Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin
One of the worst natural, economic, and social catastrophes caused by human activity is the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia. The Aral Sea’s desiccation, which has an impact on the region’s overall sustainable development, human welfare, security, and survival, is what led to the problem. This study...
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2024-10-01
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| author | Olimjon Saidmamatov Yuldoshboy Sobirov Sardorbek Makhmudov Peter Marty Shahnoza Yusupova Ergash Ibadullayev Dilnavoz Toshnazarova |
| author_facet | Olimjon Saidmamatov Yuldoshboy Sobirov Sardorbek Makhmudov Peter Marty Shahnoza Yusupova Ergash Ibadullayev Dilnavoz Toshnazarova |
| author_sort | Olimjon Saidmamatov |
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| description | One of the worst natural, economic, and social catastrophes caused by human activity is the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia. The Aral Sea’s desiccation, which has an impact on the region’s overall sustainable development, human welfare, security, and survival, is what led to the problem. This study assesses the effects of economic expansion, population ageing, life expectancy, internet usage, and greenhouse gas emissions on the fertility rate in the countries that made up the Aral Sea basin between 1990 and 2021. Several econometric techniques were used in this study, including Pooled OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) with the Driscoll–Kraay estimating method, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square), and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square). Additionally, we used the Hurlin and Dumitrescu non-cause tests to verify the causal links between the variables. The empirical findings verify that a decrease in the fertility rate among women in the nations surrounding the Aral Sea occurs when the population of a certain age (women aged 15–64 as a percentage of the total population) grows and life expectancy rises. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) also have an adverse effect on reproductive rates. Conversely, the region’s fertility rate may rise as a result of increased internet usage and economic growth. Furthermore, this study indicates that certain variables—aside from greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)—have a causal relationship with the fertility rate. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-31d4e2cb8e40468cb212fc208ddf9c65 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2227-7099 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Economies |
| spelling | doaj-art-31d4e2cb8e40468cb212fc208ddf9c652025-08-20T02:11:09ZengMDPI AGEconomies2227-70992024-10-01121027210.3390/economies12100272Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea BasinOlimjon Saidmamatov0Yuldoshboy Sobirov1Sardorbek Makhmudov2Peter Marty3Shahnoza Yusupova4Ergash Ibadullayev5Dilnavoz Toshnazarova6Faculty of Socio-Economic Sciences, Urgench State University, Urgench 220100, UzbekistanDepartment of International Trade, Jeonbuk National University Republic of Korea, Jeonju-si 54896, Republic of KoreaDepartment of International Trade, Jeonbuk National University Republic of Korea, Jeonju-si 54896, Republic of KoreaInstitute of Natural Resource Sciences, Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW), 8820 Wädenswil, SwitzerlandDepartment of Dermatovenerology and Endocrinology, Urgench Branch of Tashkent Medical Academy, Urgench 220100, UzbekistanFaculty of Economics and Humanities, Mamun University, Khiva 220900, UzbekistanFaculty of Foreign Philology, Urgench State University, Urgench 220100, UzbekistanOne of the worst natural, economic, and social catastrophes caused by human activity is the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia. The Aral Sea’s desiccation, which has an impact on the region’s overall sustainable development, human welfare, security, and survival, is what led to the problem. This study assesses the effects of economic expansion, population ageing, life expectancy, internet usage, and greenhouse gas emissions on the fertility rate in the countries that made up the Aral Sea basin between 1990 and 2021. Several econometric techniques were used in this study, including Pooled OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) with the Driscoll–Kraay estimating method, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square), and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square). Additionally, we used the Hurlin and Dumitrescu non-cause tests to verify the causal links between the variables. The empirical findings verify that a decrease in the fertility rate among women in the nations surrounding the Aral Sea occurs when the population of a certain age (women aged 15–64 as a percentage of the total population) grows and life expectancy rises. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) also have an adverse effect on reproductive rates. Conversely, the region’s fertility rate may rise as a result of increased internet usage and economic growth. Furthermore, this study indicates that certain variables—aside from greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)—have a causal relationship with the fertility rate.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/10/272fertilityenvironmentAral Sea basinlife expectancy |
| spellingShingle | Olimjon Saidmamatov Yuldoshboy Sobirov Sardorbek Makhmudov Peter Marty Shahnoza Yusupova Ergash Ibadullayev Dilnavoz Toshnazarova Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin Economies fertility environment Aral Sea basin life expectancy |
| title | Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin |
| title_full | Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin |
| title_fullStr | Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin |
| title_short | Dynamics of Human Fertility, Environmental Pollution, and Socio-Economic Factors in Aral Sea Basin |
| title_sort | dynamics of human fertility environmental pollution and socio economic factors in aral sea basin |
| topic | fertility environment Aral Sea basin life expectancy |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/10/272 |
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