Declining Lake Water Levels and Suitable Wind Conditions Promote Locust Outbreaks and Migration in the Kazakhstan–China Area
Outbreaks of locust plagues are becoming increasingly frequent against the backdrop of climate change. Locust outbreaks in the Caucasus and Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan, pose continuous threats to neighboring countries, including China, Kyrgyzstan, and more. However, locust outbreak foreca...
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MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Agronomy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/7/1514 |
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| author | Shiqian Feng Xiao Chang Jianguo Wu Yun Li Zehua Zhang Li Zhao Xiongbing Tu |
| author_facet | Shiqian Feng Xiao Chang Jianguo Wu Yun Li Zehua Zhang Li Zhao Xiongbing Tu |
| author_sort | Shiqian Feng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Outbreaks of locust plagues are becoming increasingly frequent against the backdrop of climate change. Locust outbreaks in the Caucasus and Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan, pose continuous threats to neighboring countries, including China, Kyrgyzstan, and more. However, locust outbreak forecasts and migration movement are yet to be studied in this area. In our study, we collected water level data in major lakes and water bodies, as well as annual average precipitation in the past 15 years in Kazakhstan, to analyze their contributions to locust outbreaks. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between overall lake water level and the following year’s locust outbreak area in Kazakhstan. Considering that the overall lake water levels in 2023 and 2024 reached a quite low level historically, we predicted heavy locust outbreaks in 2025. Furthermore, through wind field analysis and wind-born trajectory modeling, we identified two migration routes of locusts from Kazakhstan into Xinjiang, China, riding the northwest wind, with lakes near the Sino-Kazakhstan border as the main sources. Overall, our study identified high locust outbreak challenges in Kazakhstan in recent years and determined two wind-supported migration routes of locusts invading China, which are significant for guiding monitoring and prevention efforts in the Sino-Kazakhstan border area. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-30f36acfc4e54914a7e4ab377a046907 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj-art-30f36acfc4e54914a7e4ab377a0469072025-08-20T03:13:42ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952025-06-01157151410.3390/agronomy15071514Declining Lake Water Levels and Suitable Wind Conditions Promote Locust Outbreaks and Migration in the Kazakhstan–China AreaShiqian Feng0Xiao Chang1Jianguo Wu2Yun Li3Zehua Zhang4Li Zhao5Xiongbing Tu6State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, ChinaXinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Locust and Rodent Pest Forecasting and Control Center Station, Urumqi 830000, ChinaCentral Station for Forecasting and Controlling Locusts and Rats in Altay Region, Aletai 836500, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, ChinaCollege of Agriculture, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, ChinaOutbreaks of locust plagues are becoming increasingly frequent against the backdrop of climate change. Locust outbreaks in the Caucasus and Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan, pose continuous threats to neighboring countries, including China, Kyrgyzstan, and more. However, locust outbreak forecasts and migration movement are yet to be studied in this area. In our study, we collected water level data in major lakes and water bodies, as well as annual average precipitation in the past 15 years in Kazakhstan, to analyze their contributions to locust outbreaks. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between overall lake water level and the following year’s locust outbreak area in Kazakhstan. Considering that the overall lake water levels in 2023 and 2024 reached a quite low level historically, we predicted heavy locust outbreaks in 2025. Furthermore, through wind field analysis and wind-born trajectory modeling, we identified two migration routes of locusts from Kazakhstan into Xinjiang, China, riding the northwest wind, with lakes near the Sino-Kazakhstan border as the main sources. Overall, our study identified high locust outbreak challenges in Kazakhstan in recent years and determined two wind-supported migration routes of locusts invading China, which are significant for guiding monitoring and prevention efforts in the Sino-Kazakhstan border area.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/7/1514locustKazakhstan–China borderlake water levelwindmigration |
| spellingShingle | Shiqian Feng Xiao Chang Jianguo Wu Yun Li Zehua Zhang Li Zhao Xiongbing Tu Declining Lake Water Levels and Suitable Wind Conditions Promote Locust Outbreaks and Migration in the Kazakhstan–China Area Agronomy locust Kazakhstan–China border lake water level wind migration |
| title | Declining Lake Water Levels and Suitable Wind Conditions Promote Locust Outbreaks and Migration in the Kazakhstan–China Area |
| title_full | Declining Lake Water Levels and Suitable Wind Conditions Promote Locust Outbreaks and Migration in the Kazakhstan–China Area |
| title_fullStr | Declining Lake Water Levels and Suitable Wind Conditions Promote Locust Outbreaks and Migration in the Kazakhstan–China Area |
| title_full_unstemmed | Declining Lake Water Levels and Suitable Wind Conditions Promote Locust Outbreaks and Migration in the Kazakhstan–China Area |
| title_short | Declining Lake Water Levels and Suitable Wind Conditions Promote Locust Outbreaks and Migration in the Kazakhstan–China Area |
| title_sort | declining lake water levels and suitable wind conditions promote locust outbreaks and migration in the kazakhstan china area |
| topic | locust Kazakhstan–China border lake water level wind migration |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/7/1514 |
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