Suitability of the Amazonas region for beekeeping and its future distribution under climate change scenarios
Beekeeping plays an important role in global food production and the conservation of wild species. However, determining territorial suitability and future distribution under climate change scenarios is a relatively understudied area in Peru. This study assessed the beekeeping suitability of the Amaz...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Ecological Informatics |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125000913 |
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| author | Darwin Gómez-Fernández Ligia García Jhonsy O. Silva-López Jaris Veneros Guevara Erick Arellanos Carrión Rolando Salas-Lopez Malluri Goñas Nilton Atalaya-Marin Manuel Oliva-Cruz Nilton B. Rojas-Briceño |
| author_facet | Darwin Gómez-Fernández Ligia García Jhonsy O. Silva-López Jaris Veneros Guevara Erick Arellanos Carrión Rolando Salas-Lopez Malluri Goñas Nilton Atalaya-Marin Manuel Oliva-Cruz Nilton B. Rojas-Briceño |
| author_sort | Darwin Gómez-Fernández |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Beekeeping plays an important role in global food production and the conservation of wild species. However, determining territorial suitability and future distribution under climate change scenarios is a relatively understudied area in Peru. This study assessed the beekeeping suitability of the Amazonas region and its variation under climate change scenarios in two projected periods (2041–2060 and 2081–2100), according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The methodological framework integrated the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and the Hadley Centre Global Earth Model - Global Coupled configuration 3.1 (HadGEM3-GC31-LL) was used for future climate analysis. The beekeeping suitability of the region was determined based on eleven criteria: four climatic, three topographic, and four environmental. The results indicate that beekeeping suitability is distributed as follows: 3.4 % (1417.90 km2) with ‘High’ suitability, 79.2 % (33,318.61 km2) with ‘Moderate’ suitability, 17.2 % (7230.26 km2) with ‘Marginal’ suitability, and 0.2 % (83.64 km2) as ‘Not suitable’. Moreover, the average temperature across the region is projected to increase by approximately 3 °C under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and between 6 °C and 8 °C under the SSP5–8.5 scenario during the projected periods. Precipitation will decrease in the northern part of the region, while the southwestern part will experience an increase. In the highly suitable beekeeping area, a temperature increases up to 10.8 °C is expected, with frequent variations around 3 °C to 8 °C, affecting more than 500 km2. Additionally, a reduction in precipitation up to 311 mm/year is projected, with predominant variations ranging from −49.5 to −32.8 mm/year over approximately 600 km2.Therefore, it is suggested to implement strategies to mitigate these upcoming challenges, particularly if the modeled economic development under the SSPs continues. This study modeled and mapped areas with present conditions suitable for beekeeping and future climate behavior. The modeling aims to guide beekeepers and local authorities in developing sustainable practices and implementing preventive measures to address future climatic challenges. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2f8e000b873648f392cddc5784c430ed |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1574-9541 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Ecological Informatics |
| spelling | doaj-art-2f8e000b873648f392cddc5784c430ed2025-08-20T03:10:29ZengElsevierEcological Informatics1574-95412025-07-018710308210.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103082Suitability of the Amazonas region for beekeeping and its future distribution under climate change scenariosDarwin Gómez-Fernández0Ligia García1Jhonsy O. Silva-López2Jaris Veneros Guevara3Erick Arellanos Carrión4Rolando Salas-Lopez5Malluri Goñas6Nilton Atalaya-Marin7Manuel Oliva-Cruz8Nilton B. Rojas-Briceño9Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, Peru; Centro Experimental Yanayacu, Dirección de Supervisión y Monitoreo en las Estaciones Experimentales Agrarias, Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria (INIA), Carretera Jaén San Ignacio KM 23.7, Jaén 06801, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, Peru; Corresponding author.Laboratorio de Agrostología – AGROLAB, Facultad de Ingeniería Zootecnista, Agronegocios y Biotecnología, UNTRM, Chachapoyas 01001, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruCentro Experimental Yanayacu, Dirección de Supervisión y Monitoreo en las Estaciones Experimentales Agrarias, Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria (INIA), Carretera Jaén San Ignacio KM 23.7, Jaén 06801, PeruCentro Experimental Yanayacu, Dirección de Supervisión y Monitoreo en las Estaciones Experimentales Agrarias, Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria (INIA), Carretera Jaén San Ignacio KM 23.7, Jaén 06801, PeruInstituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza (UNTRM), Chachapoyas 01001, PeruGrupo de Investigación en Ciencia de la Información Geoespacial, Instituto de Investigación para el desarrollo del Perú, Universidad Nacional de Moquegua, Pacocha 18610, PeruBeekeeping plays an important role in global food production and the conservation of wild species. However, determining territorial suitability and future distribution under climate change scenarios is a relatively understudied area in Peru. This study assessed the beekeeping suitability of the Amazonas region and its variation under climate change scenarios in two projected periods (2041–2060 and 2081–2100), according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The methodological framework integrated the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and the Hadley Centre Global Earth Model - Global Coupled configuration 3.1 (HadGEM3-GC31-LL) was used for future climate analysis. The beekeeping suitability of the region was determined based on eleven criteria: four climatic, three topographic, and four environmental. The results indicate that beekeeping suitability is distributed as follows: 3.4 % (1417.90 km2) with ‘High’ suitability, 79.2 % (33,318.61 km2) with ‘Moderate’ suitability, 17.2 % (7230.26 km2) with ‘Marginal’ suitability, and 0.2 % (83.64 km2) as ‘Not suitable’. Moreover, the average temperature across the region is projected to increase by approximately 3 °C under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and between 6 °C and 8 °C under the SSP5–8.5 scenario during the projected periods. Precipitation will decrease in the northern part of the region, while the southwestern part will experience an increase. In the highly suitable beekeeping area, a temperature increases up to 10.8 °C is expected, with frequent variations around 3 °C to 8 °C, affecting more than 500 km2. Additionally, a reduction in precipitation up to 311 mm/year is projected, with predominant variations ranging from −49.5 to −32.8 mm/year over approximately 600 km2.Therefore, it is suggested to implement strategies to mitigate these upcoming challenges, particularly if the modeled economic development under the SSPs continues. This study modeled and mapped areas with present conditions suitable for beekeeping and future climate behavior. The modeling aims to guide beekeepers and local authorities in developing sustainable practices and implementing preventive measures to address future climatic challenges.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125000913BeekeepingSuitabilityClimate changeShared socio-economic pathwaysDistributionAmazonas |
| spellingShingle | Darwin Gómez-Fernández Ligia García Jhonsy O. Silva-López Jaris Veneros Guevara Erick Arellanos Carrión Rolando Salas-Lopez Malluri Goñas Nilton Atalaya-Marin Manuel Oliva-Cruz Nilton B. Rojas-Briceño Suitability of the Amazonas region for beekeeping and its future distribution under climate change scenarios Ecological Informatics Beekeeping Suitability Climate change Shared socio-economic pathways Distribution Amazonas |
| title | Suitability of the Amazonas region for beekeeping and its future distribution under climate change scenarios |
| title_full | Suitability of the Amazonas region for beekeeping and its future distribution under climate change scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Suitability of the Amazonas region for beekeeping and its future distribution under climate change scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Suitability of the Amazonas region for beekeeping and its future distribution under climate change scenarios |
| title_short | Suitability of the Amazonas region for beekeeping and its future distribution under climate change scenarios |
| title_sort | suitability of the amazonas region for beekeeping and its future distribution under climate change scenarios |
| topic | Beekeeping Suitability Climate change Shared socio-economic pathways Distribution Amazonas |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125000913 |
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