Modeling the Linkages between Bitcoin, Gold, Dollar, Crude Oil, and Stock Markets: A GARCH-EVT-Copula Approach

This paper aims to analyze and compare the ability of bitcoin, gold, and dollar to diversify the risk of traditional market such as crude oil and stock markets. Specifically, we model the linkages between bitcoin, gold, dollar, crude oil, and stock markets using the GARCH-EVT-copula approach. The re...

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Main Authors: Feng Jin, Jingwei Li, Guangchen Li
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2022-01-01
Series:Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/8901180
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author Feng Jin
Jingwei Li
Guangchen Li
author_facet Feng Jin
Jingwei Li
Guangchen Li
author_sort Feng Jin
collection DOAJ
description This paper aims to analyze and compare the ability of bitcoin, gold, and dollar to diversify the risk of traditional market such as crude oil and stock markets. Specifically, we model the linkages between bitcoin, gold, dollar, crude oil, and stock markets using the GARCH-EVT-copula approach. The results show that the gold market is in the central position among these markets, which is consistent with the status of gold as a major safe asset. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, bitcoin and the dollar also had the ability to diversify risks, although less effective than gold. However, during the COVID-19 period, gold loses its dominant position and gold, bitcoin, and dollar can no longer act as a hedge. We measure the value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of simulated portfolios constructed based on these five markets and use several backtesting methods to check the validity of the risk measures. The backtesting results show that our model can provide accurate risk measures before and within the COVID-19 period, which may help investors and risk managers construct the optimal portfolios.
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spelling doaj-art-32574a81d16148e8b79e12b03dbaae012025-08-20T03:55:03ZengWileyDiscrete Dynamics in Nature and Society1607-887X2022-01-01202210.1155/2022/8901180Modeling the Linkages between Bitcoin, Gold, Dollar, Crude Oil, and Stock Markets: A GARCH-EVT-Copula ApproachFeng Jin0Jingwei Li1Guangchen Li2School of International Trade and EconomicsSchool of Insurance and EconomicsSchool of EconomicsThis paper aims to analyze and compare the ability of bitcoin, gold, and dollar to diversify the risk of traditional market such as crude oil and stock markets. Specifically, we model the linkages between bitcoin, gold, dollar, crude oil, and stock markets using the GARCH-EVT-copula approach. The results show that the gold market is in the central position among these markets, which is consistent with the status of gold as a major safe asset. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, bitcoin and the dollar also had the ability to diversify risks, although less effective than gold. However, during the COVID-19 period, gold loses its dominant position and gold, bitcoin, and dollar can no longer act as a hedge. We measure the value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of simulated portfolios constructed based on these five markets and use several backtesting methods to check the validity of the risk measures. The backtesting results show that our model can provide accurate risk measures before and within the COVID-19 period, which may help investors and risk managers construct the optimal portfolios.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/8901180
spellingShingle Feng Jin
Jingwei Li
Guangchen Li
Modeling the Linkages between Bitcoin, Gold, Dollar, Crude Oil, and Stock Markets: A GARCH-EVT-Copula Approach
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
title Modeling the Linkages between Bitcoin, Gold, Dollar, Crude Oil, and Stock Markets: A GARCH-EVT-Copula Approach
title_full Modeling the Linkages between Bitcoin, Gold, Dollar, Crude Oil, and Stock Markets: A GARCH-EVT-Copula Approach
title_fullStr Modeling the Linkages between Bitcoin, Gold, Dollar, Crude Oil, and Stock Markets: A GARCH-EVT-Copula Approach
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the Linkages between Bitcoin, Gold, Dollar, Crude Oil, and Stock Markets: A GARCH-EVT-Copula Approach
title_short Modeling the Linkages between Bitcoin, Gold, Dollar, Crude Oil, and Stock Markets: A GARCH-EVT-Copula Approach
title_sort modeling the linkages between bitcoin gold dollar crude oil and stock markets a garch evt copula approach
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/8901180
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