Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin

One of the worst natural, economic, and social catastrophes caused by human activity is the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia. The Aral Sea’s desiccation, which has an impact on the region’s overall sustainable development, human welfare, security, and survival, is what led to the problem. This study...

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Main Authors: Olimjon Saidmamatov, Yuldoshboy Sobirov, Sardorbek Makhmudov, Peter Marty, Shahnoza Yusupova, Ergash Ibadullayev, Dilnavoz Toshnazarova
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-10-01
Series:Economies
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/10/272
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author Olimjon Saidmamatov
Yuldoshboy Sobirov
Sardorbek Makhmudov
Peter Marty
Shahnoza Yusupova
Ergash Ibadullayev
Dilnavoz Toshnazarova
author_facet Olimjon Saidmamatov
Yuldoshboy Sobirov
Sardorbek Makhmudov
Peter Marty
Shahnoza Yusupova
Ergash Ibadullayev
Dilnavoz Toshnazarova
author_sort Olimjon Saidmamatov
collection DOAJ
description One of the worst natural, economic, and social catastrophes caused by human activity is the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia. The Aral Sea’s desiccation, which has an impact on the region’s overall sustainable development, human welfare, security, and survival, is what led to the problem. This study assesses the effects of economic expansion, population ageing, life expectancy, internet usage, and greenhouse gas emissions on the fertility rate in the countries that made up the Aral Sea basin between 1990 and 2021. Several econometric techniques were used in this study, including Pooled OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) with the Driscoll–Kraay estimating method, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square), and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square). Additionally, we used the Hurlin and Dumitrescu non-cause tests to verify the causal links between the variables. The empirical findings verify that a decrease in the fertility rate among women in the nations surrounding the Aral Sea occurs when the population of a certain age (women aged 15–64 as a percentage of the total population) grows and life expectancy rises. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) also have an adverse effect on reproductive rates. Conversely, the region’s fertility rate may rise as a result of increased internet usage and economic growth. Furthermore, this study indicates that certain variables—aside from greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)—have a causal relationship with the fertility rate.
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spelling doaj-art-31d4e2cb8e40468cb212fc208ddf9c652025-08-20T02:11:09ZengMDPI AGEconomies2227-70992024-10-01121027210.3390/economies12100272Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea BasinOlimjon Saidmamatov0Yuldoshboy Sobirov1Sardorbek Makhmudov2Peter Marty3Shahnoza Yusupova4Ergash Ibadullayev5Dilnavoz Toshnazarova6Faculty of Socio-Economic Sciences, Urgench State University, Urgench 220100, UzbekistanDepartment of International Trade, Jeonbuk National University Republic of Korea, Jeonju-si 54896, Republic of KoreaDepartment of International Trade, Jeonbuk National University Republic of Korea, Jeonju-si 54896, Republic of KoreaInstitute of Natural Resource Sciences, Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW), 8820 Wädenswil, SwitzerlandDepartment of Dermatovenerology and Endocrinology, Urgench Branch of Tashkent Medical Academy, Urgench 220100, UzbekistanFaculty of Economics and Humanities, Mamun University, Khiva 220900, UzbekistanFaculty of Foreign Philology, Urgench State University, Urgench 220100, UzbekistanOne of the worst natural, economic, and social catastrophes caused by human activity is the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia. The Aral Sea’s desiccation, which has an impact on the region’s overall sustainable development, human welfare, security, and survival, is what led to the problem. This study assesses the effects of economic expansion, population ageing, life expectancy, internet usage, and greenhouse gas emissions on the fertility rate in the countries that made up the Aral Sea basin between 1990 and 2021. Several econometric techniques were used in this study, including Pooled OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) with the Driscoll–Kraay estimating method, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square), and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square). Additionally, we used the Hurlin and Dumitrescu non-cause tests to verify the causal links between the variables. The empirical findings verify that a decrease in the fertility rate among women in the nations surrounding the Aral Sea occurs when the population of a certain age (women aged 15–64 as a percentage of the total population) grows and life expectancy rises. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) also have an adverse effect on reproductive rates. Conversely, the region’s fertility rate may rise as a result of increased internet usage and economic growth. Furthermore, this study indicates that certain variables—aside from greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)—have a causal relationship with the fertility rate.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/10/272fertilityenvironmentAral Sea basinlife expectancy
spellingShingle Olimjon Saidmamatov
Yuldoshboy Sobirov
Sardorbek Makhmudov
Peter Marty
Shahnoza Yusupova
Ergash Ibadullayev
Dilnavoz Toshnazarova
Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin
Economies
fertility
environment
Aral Sea basin
life expectancy
title Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin
title_full Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin
title_fullStr Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin
title_full_unstemmed Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin
title_short Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin
title_sort dynamics of human fertility environmental pollution and socio economic factors in aral sea basin
topic fertility
environment
Aral Sea basin
life expectancy
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/10/272
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