Current and Future Distribution of the <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in the Middle East and North Africa
Climate change is a major threat to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which can cause significant harm to its plant and animal species. We predicted the habitat distribution of <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in MENA using MaxEnt models under current and future clim...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2024-09-01
|
| Series: | Diversity |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/16/9/563 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850261120256835584 |
|---|---|
| author | Remya Kottarathu Kalarikkal Hotaek Park Christos Georgiadis Benoit Guénard Evan P. Economo Youngwook Kim |
| author_facet | Remya Kottarathu Kalarikkal Hotaek Park Christos Georgiadis Benoit Guénard Evan P. Economo Youngwook Kim |
| author_sort | Remya Kottarathu Kalarikkal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is a major threat to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which can cause significant harm to its plant and animal species. We predicted the habitat distribution of <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in MENA using MaxEnt models under current and future climate conditions. Our analysis indicates that the cooler regions of the MENA are projected to experience temperature increases of 1–2 °C by 2040 and 2–4 °C by the 2070s. Similarly, the warmer regions may anticipate rises of 0.5–2 °C by 2040 and 2–4 °C by the 2070s. MaxEnt model results for the current climate show good agreement with observations (mean area under the curve value of 0.975 and mean true statistical skill value of 0.8), indicating good potential habitat suitability for <i>C. nodus</i>. Significant factors affecting habitat suitability are elevation, mean monthly precipitation of the coldest quarter, temperature seasonality, and precipitation amount of the driest month. The research predicts that under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1.2.6, the habitat suitability area may increase by 6% in 2040, while SSP 3.7.0 (0.3%) and SSP 5.8.5 (2.6%) predict a decrease. For 2070, SSP 5.8.5 predicts a 2.2% reduction in habitat suitability, while SSP 1.2.6 (0.4%) and SSP 3.7.0 (1.3%) predict slight increases. The results provide insight into the potential impacts of climate change on the species and regional biodiversity changes associated with the projected species distribution. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-316d5ebf4ab44cee9e07cbd072260e4b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1424-2818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Diversity |
| spelling | doaj-art-316d5ebf4ab44cee9e07cbd072260e4b2025-08-20T01:55:30ZengMDPI AGDiversity1424-28182024-09-0116956310.3390/d16090563Current and Future Distribution of the <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in the Middle East and North AfricaRemya Kottarathu Kalarikkal0Hotaek Park1Christos Georgiadis2Benoit Guénard3Evan P. Economo4Youngwook Kim5Department of Biology, College of Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, United Arab EmiratesInstitute of Arctic Climate and Environment Research, Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine–Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka 236-0001, JapanSection of Zoology—Marine Biology, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15772 Athens, GreeceSchool of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, ChinaBiodiversity and Biocomplexity Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology, Graduate University, Onna 904-0495, JapanDepartment of Biology, College of Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, United Arab EmiratesClimate change is a major threat to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which can cause significant harm to its plant and animal species. We predicted the habitat distribution of <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in MENA using MaxEnt models under current and future climate conditions. Our analysis indicates that the cooler regions of the MENA are projected to experience temperature increases of 1–2 °C by 2040 and 2–4 °C by the 2070s. Similarly, the warmer regions may anticipate rises of 0.5–2 °C by 2040 and 2–4 °C by the 2070s. MaxEnt model results for the current climate show good agreement with observations (mean area under the curve value of 0.975 and mean true statistical skill value of 0.8), indicating good potential habitat suitability for <i>C. nodus</i>. Significant factors affecting habitat suitability are elevation, mean monthly precipitation of the coldest quarter, temperature seasonality, and precipitation amount of the driest month. The research predicts that under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1.2.6, the habitat suitability area may increase by 6% in 2040, while SSP 3.7.0 (0.3%) and SSP 5.8.5 (2.6%) predict a decrease. For 2070, SSP 5.8.5 predicts a 2.2% reduction in habitat suitability, while SSP 1.2.6 (0.4%) and SSP 3.7.0 (1.3%) predict slight increases. The results provide insight into the potential impacts of climate change on the species and regional biodiversity changes associated with the projected species distribution.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/16/9/563MaxEntSSPs<i>Cataglyphis</i>MENAhabitat suitability |
| spellingShingle | Remya Kottarathu Kalarikkal Hotaek Park Christos Georgiadis Benoit Guénard Evan P. Economo Youngwook Kim Current and Future Distribution of the <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in the Middle East and North Africa Diversity MaxEnt SSPs <i>Cataglyphis</i> MENA habitat suitability |
| title | Current and Future Distribution of the <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in the Middle East and North Africa |
| title_full | Current and Future Distribution of the <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in the Middle East and North Africa |
| title_fullStr | Current and Future Distribution of the <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in the Middle East and North Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current and Future Distribution of the <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in the Middle East and North Africa |
| title_short | Current and Future Distribution of the <i>Cataglyphis nodus</i> (Brullé, 1833) in the Middle East and North Africa |
| title_sort | current and future distribution of the i cataglyphis nodus i brulle 1833 in the middle east and north africa |
| topic | MaxEnt SSPs <i>Cataglyphis</i> MENA habitat suitability |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/16/9/563 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT remyakottarathukalarikkal currentandfuturedistributionoftheicataglyphisnodusibrulle1833inthemiddleeastandnorthafrica AT hotaekpark currentandfuturedistributionoftheicataglyphisnodusibrulle1833inthemiddleeastandnorthafrica AT christosgeorgiadis currentandfuturedistributionoftheicataglyphisnodusibrulle1833inthemiddleeastandnorthafrica AT benoitguenard currentandfuturedistributionoftheicataglyphisnodusibrulle1833inthemiddleeastandnorthafrica AT evanpeconomo currentandfuturedistributionoftheicataglyphisnodusibrulle1833inthemiddleeastandnorthafrica AT youngwookkim currentandfuturedistributionoftheicataglyphisnodusibrulle1833inthemiddleeastandnorthafrica |