Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO

Abstract The boreal summer South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the South Pacific, has been proposed as a potential precursor to the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, this study demonstrates that the SPO signal during the devel...

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Main Authors: Suqiong Hu, Wenjun Zhang, Feng Jiang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-02-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112781
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author Suqiong Hu
Wenjun Zhang
Feng Jiang
author_facet Suqiong Hu
Wenjun Zhang
Feng Jiang
author_sort Suqiong Hu
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The boreal summer South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the South Pacific, has been proposed as a potential precursor to the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, this study demonstrates that the SPO signal during the developing summer of ENSO events is primarily driven by the concurrent ENSO‐related tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, challenging its role as an independent predictor of ENSO. We further show that those winter ENSO events preceded by a summer SPO signal begin to develop before the SPO signal in the extratropics appear, and incorporating the summer SPO signal into ENSO persitence model does not add additional information for ENSO hindcast. The observational findings are further corroborated by evidence that the lead relationship of SPO over ENSO in climate models is mainly determined by their simulated ENSO teleconnection to SPO during summer.
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series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-303505a6bc8d4dd7a51eb600d81f3be02025-08-20T02:57:05ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-02-01523n/an/a10.1029/2024GL112781Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSOSuqiong Hu0Wenjun Zhang1Feng Jiang2CIC‐FEMD/KLME, State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaCIC‐FEMD/KLME, State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaLamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University New York NY USAAbstract The boreal summer South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the South Pacific, has been proposed as a potential precursor to the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, this study demonstrates that the SPO signal during the developing summer of ENSO events is primarily driven by the concurrent ENSO‐related tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, challenging its role as an independent predictor of ENSO. We further show that those winter ENSO events preceded by a summer SPO signal begin to develop before the SPO signal in the extratropics appear, and incorporating the summer SPO signal into ENSO persitence model does not add additional information for ENSO hindcast. The observational findings are further corroborated by evidence that the lead relationship of SPO over ENSO in climate models is mainly determined by their simulated ENSO teleconnection to SPO during summer.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112781ENSOENSO teleconnectionsummer SPOinterannual variability
spellingShingle Suqiong Hu
Wenjun Zhang
Feng Jiang
Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO
Geophysical Research Letters
ENSO
ENSO teleconnection
summer SPO
interannual variability
title Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO
title_full Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO
title_fullStr Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO
title_full_unstemmed Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO
title_short Understanding the Relationship Between South Pacific Oscillation and ENSO
title_sort understanding the relationship between south pacific oscillation and enso
topic ENSO
ENSO teleconnection
summer SPO
interannual variability
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112781
work_keys_str_mv AT suqionghu understandingtherelationshipbetweensouthpacificoscillationandenso
AT wenjunzhang understandingtherelationshipbetweensouthpacificoscillationandenso
AT fengjiang understandingtherelationshipbetweensouthpacificoscillationandenso