Warming From Land Use and Land Cover Change Associated With Economic Growth in the Permafrost Regions of the Northern Hemisphere
Abstract Climate warming has resulted in permafrost degradation, leading to land use and land cover changes (LULCC). However, the impacts of LULCC on permafrost and local economies has not been quantified. Here, we analyze air and soil temperatures with gross domestic product per capita as associate...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF005987 |
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| author | Xiaoqing Peng Xuanjia Li Rong Wang Oliver W. Frauenfeld Hengxing Luo Panpan Wang Chen Yang Gubu Qiumo |
| author_facet | Xiaoqing Peng Xuanjia Li Rong Wang Oliver W. Frauenfeld Hengxing Luo Panpan Wang Chen Yang Gubu Qiumo |
| author_sort | Xiaoqing Peng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate warming has resulted in permafrost degradation, leading to land use and land cover changes (LULCC). However, the impacts of LULCC on permafrost and local economies has not been quantified. Here, we analyze air and soil temperatures with gross domestic product per capita as associated with the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of LULCC using the CMIP6 experiments and a temperature‐growth rate equation. Air temperature increased by 0.04 K due to biogeophysical processes and 0.23 K from biogeochemical processes, with corresponding soil temperature rises of 0.05 and 0.20 K, respectively. Warming from LULCC is accelerating and could result in economic growth, with a cumulative increase in gross domestic product per capita of $24,000 from biogeophysical effects, and about $470,000 from biogeochemical effects for 1995–2014. Additionally, spatial economic growth patterns indicate increases from south to north, with decreasing economic inequality. These findings could benefit the development or management policies of the future. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-31b2f7e1d05e4d8890488df226d413f3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-31b2f7e1d05e4d8890488df226d413f32025-08-20T03:27:52ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-06-01136n/an/a10.1029/2025EF005987Warming From Land Use and Land Cover Change Associated With Economic Growth in the Permafrost Regions of the Northern HemisphereXiaoqing Peng0Xuanjia Li1Rong Wang2Oliver W. Frauenfeld3Hengxing Luo4Panpan Wang5Chen Yang6Gubu Qiumo7Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaDepartment of Geography Texas A&M University College Station TX USAKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaAbstract Climate warming has resulted in permafrost degradation, leading to land use and land cover changes (LULCC). However, the impacts of LULCC on permafrost and local economies has not been quantified. Here, we analyze air and soil temperatures with gross domestic product per capita as associated with the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of LULCC using the CMIP6 experiments and a temperature‐growth rate equation. Air temperature increased by 0.04 K due to biogeophysical processes and 0.23 K from biogeochemical processes, with corresponding soil temperature rises of 0.05 and 0.20 K, respectively. Warming from LULCC is accelerating and could result in economic growth, with a cumulative increase in gross domestic product per capita of $24,000 from biogeophysical effects, and about $470,000 from biogeochemical effects for 1995–2014. Additionally, spatial economic growth patterns indicate increases from south to north, with decreasing economic inequality. These findings could benefit the development or management policies of the future.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF005987permafrostland use and land cover changeseconomic growth |
| spellingShingle | Xiaoqing Peng Xuanjia Li Rong Wang Oliver W. Frauenfeld Hengxing Luo Panpan Wang Chen Yang Gubu Qiumo Warming From Land Use and Land Cover Change Associated With Economic Growth in the Permafrost Regions of the Northern Hemisphere Earth's Future permafrost land use and land cover changes economic growth |
| title | Warming From Land Use and Land Cover Change Associated With Economic Growth in the Permafrost Regions of the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_full | Warming From Land Use and Land Cover Change Associated With Economic Growth in the Permafrost Regions of the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_fullStr | Warming From Land Use and Land Cover Change Associated With Economic Growth in the Permafrost Regions of the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_full_unstemmed | Warming From Land Use and Land Cover Change Associated With Economic Growth in the Permafrost Regions of the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_short | Warming From Land Use and Land Cover Change Associated With Economic Growth in the Permafrost Regions of the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_sort | warming from land use and land cover change associated with economic growth in the permafrost regions of the northern hemisphere |
| topic | permafrost land use and land cover changes economic growth |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF005987 |
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