Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO
Abstract The boreal summer South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the South Pacific, has been proposed as a potential precursor to the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, this study demonstrates that the SPO signal during the devel...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112781 |
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| author | Suqiong Hu Wenjun Zhang Feng Jiang |
| author_facet | Suqiong Hu Wenjun Zhang Feng Jiang |
| author_sort | Suqiong Hu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The boreal summer South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the South Pacific, has been proposed as a potential precursor to the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, this study demonstrates that the SPO signal during the developing summer of ENSO events is primarily driven by the concurrent ENSO‐related tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, challenging its role as an independent predictor of ENSO. We further show that those winter ENSO events preceded by a summer SPO signal begin to develop before the SPO signal in the extratropics appear, and incorporating the summer SPO signal into ENSO persitence model does not add additional information for ENSO hindcast. The observational findings are further corroborated by evidence that the lead relationship of SPO over ENSO in climate models is mainly determined by their simulated ENSO teleconnection to SPO during summer. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-303505a6bc8d4dd7a51eb600d81f3be0 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-303505a6bc8d4dd7a51eb600d81f3be02025-08-20T02:57:05ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-02-01523n/an/a10.1029/2024GL112781Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSOSuqiong Hu0Wenjun Zhang1Feng Jiang2CIC‐FEMD/KLME, State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaCIC‐FEMD/KLME, State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaLamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University New York NY USAAbstract The boreal summer South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the South Pacific, has been proposed as a potential precursor to the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, this study demonstrates that the SPO signal during the developing summer of ENSO events is primarily driven by the concurrent ENSO‐related tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, challenging its role as an independent predictor of ENSO. We further show that those winter ENSO events preceded by a summer SPO signal begin to develop before the SPO signal in the extratropics appear, and incorporating the summer SPO signal into ENSO persitence model does not add additional information for ENSO hindcast. The observational findings are further corroborated by evidence that the lead relationship of SPO over ENSO in climate models is mainly determined by their simulated ENSO teleconnection to SPO during summer.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112781ENSOENSO teleconnectionsummer SPOinterannual variability |
| spellingShingle | Suqiong Hu Wenjun Zhang Feng Jiang Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO Geophysical Research Letters ENSO ENSO teleconnection summer SPO interannual variability |
| title | Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO |
| title_full | Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO |
| title_fullStr | Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO |
| title_short | Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO |
| title_sort | understanding the relationship between south pacific oscillation and enso |
| topic | ENSO ENSO teleconnection summer SPO interannual variability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112781 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT suqionghu understandingtherelationshipbetweensouthpacificoscillationandenso AT wenjunzhang understandingtherelationshipbetweensouthpacificoscillationandenso AT fengjiang understandingtherelationshipbetweensouthpacificoscillationandenso |