Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks
Abstract Emerging systemic risks driven by climate extremes and societal vulnerabilities are causing considerable damage to supply systems and overall economies. In this study, we combined hydroclimatic hazard impact and supply-driven input-output models to develop an integrated approach for estimat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | npj Natural Hazards |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00129-9 |
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| author | Marlon Vieira Passos Jung-Ching Kan Georgia Destouni Karina Barquet Luigia Brandimarte Zahra Kalantari |
| author_facet | Marlon Vieira Passos Jung-Ching Kan Georgia Destouni Karina Barquet Luigia Brandimarte Zahra Kalantari |
| author_sort | Marlon Vieira Passos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Emerging systemic risks driven by climate extremes and societal vulnerabilities are causing considerable damage to supply systems and overall economies. In this study, we combined hydroclimatic hazard impact and supply-driven input-output models to develop an integrated approach for estimating the cascading impacts on food, electricity, and water supply associated with droughts, floods, and heatwaves. National-level results for Sweden indicate moderate to strong associations between annual supply variables and monthly climate indices (0.39 ≤ R 2 ≤ 0.62) at municipal units. Economic modeling revealed losses in key sectors, such as agriculture, energy, and insurance. The results from this economic modeling show that combined hydroclimatic hazards between 2005 and 2022 inflicted €8.4 billion of economic damage on agriculture, electricity, and insurance. Of this, flood-related damage represented the largest share, totaling €4.1 billion, followed by drought-induced supply shortages (€2.9 billion), and heatwave impacts (€2.3 billion). |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-312302cfa25e4c4d979e0c0e6f38ea9f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2948-2100 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Natural Hazards |
| spelling | doaj-art-312302cfa25e4c4d979e0c0e6f38ea9f2025-08-20T03:45:45ZengNature Portfolionpj Natural Hazards2948-21002025-08-012111210.1038/s44304-025-00129-9Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocksMarlon Vieira Passos0Jung-Ching Kan1Georgia Destouni2Karina Barquet3Luigia Brandimarte4Zahra Kalantari5Stockholm Environment InstituteStockholm Environment InstituteDepartment of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of TechnologyStockholm Environment InstituteDepartment of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of TechnologyAbstract Emerging systemic risks driven by climate extremes and societal vulnerabilities are causing considerable damage to supply systems and overall economies. In this study, we combined hydroclimatic hazard impact and supply-driven input-output models to develop an integrated approach for estimating the cascading impacts on food, electricity, and water supply associated with droughts, floods, and heatwaves. National-level results for Sweden indicate moderate to strong associations between annual supply variables and monthly climate indices (0.39 ≤ R 2 ≤ 0.62) at municipal units. Economic modeling revealed losses in key sectors, such as agriculture, energy, and insurance. The results from this economic modeling show that combined hydroclimatic hazards between 2005 and 2022 inflicted €8.4 billion of economic damage on agriculture, electricity, and insurance. Of this, flood-related damage represented the largest share, totaling €4.1 billion, followed by drought-induced supply shortages (€2.9 billion), and heatwave impacts (€2.3 billion).https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00129-9 |
| spellingShingle | Marlon Vieira Passos Jung-Ching Kan Georgia Destouni Karina Barquet Luigia Brandimarte Zahra Kalantari Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks npj Natural Hazards |
| title | Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks |
| title_full | Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks |
| title_short | Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks |
| title_sort | estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00129-9 |
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