Diversity Hotspots and Vulnerability of Pine Species in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Western Mexico
ABSTRACT Mexico is a global hotspot for pine diversity, with approximately 60 taxa mainly found in temperate mountainous areas. For this reason, they face increasing threats from climate change, particularly within the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO). This study aimed to identify areas with the highes...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71743 |
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| author | Lizeth Ruacho‐González José Javier Corral‐Rivas Jesús Guadalupe González‐Gallegos M. Socorro González‐Elizondo Pablito Marcelo López‐Serrano Jaime Briseño‐Reyes |
| author_facet | Lizeth Ruacho‐González José Javier Corral‐Rivas Jesús Guadalupe González‐Gallegos M. Socorro González‐Elizondo Pablito Marcelo López‐Serrano Jaime Briseño‐Reyes |
| author_sort | Lizeth Ruacho‐González |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Mexico is a global hotspot for pine diversity, with approximately 60 taxa mainly found in temperate mountainous areas. For this reason, they face increasing threats from climate change, particularly within the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO). This study aimed to identify areas with the highest potential pine richness in SMO and determine which species are at risk, using current and future potential distribution models. The distribution of 19 pine species was modeled based on 7020 records. Environmental variables were carefully selected from WorldClim 2.1, by multicollinearity elimination and then selecting those with a strong correlation to species presence (Spearman's coefficient ρ > 0.70). Models were developed in MaxEnt using the GISS E2‐1‐G model to predict future distributions in the “245” Shared Socioeconomic Pathway in a “middle of the road” scenario for 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100. The resulting species‐specific models were overlayed to identify areas most suitable to host the greatest number of species across all projections. Results indicate that the areas with environmental characteristics to host the highest number of pine species are located on the upper portions of the SMO's western slopes. Models indicate a general trend of decreasing pine distribution area in the region; with estimated reductions ranging from 22% to 29% for Pinus durangensis, P. devoniana, and P. engelmannii. The worst situation is for P. brachyptera which may practically disappear by 2060. Despite habitat reductions, species such as P. cembroides, P. devoniana, and P. oocarpa show a tendency to migrate to higher altitudes. The principal conclusions are: pine species hotspot areas are situated on the SMO's western slopes in Durango state, just above the Tropic of Cancer. Approximately 95% of the studied pine species in SMO will show reductions by the end of the century, and P. brachyptera is at risk of extirpation in Mexico. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3184b4e6c7fa4abdb9c93329b5c5dac3 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-3184b4e6c7fa4abdb9c93329b5c5dac32025-08-20T02:46:17ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582025-07-01157n/an/a10.1002/ece3.71743Diversity Hotspots and Vulnerability of Pine Species in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Western MexicoLizeth Ruacho‐González0José Javier Corral‐Rivas1Jesús Guadalupe González‐Gallegos2M. Socorro González‐Elizondo3Pablito Marcelo López‐Serrano4Jaime Briseño‐Reyes5Programa Institucional de Doctorado en Ciencias Agropecuarias y Forestales Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango Durango MexicoFacultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango Durango MexicoCentro Interdisciplinario de Investigación Para el Desarrollo Integral Regional Unidad Durango Instituto Politécnico Nacional Durango MexicoCentro Interdisciplinario de Investigación Para el Desarrollo Integral Regional Unidad Durango Instituto Politécnico Nacional Durango MexicoInstituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la Madera Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango Durango MexicoFacultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango Durango MexicoABSTRACT Mexico is a global hotspot for pine diversity, with approximately 60 taxa mainly found in temperate mountainous areas. For this reason, they face increasing threats from climate change, particularly within the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO). This study aimed to identify areas with the highest potential pine richness in SMO and determine which species are at risk, using current and future potential distribution models. The distribution of 19 pine species was modeled based on 7020 records. Environmental variables were carefully selected from WorldClim 2.1, by multicollinearity elimination and then selecting those with a strong correlation to species presence (Spearman's coefficient ρ > 0.70). Models were developed in MaxEnt using the GISS E2‐1‐G model to predict future distributions in the “245” Shared Socioeconomic Pathway in a “middle of the road” scenario for 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100. The resulting species‐specific models were overlayed to identify areas most suitable to host the greatest number of species across all projections. Results indicate that the areas with environmental characteristics to host the highest number of pine species are located on the upper portions of the SMO's western slopes. Models indicate a general trend of decreasing pine distribution area in the region; with estimated reductions ranging from 22% to 29% for Pinus durangensis, P. devoniana, and P. engelmannii. The worst situation is for P. brachyptera which may practically disappear by 2060. Despite habitat reductions, species such as P. cembroides, P. devoniana, and P. oocarpa show a tendency to migrate to higher altitudes. The principal conclusions are: pine species hotspot areas are situated on the SMO's western slopes in Durango state, just above the Tropic of Cancer. Approximately 95% of the studied pine species in SMO will show reductions by the end of the century, and P. brachyptera is at risk of extirpation in Mexico.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71743climate changediversityenvironmental variablesPinusriskspecies distribution modeling |
| spellingShingle | Lizeth Ruacho‐González José Javier Corral‐Rivas Jesús Guadalupe González‐Gallegos M. Socorro González‐Elizondo Pablito Marcelo López‐Serrano Jaime Briseño‐Reyes Diversity Hotspots and Vulnerability of Pine Species in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Western Mexico Ecology and Evolution climate change diversity environmental variables Pinus risk species distribution modeling |
| title | Diversity Hotspots and Vulnerability of Pine Species in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Western Mexico |
| title_full | Diversity Hotspots and Vulnerability of Pine Species in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Western Mexico |
| title_fullStr | Diversity Hotspots and Vulnerability of Pine Species in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Western Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | Diversity Hotspots and Vulnerability of Pine Species in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Western Mexico |
| title_short | Diversity Hotspots and Vulnerability of Pine Species in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Western Mexico |
| title_sort | diversity hotspots and vulnerability of pine species in the sierra madre occidental western mexico |
| topic | climate change diversity environmental variables Pinus risk species distribution modeling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71743 |
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