Intertemporal climate dynamics and trends in head cabbage (Brassica oleracea) production in Ethiopia
Abstract Ethiopia’s agriculture is highly susceptible to climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed systems, limited adaptive infrastructure, and a rapidly growing population. Despite head cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata) being economically and nutritionally significant, its response to...
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2025-07-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01593-z |
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| author | Tsegamariam Dula Sherka Abeba Sewunet Shiferie |
| author_facet | Tsegamariam Dula Sherka Abeba Sewunet Shiferie |
| author_sort | Tsegamariam Dula Sherka |
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| description | Abstract Ethiopia’s agriculture is highly susceptible to climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed systems, limited adaptive infrastructure, and a rapidly growing population. Despite head cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata) being economically and nutritionally significant, its response to long-term climate variability has received limited attention. This study investigates the relationship between climate dynamics and head cabbage production in Ethiopia over 30 years (1993–2022), using secondary time-series data from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), World Bank Indicators (WBI), and the Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency (ECSA). Key variables analyzed include temperature, precipitation, greenhouse gas emissions, fertilizer usage, agricultural employment, forest cover, and crop-specific production data (area, yield, and output). Pearson correlation and multiple regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the influence of these variables on cabbage production. The results indicate that total fertilizer consumption (β = 0.0057, p < 0.05), total employment (β = 0.00102), and greenhouse gas emissions (β = 0.0576) had significant positive effects on production. Conversely, temperature and forest cover were weakly or negatively associated. Over the study period, head cabbage production rose sharply from 117 tons in 1993 to 63,400 tons in 2022, with the cultivated area expanding from 0.12 to 74.5 km2. However, yield remained inconsistent, influenced by both climatic and management factors. The study concludes that socio-economic drivers, particularly labor and input use, are more decisive than climate variables, although precipitation remains a key climatic factor. Policy recommendations include scaling up climate-smart agriculture, strengthening input supply systems, and investing in irrigation to mitigate rainfall variability. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2ffe627b4bdb4804a7982f122668be98 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2662-9984 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
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| spelling | doaj-art-2ffe627b4bdb4804a7982f122668be982025-08-20T03:04:11ZengSpringerDiscover Sustainability2662-99842025-07-016112510.1007/s43621-025-01593-zIntertemporal climate dynamics and trends in head cabbage (Brassica oleracea) production in EthiopiaTsegamariam Dula Sherka0Abeba Sewunet Shiferie1Center for Rural Development, Addis Ababa UniversityDepartment of Plant Science, Bahir Dar UniversityAbstract Ethiopia’s agriculture is highly susceptible to climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed systems, limited adaptive infrastructure, and a rapidly growing population. Despite head cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata) being economically and nutritionally significant, its response to long-term climate variability has received limited attention. This study investigates the relationship between climate dynamics and head cabbage production in Ethiopia over 30 years (1993–2022), using secondary time-series data from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), World Bank Indicators (WBI), and the Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency (ECSA). Key variables analyzed include temperature, precipitation, greenhouse gas emissions, fertilizer usage, agricultural employment, forest cover, and crop-specific production data (area, yield, and output). Pearson correlation and multiple regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the influence of these variables on cabbage production. The results indicate that total fertilizer consumption (β = 0.0057, p < 0.05), total employment (β = 0.00102), and greenhouse gas emissions (β = 0.0576) had significant positive effects on production. Conversely, temperature and forest cover were weakly or negatively associated. Over the study period, head cabbage production rose sharply from 117 tons in 1993 to 63,400 tons in 2022, with the cultivated area expanding from 0.12 to 74.5 km2. However, yield remained inconsistent, influenced by both climatic and management factors. The study concludes that socio-economic drivers, particularly labor and input use, are more decisive than climate variables, although precipitation remains a key climatic factor. Policy recommendations include scaling up climate-smart agriculture, strengthening input supply systems, and investing in irrigation to mitigate rainfall variability.https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01593-zClimate changeHead cabbage productionEthiopiaGreenhouse gas emissions |
| spellingShingle | Tsegamariam Dula Sherka Abeba Sewunet Shiferie Intertemporal climate dynamics and trends in head cabbage (Brassica oleracea) production in Ethiopia Discover Sustainability Climate change Head cabbage production Ethiopia Greenhouse gas emissions |
| title | Intertemporal climate dynamics and trends in head cabbage (Brassica oleracea) production in Ethiopia |
| title_full | Intertemporal climate dynamics and trends in head cabbage (Brassica oleracea) production in Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Intertemporal climate dynamics and trends in head cabbage (Brassica oleracea) production in Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Intertemporal climate dynamics and trends in head cabbage (Brassica oleracea) production in Ethiopia |
| title_short | Intertemporal climate dynamics and trends in head cabbage (Brassica oleracea) production in Ethiopia |
| title_sort | intertemporal climate dynamics and trends in head cabbage brassica oleracea production in ethiopia |
| topic | Climate change Head cabbage production Ethiopia Greenhouse gas emissions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01593-z |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tsegamariamdulasherka intertemporalclimatedynamicsandtrendsinheadcabbagebrassicaoleraceaproductioninethiopia AT abebasewunetshiferie intertemporalclimatedynamicsandtrendsinheadcabbagebrassicaoleraceaproductioninethiopia |