of Health Geographics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-024-00383-6 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850195973724176384 |
|---|---|
| author | Bochu Liu Oliver Mytton John Rahilly Ben Amies-Cull Nina Rogers Tom Bishop Michael Chang Steven Cummins Daniel Derbyshire Suzan Hassan Yuru Huang Antonieta Medina-Lara Bea Savory Richard Smith Claire Thompson Martin White Jean Adams Thomas Burgoine |
| author_facet | Bochu Liu Oliver Mytton John Rahilly Ben Amies-Cull Nina Rogers Tom Bishop Michael Chang Steven Cummins Daniel Derbyshire Suzan Hassan Yuru Huang Antonieta Medina-Lara Bea Savory Richard Smith Claire Thompson Martin White Jean Adams Thomas Burgoine |
| author_sort | Bochu Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Neighbourhood exposure to takeaways can contribute negatively to diet and diet-related health outcomes. Urban planners within local authorities (LAs) in England can modify takeaway exposure through denying planning permission to new outlets in management zones around schools. LAs sometimes refer to these as takeaway “exclusion zones”. Understanding the long-term impacts of this intervention on the takeaway retail environment and health, an important policy question, requires methods to forecast future takeaway growth and subsequent population-level exposure to takeaways. In this paper we describe a novel two-stage method to achieve this. Methods We used historic data on locations of takeaways and a time-series auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, to forecast numbers of outlets within management zones to 2031, based on historical trends, in six LAs with different urban/rural characteristics across England. Forecast performance was evaluated based on root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) scores in time-series cross-validation. Using travel-to-work data from the 2011 UK census, we then translated these forecasts of the number of takeaways within management zones into population-level exposures across home, work and commuting domains. Results Our ARIMA models outperformed exponential smoothing equivalents according to RMSE and MASE. The model was able to forecast growth in the count of takeaways up to 2031 across all six LAs, with variable growth rates by RUC (min–max: 39.4-79.3%). Manchester (classified as a non-London urban with major conurbation LA) exhibited the highest forecast growth rate (79.3%, 95% CI 61.6, 96.9) and estimated population-level takeaway exposure within management zones, increasing by 65.5 outlets per capita to 148.2 (95% CI 133.6, 162.7) outlets. Overall, urban (vs. rural) LAs were forecast stronger growth and higher population exposures. Conclusions Our two-stage forecasting approach provides a novel way to estimate long-term future takeaway growth and population-level takeaway exposure. While Manchester exhibited the strongest growth, all six LAs were forecast marked growth that might be considered a risk to public health. Our methods can be used to model future growth in other types of retail outlets and in other areas. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-32c361bcb4b242048dc0ed3eb2e0102b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1476-072X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Health Geographics |
| spelling | doaj-art-32c361bcb4b242048dc0ed3eb2e0102b2025-08-20T02:13:36ZengBMCInternational Journal of Health Geographics1476-072X2024-11-0123111610.1186/s12942-024-00383-6Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in EnglandBochu Liu0Oliver Mytton1John Rahilly2Ben Amies-Cull3Nina Rogers4Tom Bishop5Michael Chang6Steven Cummins7Daniel Derbyshire8Suzan Hassan9Yuru Huang10Antonieta Medina-Lara11Bea Savory12Richard Smith13Claire Thompson14Martin White15Jean Adams16Thomas Burgoine17Department of Urban Planning, College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji UniversityGreat Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, University College LondonMRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical MedicineNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of OxfordMRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical MedicineMRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical MedicineOffice for Health Improvement and Disparities, Department of Health and Social CareDepartment of Public Health, Environments & Society, Faculty of Public Health & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineDepartment of Public Health and Sport Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of ExeterDepartment of Public Health, Environments & Society, Faculty of Public Health & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineMRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical MedicineDepartment of Public Health and Sport Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of ExeterDepartment of Public Health, Environments & Society, Faculty of Public Health & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineDepartment of Public Health and Sport Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of ExeterSchool of Health and Social Work, University of HertfordshireMRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical MedicineMRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical MedicineMRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical MedicineAbstract Background Neighbourhood exposure to takeaways can contribute negatively to diet and diet-related health outcomes. Urban planners within local authorities (LAs) in England can modify takeaway exposure through denying planning permission to new outlets in management zones around schools. LAs sometimes refer to these as takeaway “exclusion zones”. Understanding the long-term impacts of this intervention on the takeaway retail environment and health, an important policy question, requires methods to forecast future takeaway growth and subsequent population-level exposure to takeaways. In this paper we describe a novel two-stage method to achieve this. Methods We used historic data on locations of takeaways and a time-series auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, to forecast numbers of outlets within management zones to 2031, based on historical trends, in six LAs with different urban/rural characteristics across England. Forecast performance was evaluated based on root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) scores in time-series cross-validation. Using travel-to-work data from the 2011 UK census, we then translated these forecasts of the number of takeaways within management zones into population-level exposures across home, work and commuting domains. Results Our ARIMA models outperformed exponential smoothing equivalents according to RMSE and MASE. The model was able to forecast growth in the count of takeaways up to 2031 across all six LAs, with variable growth rates by RUC (min–max: 39.4-79.3%). Manchester (classified as a non-London urban with major conurbation LA) exhibited the highest forecast growth rate (79.3%, 95% CI 61.6, 96.9) and estimated population-level takeaway exposure within management zones, increasing by 65.5 outlets per capita to 148.2 (95% CI 133.6, 162.7) outlets. Overall, urban (vs. rural) LAs were forecast stronger growth and higher population exposures. Conclusions Our two-stage forecasting approach provides a novel way to estimate long-term future takeaway growth and population-level takeaway exposure. While Manchester exhibited the strongest growth, all six LAs were forecast marked growth that might be considered a risk to public health. Our methods can be used to model future growth in other types of retail outlets and in other areas.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-024-00383-6Takeaway food outlets (“takeaways”)Fast-food outletsTakeaway management zones around schoolsExclusion zonesTime-series forecastPopulation-level exposure |
| spellingShingle | Bochu Liu Oliver Mytton John Rahilly Ben Amies-Cull Nina Rogers Tom Bishop Michael Chang Steven Cummins Daniel Derbyshire Suzan Hassan Yuru Huang Antonieta Medina-Lara Bea Savory Richard Smith Claire Thompson Martin White Jean Adams Thomas Burgoine Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in England International Journal of Health Geographics Takeaway food outlets (“takeaways”) Fast-food outlets Takeaway management zones around schools Exclusion zones Time-series forecast Population-level exposure |
| title | Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in England |
| title_full | Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in England |
| title_fullStr | Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in England |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in England |
| title_short | Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in England |
| title_sort | development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in england |
| topic | Takeaway food outlets (“takeaways”) Fast-food outlets Takeaway management zones around schools Exclusion zones Time-series forecast Population-level exposure |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12942-024-00383-6 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bochuliu developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT olivermytton developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT johnrahilly developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT benamiescull developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT ninarogers developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT tombishop developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT michaelchang developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT stevencummins developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT danielderbyshire developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT suzanhassan developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT yuruhuang developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT antonietamedinalara developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT beasavory developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT richardsmith developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT clairethompson developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT martinwhite developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT jeanadams developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland AT thomasburgoine developmentofanapproachtoforecastfuturetakeawayoutletgrowtharoundschoolsandpopulationexposuretotakeawaysinengland |