COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves.
<h4>Objectives</h4>The COVID-19 pandemic showed distinct waves where cases ebbed and flowed. While each country had slight, nuanced differences, lessons from each wave with country-specific details provides important lessons for prevention, understanding medical outcomes and the role of...
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281326 |
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| author | Taimoor Ahmad Mujahid Abdullah Abdul Mueed Faisal Sultan Ayesha Khan Adnan Ahmad Khan |
| author_facet | Taimoor Ahmad Mujahid Abdullah Abdul Mueed Faisal Sultan Ayesha Khan Adnan Ahmad Khan |
| author_sort | Taimoor Ahmad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Objectives</h4>The COVID-19 pandemic showed distinct waves where cases ebbed and flowed. While each country had slight, nuanced differences, lessons from each wave with country-specific details provides important lessons for prevention, understanding medical outcomes and the role of vaccines. This paper compares key characteristics from the five different COVID-19 waves in Pakistan.<h4>Methods</h4>Data was sourced from daily national situation reports (Sitreps) prepared by the National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) in Islamabad. We use specific criteria to define COVID-19 waves. The start of each COVID-19 wave is marked by the day of the lowest number of daily cases preceding a sustained increase, while the end is the day with the lowest number of cases following a 7-days decline, which should be lower than the 7 days following it. Key variables such as COVID-19 tests, cases, and deaths with their rates of change to the peak and then to the trough are used to draw descriptive comparisons. Additionally, a linear regression model estimates daily new COVID-19 deaths in Pakistan.<h4>Results</h4>Pakistan saw five distinct waves, each of which displayed the typical topology of a complete infectious disease epidemic. The time from wave-start to peak became progressively shorter, and from wave-peak to trough, progressively longer. Each wave appears to also be getting shorter, except for wave 4, which lasted longer than wave 3. A one percent increase in vaccinations decreased deaths by 0.38% (95% CI: -0.67, -0.08) in wave 5 and the association is statistically significant.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Each wave displayed distinct characteristics that must be interpreted in the context of the level of response and the variant driving the epidemic. Key indicators suggest that COVID-19 preventive measures kept pace with the disease. Waves 1 and 2 were mainly about prevention and learning how to clinically manage patients. Vaccination started late during wave 3 and its impact on hospitalizations and deaths became visible in wave 5. The impact of highly virulent strains Alpha/B.1.1.7 and Delta/B.1.617.2 variants during wave 3 and milder but more infectious Omicron/B.1.1.529 during wave 5 are apparent. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2ff6d42d9e4e41d1b6aa31e003a52983 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
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| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-2ff6d42d9e4e41d1b6aa31e003a529832025-08-20T02:38:56ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-011812e028132610.1371/journal.pone.0281326COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves.Taimoor AhmadMujahid AbdullahAbdul MueedFaisal SultanAyesha KhanAdnan Ahmad Khan<h4>Objectives</h4>The COVID-19 pandemic showed distinct waves where cases ebbed and flowed. While each country had slight, nuanced differences, lessons from each wave with country-specific details provides important lessons for prevention, understanding medical outcomes and the role of vaccines. This paper compares key characteristics from the five different COVID-19 waves in Pakistan.<h4>Methods</h4>Data was sourced from daily national situation reports (Sitreps) prepared by the National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) in Islamabad. We use specific criteria to define COVID-19 waves. The start of each COVID-19 wave is marked by the day of the lowest number of daily cases preceding a sustained increase, while the end is the day with the lowest number of cases following a 7-days decline, which should be lower than the 7 days following it. Key variables such as COVID-19 tests, cases, and deaths with their rates of change to the peak and then to the trough are used to draw descriptive comparisons. Additionally, a linear regression model estimates daily new COVID-19 deaths in Pakistan.<h4>Results</h4>Pakistan saw five distinct waves, each of which displayed the typical topology of a complete infectious disease epidemic. The time from wave-start to peak became progressively shorter, and from wave-peak to trough, progressively longer. Each wave appears to also be getting shorter, except for wave 4, which lasted longer than wave 3. A one percent increase in vaccinations decreased deaths by 0.38% (95% CI: -0.67, -0.08) in wave 5 and the association is statistically significant.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Each wave displayed distinct characteristics that must be interpreted in the context of the level of response and the variant driving the epidemic. Key indicators suggest that COVID-19 preventive measures kept pace with the disease. Waves 1 and 2 were mainly about prevention and learning how to clinically manage patients. Vaccination started late during wave 3 and its impact on hospitalizations and deaths became visible in wave 5. The impact of highly virulent strains Alpha/B.1.1.7 and Delta/B.1.617.2 variants during wave 3 and milder but more infectious Omicron/B.1.1.529 during wave 5 are apparent.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281326 |
| spellingShingle | Taimoor Ahmad Mujahid Abdullah Abdul Mueed Faisal Sultan Ayesha Khan Adnan Ahmad Khan COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves. PLoS ONE |
| title | COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves. |
| title_full | COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves. |
| title_fullStr | COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves. |
| title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves. |
| title_short | COVID-19 in Pakistan: A national analysis of five pandemic waves. |
| title_sort | covid 19 in pakistan a national analysis of five pandemic waves |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281326 |
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